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Thread: More Banjo: Week 5 @ Dallas

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  1. #1
    Legendary Rat HOFer vince's Avatar
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    I'm not saying Adams is a true #1, but he played like one when it mattered most. "Gimme the ball Arod."

    You gotta be happy for him after being strapped down, carted off and ambulanced to the hospital last week.

  2. #2
    Legendary Rat HOFer vince's Avatar
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    I may be overly exuberant yet, but that feels like it could be a transformational experience for Adams. He will become known as Big Play Davante.

  3. #3
    OK 2 point break down. I was confident the first time I ran through in in GD thread. Less confident when I posted it in Banjo, so let's take it apart.

    First things first, the operation as Zook calls the snap and hold were better in second half, but I doubt anyone was oozing confidence in TAYBOR™ and Vogel. So the advantage might have been greater given their performance in this game.

    Remember Cowboys are built to mil clock, even with Packer defense coming back in second half, Cowboys drives were long and time consuming.

    28-24 after Randall Pick 6. No matter what Cowboys can't get a FG to stay in game.

    If you make a 2 pointer, you are up 6. If they score it and go for 1 (30-31), you can win with FG

    If you miss 2 PT, you are up 4. If they score and go for 1 (28-31), FG ties it. They could go for 2 to force you to get T, but I doubt it when odds are high of a tie at home.

    If you kick the PAT and make it, 29-31 after Cowboy score. Depending on clock, VERY good chance the Boys go for 2. Kicking a PAT for a 2 point lead is no different for 1 point lead.

    If you kick the PAT and miss (a definite possibility today at 32 yards), 28-31 after Dallas TD, they will not got for 2 and a FG nets a tie.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  4. #4
    Legendary Rat HOFer vince's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pbmax View Post
    OK 2 point break down. I was confident the first time I ran through in in GD thread. Less confident when I posted it in Banjo, so let's take it apart.

    First things first, the operation as Zook calls the snap and hold were better in second half, but I doubt anyone was oozing confidence in TAYBOR™ and Vogel. So the advantage might have been greater given their performance in this game.

    Remember Cowboys are built to mil clock, even with Packer defense coming back in second half, Cowboys drives were long and time consuming.

    28-24 after Randall Pick 6. No matter what Cowboys can't get a FG to stay in game.

    If you make a 2 pointer, you are up 6. If they score it and go for 1 (30-31), you can win with FG

    If you miss 2 PT, you are up 4. If they score and go for 1 (28-31), FG ties it. They could go for 2 to force you to get T, but I doubt it when odds are high of a tie at home.

    If you kick the PAT and make it, 29-31 after Cowboy score. Depending on clock, VERY good chance the Boys go for 2. Kicking a PAT for a 2 point lead is no different for 1 point lead.

    If you kick the PAT and miss (a definite possibility today at 32 yards), 28-31 after Dallas TD, they will not got for 2 and a FG nets a tie.
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...or-2-for-real/
    The chart I looked at (link above) says that when up 4, the two options are "The Same" in terms of win probability.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by vince View Post
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...or-2-for-real/
    The chart I looked at (link above) says that when up 4, the two options are "The Same" in terms of win probability.
    I could see that. The operation on the kicking team probably tilts in in the 2 pointers favor then.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  6. #6
    Senior Rat HOFer Bossman641's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pbmax View Post
    OK 2 point break down. I was confident the first time I ran through in in GD thread. Less confident when I posted it in Banjo, so let's take it apart.

    First things first, the operation as Zook calls the snap and hold were better in second half, but I doubt anyone was oozing confidence in TAYBOR™ and Vogel. So the advantage might have been greater given their performance in this game.

    Remember Cowboys are built to mil clock, even with Packer defense coming back in second half, Cowboys drives were long and time consuming.

    28-24 after Randall Pick 6. No matter what Cowboys can't get a FG to stay in game.

    If you make a 2 pointer, you are up 6. If they score it and go for 1 (30-31), you can win with FG

    If you miss 2 PT, you are up 4. If they score and go for 1 (28-31), FG ties it. They could go for 2 to force you to get T, but I doubt it when odds are high of a tie at home.

    If you kick the PAT and make it, 29-31 after Cowboy score. Depending on clock, VERY good chance the Boys go for 2. Kicking a PAT for a 2 point lead is no different for 1 point lead.

