Defense Spending

[mraynrand]

I think people generally underestimate the effect of the loss of Shields.

[pbmax]

I think people generally underestimate the effect of the loss of Shields.

Probably, but many of the traits of failure pre and post date Sam's injury.

[Patler]

I think people generally underestimate the effect of the loss of Shields.

It's not just Shields.

Losing a guy like Collins so early in his career, when he was Pro-Bowl caliber and still ascending, hurt the defense for not only the years he would have played, but also for the missed opportunities with players at other positions as they tried to find his replacement. Would they have still drafted HHCD with Collins and Burnett on their roster? Who might they have drafted instead? Collins could be playing still today. He just turned 34.

Whether due to injuries or something else, Matthews career as a dominant player lasted just 4, maybe 6 years. Players of the type he was his first 4 years typically dominate for 8-10 years or so and are better than average for a while after that. They often have very long careers, especially when they have the rare combination of size, speed and strength that Matthews has. Only in his 9th year now, it has been a long time since he has worried OCs around the league.

Collins was the best player on defense when he was lost. Matthews was for a short time, then faded away very young. Shields was or could have been the best on defense, then he, too was lost. As a result there has been no one to build around. No one to rely on year after year. The defense has never established a foundation. Their best players never last for an expected career length. That is why the defense is constantly changing. It has had to.

[beveaux1]

It's not just Shields.

Losing a guy like Collins so early in his career, when he was Pro-Bowl caliber and still ascending, hurt the defense for not only the years he would have played, but also for the missed opportunities with players at other positions as they tried to find his replacement. Would they have still drafted HHCD with Collins and Burnett on their roster? Who might they have drafted instead? Collins could be playing still today. He just turned 34.

Whether due to injuries or something else, Matthews career as a dominant player lasted just 4, maybe 6 years. Players of the type he was his first 4 years typically dominate for 8-10 years or so and are better than average for a while after that. They often have very long careers, especially when they have the rare combination of size, speed and strength that Matthews has. Only in his 9th year now, it has been a long time since he has worried OCs around the league.

Collins was the best player on defense when he was lost. Matthews was for a short time, then faded away very young. Shields was or could have been the best on defense, then he, too was lost. As a result there has been no one to build around. No one to rely on year after year. The defense has never established a foundation. Their best players never last for an expected career length. That is why the defense is constantly changing. It has had to.

This is really an excellent post.

[mraynrand]

It's not just Shields.

Losing a guy like Collins so early in his career, when he was Pro-Bowl caliber and still ascending, hurt the defense for not only the years he would have played, but also for the missed opportunities with players at other positions as they tried to find his replacement. Would they have still drafted HHCD with Collins and Burnett on their roster? Who might they have drafted instead? Collins could be playing still today. He just turned 34.

Whether due to injuries or something else, Matthews career as a dominant player lasted just 4, maybe 6 years. Players of the type he was his first 4 years typically dominate for 8-10 years or so and are better than average for a while after that. They often have very long careers, especially when they have the rare combination of size, speed and strength that Matthews has. Only in his 9th year now, it has been a long time since he has worried OCs around the league.

Collins was the best player on defense when he was lost. Matthews was for a short time, then faded away very young. Shields was or could have been the best on defense, then he, too was lost. As a result there has been no one to build around. No one to rely on year after year. The defense has never established a foundation. Their best players never last for an expected career length. That is why the defense is constantly changing. It has had to.

Right. But Having to replace Shields cost them the ability to perhaps replace Matthews. People are holding out hope for Biegel, but really, it's hard to hit on a pass rushing specialist so late in the draft. TT has had to take chances on young and/or inexperienced guys to hopefully step up. Clark - probably yes. Randall, Rollins, Lowry, Fackrell - probably no. Where does that leave them. They have marginal defensive backs and are hoping for King to progress and House to play like his best at Jacksonville. That's just wishful thinking. And the D-line is a total mess. Counting on Dial and Lowry for pass rushing ability - that's just dreck. Just look at Carolina in comparison - those guys generate pressure on every play. Perry is a decent OLB, who really is a run-stopping DE - so he can manage some push, but he's no PR specialist. Matthews is finished, unless they can turn him into an effective "W" player, but lately you see him just absolutely gassed for no real reason. And to boot, he's protecting himself from getting hurt - you can see plays where he pulls up all the time now.

So, maybe Capers is at fault, but the personnel isn't helping. And it seems overpriced.

[Patler]

Right. But Having to replace Shields cost them the ability to perhaps replace Matthews. People are holding out hope for Biegel, but really, it's hard to hit on a pass rushing specialist so late in the draft. TT has had to take chances on young and/or inexperienced guys to hopefully step up. Clark - probably yes. Randall, Rollins, Lowry, Fackrell - probably no. Where does that leave them. They have marginal defensive backs and are hoping for King to progress and House to play like his best at Jacksonville. That's just wishful thinking. And the D-line is a total mess. Counting on Dial and Lowry for pass rushing ability - that's just dreck. Just look at Carolina in comparison - those guys generate pressure on every play. Perry is a decent OLB, who really is a run-stopping DE - so he can manage some push, but he's no PR specialist. Matthews is finished, unless they can turn him into an effective "W" player, but lately you see him just absolutely gassed for no real reason. And to boot, he's protecting himself from getting hurt - you can see plays where he pulls up all the time now.

So, maybe Capers is at fault, but the personnel isn't helping. And it seems overpriced.

You have said the same thing I did, but focused only on the effect of the loss of Shields. The same thing happened with Collins and the decline of Matthews. Whenever a team loses a valuable starter earlier than planned, there develops an additional unplanned need. If Matthews had maintained his level of play the longshots at Fakrell, Biegel, etc. may not have been needed. One or the other might have been the next Daniels, Sitton, Lang, Bakhtiari, Trotter or Linsley, instead. For the Packer D, the same story has repeated itself every couple years.

For improved qb pressure, I think the guys to watch the rest of 2017 are Montravious Adams and Josh Jones.