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Thread: Defense Spending

  1. #1

    Defense Spending

    You know how people say, well, we can't devote resources to the defense, because we're allocating our money to Rodgers' contract and weapons for him?

    Well I checked whether that's actually true, and it isn't. The Packers actually spend around the top 5 for defense.

    So the next question is whether they're getting value (i.e. a good defense). You would think that spending around the top 5, we'd be getting a top 5 defense in return, right? Well we know that's not true.

    Below is a list of the Packers' weighted defensive DVOA rankings, along with defensive spending rankings (active roster cap) by year:

    2016: 23; 6
    2015: 14; 5
    2014: 18; 4
    2013: 29; 6

    So for example, for 2016, the Packers spent the 6th most in the NFL on defense, and only achieved a 23 ranking defensively. Every year, we've gotten terrible, terrible value.

    How have other teams done?

    Here's a list of the top defensive spending teams (in rank order; active roster cap) by year, and their DVOA ranking:

    2016:

    Bengals; 16
    Bucs; 4
    Giants; 2
    Broncos; 1
    Seahawks; 9

    Packers; 23
    Jaguars; 13
    Jets; 19
    Titans; 27


    2015:

    Jets; 6
    Colts; 10
    Seahawks; 3
    Texans; 4

    Packers; 14
    Bengals; 9
    Browns; 23
    Chiefs; 2
    Cardinals; 7
    Broncos; 1


    2014:

    Bengals; 17
    Bucs; 15

    Bills; 2
    Packers; 18
    Browns; 8
    Lions; 7

    Steelers; 27
    Ravens; 12

    Seahawks; 1
    Dolphins; 25

    2013:

    Bengals; 6
    Chiefs; 14
    Vikings; 26

    Ravens; 8
    Bucs; 12
    Packers; 29
    Colts; 19
    Browns; 27

    Bills; 5
    49ers; 11

    My takeaways:

    - The Packers have gotten poor value every year; this is true of no other team.
    - The majority of teams getting poor value replaced their coach soon after (2013 Browns, 2013 Bucs, 2013 Vikings, 2014 Dolphins, 2014 Steelers; 2014 Bucs; 2015 Browns; none in 2016).
    - The Packers are a complete outlier in this analysis, having gotten poor value every year and retaining their coaches despite this.
    - Someone is asleep at the wheel - either TT is handing out bad contracts, and/or Capers is not getting expected value out of his players/defense.

  2. #2
    Red Devil Rat HOFer gbgary's Avatar
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    i was looking at salary cap numbers and as they stand today for all 32 teams. nearly all the good teams are in the bottom half with the fewest cap dollars remaining and nearly all the poor teams are in the top half with the most cap dollars. a Rodgersless Packers team has proven itself to be a poor team and yes...they're in the top half.

  3. #3
    Moose Rat HOFer woodbuck27's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by th87 View Post
    You know how people say, well, we can't devote resources to the defense, because we're allocating our money to Rodgers' contract and weapons for him?

    Well I checked whether that's actually true, and it isn't. The Packers actually spend around the top 5 for defense.

    So the next question is whether they're getting value (i.e. a good defense). You would think that spending around the top 5, we'd be getting a top 5 defense in return, right? Well we know that's not true.

    Below is a list of the Packers' weighted defensive DVOA rankings, along with defensive spending rankings (active roster cap) by year:

    2016: 23; 6
    2015: 14; 5
    2014: 18; 4
    2013: 29; 6

    So for example, for 2016, the Packers spent the 6th most in the NFL on defense, and only achieved a 23 ranking defensively. Every year, we've gotten terrible, terrible value.

    How have other teams done?

    Here's a list of the top defensive spending teams (in rank order; active roster cap) by year, and their DVOA ranking:

    2016:

    Bengals; 16
    Bucs; 4
    Giants; 2
    Broncos; 1
    Seahawks; 9

    Packers; 23
    Jaguars; 13
    Jets; 19
    Titans; 27


    2015:

    Jets; 6
    Colts; 10
    Seahawks; 3
    Texans; 4

    Packers; 14
    Bengals; 9
    Browns; 23
    Chiefs; 2
    Cardinals; 7
    Broncos; 1


    2014:

    Bengals; 17
    Bucs; 15

    Bills; 2
    Packers; 18
    Browns; 8
    Lions; 7

    Steelers; 27
    Ravens; 12

    Seahawks; 1
    Dolphins; 25

    2013:

    Bengals; 6
    Chiefs; 14
    Vikings; 26

    Ravens; 8
    Bucs; 12
    Packers; 29
    Colts; 19
    Browns; 27

    Bills; 5
    49ers; 11

    My takeaways:

    - The Packers have gotten poor value every year; this is true of no other team.
    - The majority of teams getting poor value replaced their coach soon after (2013 Browns, 2013 Bucs, 2013 Vikings, 2014 Dolphins, 2014 Steelers; 2014 Bucs; 2015 Browns; none in 2016).
    - The Packers are a complete outlier in this analysis, having gotten poor value every year and retaining their coaches despite this.
    - Someone is asleep at the wheel - either TT is handing out bad contracts, and/or Capers is not getting expected value out of his players/defense.
    So....something has to give and I hope that happens after this what certainly appears as 'a lost Season'.

    Isn't it too obvious what needs to be done !?

    Do we always place blame on lousy or unfortunate adversity and too many injuries?

    Do we look at what supplies the talent available on the Packer Roster?

    I say look at both and do everything possible to correct both.
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  4. #4
    Indenial Rat HOFer bobblehead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by th87 View Post
    You know how people say, well, we can't devote resources to the defense, because we're allocating our money to Rodgers' contract and weapons for him?
    .
    I don't ever recall anyone saying that...ever...at all.
    I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.