    If you kick the PAT and miss (a definite possibility today at 32 yards), 28-31 after Dallas TD, they will not got for 2 and a FG nets a tie.
    I'm not following the reasoning behind going for 2. Kick the XP and go up 29-24. If Dallas scores the TD, they will go for 2 to make it 29-32. If they fail, a FG wins the game for us. Even if they convert, a FG ties the game. Does it basically boil down to MM felt better about the offense's ability to convert a 2 PT try then he did the defense's ability to stop a 2 pt try?
    Go PACK

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Bossman641 View Post
    I'm not following the reasoning behind going for 2. Kick the XP and go up 29-24. If Dallas scores the TD, they will go for 2 to make it 29-32. If they fail, a FG wins the game for us. Even if they convert, a FG ties the game. Does it basically boil down to MM felt better about the offense's ability to convert a 2 PT try then he did the defense's ability to stop a 2 pt try?
    I think the PAT operation being problematic was definitely a factor.

    The website someone found (538 I think) had it as even money for a typical scenario (which doesn't take into account the poor performance).
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  8. #8
    Postal Rat HOFer Joemailman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bossman641 View Post
    I'm not following the reasoning behind going for 2. Kick the XP and go up 29-24. If Dallas scores the TD, they will go for 2 to make it 29-32. If they fail, a FG wins the game for us. Even if they convert, a FG ties the game. Does it basically boil down to MM felt better about the offense's ability to convert a 2 PT try then he did the defense's ability to stop a 2 pt try?
    There was 10 minutes left in the game. Plenty of time for Dallas to potentially get the ball back twice. If you kick the xtra point to go up 5, Dallas doesn't even need a TD to win. They can beat you with 2 FG's.
    Ring the bells that still can ring
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  9. #9
    Roadkill Rat HOFer mraynrand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joemailman View Post
    There was 10 minutes left in the game. Plenty of time for Dallas to potentially get the ball back twice. If you kick the xtra point to go up 5, Dallas doesn't even need a TD to win. They can beat you with 2 FG's.
    good point
    "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

  10. #10
    Legendary Rat HOFer vince's Avatar
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    Rodgers delivered 3 4th Q comebacks in one game. Unclutch indeed.

    Oops. One goes to Randall actually.

  11. #11
    Jumbo Rat HOFer
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    I loved the Troy call that Bacteria caused the sack and then the camera pans to Bacteria on the sideline in street clothes. Totally priceless.
    But Rodgers leads the league in frumpy expressions and negative body language on the sideline, which makes him, like Josh Allen, a unique double threat.

    -Tim Harmston

  12. #12
    Fried Rat HOFer KYPack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThunderDan View Post
    I loved the Troy call that Bacteria caused the sack and then the camera pans to Bacteria on the sideline in street clothes. Totally priceless.
    I was hootin' my ass off at that.

    Buck and Ache-man have got to go.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by ThunderDan View Post
    I loved the Troy call that Bacteria caused the sack and then the camera pans to Bacteria on the sideline in street clothes. Totally priceless.
    There is a link to Twitter video of it in one of my game day posts.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  14. #14
    Aikman was convinced that Rodgers was chafing at the limited offense due to new guys.

    Maybe there was something to that.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by pbmax View Post
    Aikman was convinced that Rodgers was chafing at the limited offense due to new guys.

    Maybe there was something to that.
    That one piqued my interest too.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by ThunderDan View Post
    I loved the Troy call that Bacteria caused the sack and then the camera pans to Bacteria on the sideline in street clothes. Totally priceless.
    This was so funny. The 5-10 second pause where he didn't know what to say had me LOLing!

  17. #17
    Aikmans bias was unreal today. The way he talks shit about the Pack, Rodgers and M3 turns my stomach. /s

  18. #18
    Postal Rat HOFer Joemailman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by George Cumby View Post
    Aikmans bias was unreal today. The way he talks shit about the Pack, Rodgers and M3 turns my stomach. /s
    I don't hear the bias. Pretty sure he said the penalty on Martinez was a bad call. You're saying he doesn't praise Rodgers? I think he does regularly.
    Ring the bells that still can ring
    Forget your perfect offering
    There is a crack, a crack in everything
    That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen

  19. #19
    /s = sarcasm

    IMO Aikman holds the Pack in high esteem. At one point he thought there was pass interference on the Pack; he sees the replay and corrects himself and says “Meh, good non-call.”

  20. #20
    Postal Rat HOFer Joemailman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by George Cumby View Post
    /s = sarcasm

    IMO Aikman holds the Pack in high esteem. At one point he thought there was pass interference on the Pack; he sees the replay and corrects himself and says “Meh, good non-call.”
    Ring the bells that still can ring
    Forget your perfect offering
    There is a crack, a crack in everything
    That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen

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