  5. #5
    Roadkill Rat HOFer mraynrand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by th87 View Post
    Below is a list of the Packers' weighted defensive DVOA rankings, along with defensive spending rankings (active roster cap) by year:

    2016: 23; 6
    2015: 14; 5
    2014: 18; 4
    2013: 29; 6
    Here's ranking by points allowed (since Capers is noted for preventing 'big plays' which translates into more points)

    2016: 21
    2015: 12
    2014: 13
    2013: 24
    "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by mraynrand View Post
    Here's ranking by points allowed (since Capers is noted for preventing 'big plays' which translates into more points)

    2016: 21
    2015: 12
    2014: 13
    2013: 24
    Point totals are better than yardage, but still dependent on the offense and ST to some degree.

    DVOA is the better overall measure though its far from perfect. There was nothing wrong with two of those defenses in the playoffs.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  7. #7
    i've been saying this and point to those same numbers for years

    no one cares

    and we have to spend the money somewhere, the offense without a-rod is proving that the money shouldn't go to them

  8. #8
    Oracle Rat HOFer Cheesehead Craig's Avatar
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    I'm still going to beat that drum of getting rid of Capers. Keep the damn 3-4 if you want, but it's time for something better at the defensive leadership helm.
    All hail the Ruler of the Meadow!

  9. #9
    Roadkill Rat HOFer mraynrand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cheesehead Craig View Post
    I'm still going to beat that drum of getting rid of Capers. Keep the damn 3-4 if you want, but it's time for something better at the defensive leadership helm.
    have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.
    "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

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    CutlerquitRat HOFer
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    Quote Originally Posted by mraynrand View Post
    have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.
    Give hom a street name and a brinks truck if he can replicate the Jags D here
    Swede: My expertise in this area is extensive. The essential difference between a "battleship" and an "aircraft carrier" is that an aircraft carrier requires five direct hits to sink, but it takes only four direct hits to sink a battleship.

  11. #11
    Jumbo Rat HOFer
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    The problem with that is I am guessing Perry Fewell is looking for a HC spot not a lateral movement to GB.
    But Rodgers leads the league in frumpy expressions and negative body language on the sideline, which makes him, like Josh Allen, a unique double threat.

    -Tim Harmston

  12. #12
    CutlerquitRat HOFer
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThunderDan View Post
    The problem with that is I am guessing Perry Fewell is looking for a HC spot not a lateral movement to GB.
    Give him Stubby's job. He has proven he is only here because he had AR.
    Swede: My expertise in this area is extensive. The essential difference between a "battleship" and an "aircraft carrier" is that an aircraft carrier requires five direct hits to sink, but it takes only four direct hits to sink a battleship.

  13. #13
    Roadkill Rat HOFer mraynrand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThunderDan View Post
    The problem with that is I am guessing Perry Fewell is looking for a HC spot not a lateral movement to GB.
    It's not lateral. He's their defensive backs coach. He took a tumble after the Giants defense tanked a bit and with the coaching change. Some may see him as damaged goods.
    "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

  14. #14
    Jumbo Rat HOFer
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    Quote Originally Posted by mraynrand View Post
    It's not lateral. He's their defensive backs coach. He took a tumble after the Giants defense tanked a bit and with the coaching change. Some may see him as damaged goods.
    I thought he was their DC. Thanks for the correction and Get'er Done!
    But Rodgers leads the league in frumpy expressions and negative body language on the sideline, which makes him, like Josh Allen, a unique double threat.

    -Tim Harmston

  15. #15
    Oracle Rat HOFer Cheesehead Craig's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mraynrand View Post
    have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.
    I think Mike Nolan would be a good hire, however, if successful, he's likely gone to a HC gig within 4 years.

    Dennis Thurman is a fantastic DB coach and that is something this Packer team is needing help with. He's been a successful DC under Ryan in several locations. Granted, Ryan likely controlled things, but I think the guy could flourish.
    All hail the Ruler of the Meadow!

  16. #16
    Fact Rat HOFer Patler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobblehead View Post
    I don't ever recall anyone saying that...ever...at all.
    Ya, especially when you look at the lists of the highest paid players the last few years and it has been fairly evenly divided between offense and defense. Matthews has been #2 since his last contract, and for several years the next highest paid were Peppers and Shields Three of the top four were on D. Beyond that, in various orders the top 10 have included Lang, Sitton, Nelson and Cobb from the O and Daniels and Burnett from the D. This year you have Nelson, Cobb, Daniels and Burnett along with Bulaga, Bakhtiari, Perry and Taylor at the top of the list.

    Rodgers and Matthews have been the two outliers, with others on O&D relatively significantly below them. If anything, the problem has been that Matthews hasn't done for the D what Rodgers does for the O, and Shields wasn't on the field enough to justify his portion of the salary cap the last few years. For the most part, the highest paid on offense have played and earned their money. For various reasons, the D have not even though they have gotten their share of the pot.

  17. #17
    Roadkill Rat HOFer mraynrand's Avatar
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    I think people generally underestimate the effect of the loss of Shields.
    "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by mraynrand View Post
    I think people generally underestimate the effect of the loss of Shields.
    Probably, but many of the traits of failure pre and post date Sam's injury.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  19. #19
    Neo Rat HOFer Fritz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mraynrand View Post
    have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.

    So first there's talk of canning Capers, and now you're adding Fewell to the fire.
    "The Devine era is actually worse than you remember if you go back and look at it."

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  20. #20
    Roadkill Rat HOFer mraynrand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fritz View Post
    So first there's talk of canning Capers, and now you're adding Fewell to the fire.
    You must be a Capers crusader.
    "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

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