More Banjo: Coronavirus And Sports

[pbmax]

China has succeeded (if we choose to believe their reported numbers) through serious suppression of personal interaction and travel. Road blocks, quarantines in house, etc.

South Korea has succeeded with mitigation because it has tested a significant portion of its population quickly. 270,000 tests of 50 million people. It has not closed down cities to do so.

The US has tested (according to the COVID-19 Tracking Project) 104,000 people in a population of 327 million. And so much of that testing is being done in large cities (or those with large research hospitals and lab capacity) that there is a lot of the country we don't know about yet.

I hope we are on the backend of the wave. But I have not seen much to indicate it. Last nights data upload to Johns Hopkins site pushed the mortality rate up again. But its collecting data from multiple public records, so the time frames on reporting might not align with each other. 205 death according to them as of this AM.

[call_me_ishmael]

https://twitter.com/rauchg/status/1239416843657306112

Update from
@zeithq
's engineer
@shuding_
who is in Wuhan:
◆ �� He's been quarantined for 56 days
◆ �� Only 4 new cases in all of Wuhan yesterday
◆ �� 0 new cases in his district in a row for the last 7d
◆ �� Govt might let people out incrementally upon 14d of no new cases

Really important to note that China locked it the fuck down. Martial law, the whole 9. This dude has been locked in his apartment for 60 days now. He won't get out for at least 14 days at a bare minimum. 74 days locked up at a minimum!!! That's _alot_ to say the least. I am not sure the USA is prepared to take such measures but I think that is what it's going to take to crack this nut.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Self-edited.

Will debunk Prof Rand in FYI.

[MadtownPacker]

I feel for the elders who this is most dangerous to.

Putting me out of my misery would be a kindness at this point.

[mraynrand]

Putting me out of my misery would be a kindness at this point.

Sorry dude. I have days like that too. Hope the majority of your days are good.

[MadtownPacker]

I know we have had our battles but your words are appreciated.

[call_me_ishmael]

Anybody think the oddly good numbers out of Japan are directly correlated and untrustworthy due to the olympics? I just can’t see it happening. Hope I’m wrong. They did say Fuck Zika.

[bobblehead]

https://twitter.com/rauchg/status/1239416843657306112



Really important to note that China locked it the fuck down. Martial law, the whole 9. This dude has been locked in his apartment for 60 days now. He won't get out for at least 14 days at a bare minimum. 74 days locked up at a minimum!!! That's _alot_ to say the least. I am not sure the USA is prepared to take such measures but I think that is what it's going to take to crack this nut.

They also shot and burned about 20,000 people with the virus so the official death number wasn't included....death by bullet is a different category. Business people I know claim that their were over 6000 bodies burned in wuhan in a 3 week period in December. Satellite images and air samples of sulfur dioxide back that claim up. One "whistleblower" claimed it was much more than 6k. Something like 1200 a day for god only knows how long. Believe nothing coming out of china.

[bobblehead]

Can you not honestly work out why the annual flu is different from a "novel virus"? I mean there are 4 BIG things that the words "annual flu" and "novel virus" tell you without having to do any research. Just use your noodle.

Community spread has already begun. China got word out late. Sheltered elderly are already being infected at their places of care. Tex, you are about 6 weeks behind. According to Johns Hopkins database, mortality rate now, without widespread testing, is 1.3%. That number will likely come down, but its going to get worse before it gets better.

The most accurate statistical breakdown I have seen said that without drastic measures the death totals would have been 200k to 400k. Compare that to the annual flu which is 15k to 30k and you see the difference. Part of that is its more deadly and part of that is that its more easily transmissible. The entirely most conservative estimate with standard warnings and high alert measures only came it at about 90k.

[bobblehead]

Also sort of incredible how the NBA led, and was frankly more prepared, then the federal government here. Crazy.

They had a player get infected. They were not prepared at all. They had zero choice but to shut it down. Rudy played against 5 teams in the interim. The only other choice was to quarantine 6 total teams and somehow play on. This is a ridiculous take.

[call_me_ishmael]

They also shot and burned about 20,000 people with the virus so the official death number wasn't included....death by bullet is a different category. Business people I know claim that their were over 6000 bodies burned in wuhan in a 3 week period in December. Satellite images and air samples of sulfur dioxide back that claim up. One "whistleblower" claimed it was much more than 6k. Something like 1200 a day for god only knows how long. Believe nothing coming out of china.

Source? I don't doubt since China's fucking crazy, but never the less, source?

I 100% doubt the numbers coming out of China and Japan. Not a doubt in my mind they're wrong.

[texaspackerbacker]

So you believe like it's gospel if it's bad news, but something positive comes out, and you think it must be a lie ...... sounds about right for you.

[call_me_ishmael]

So you believe like it's gospel if it's bad news, but something positive comes out, and you think it must be a lie ...... sounds about right for you.

Not at all. Who doesn't want good news? Unfortunately Tex, there isn't a lot of good news here to share. Despite your optimism and your refusal to acknowledge this is a serious situation, that doesn't align with reality.

[texaspackerbacker]

The post I was responding to had no figures in it.

I was responding to the idea that slowing the spread in the general population did not help those at risk. Its not just retirement communities and nursing homes that have to be closed off. People come into contact with the compromised and elderly everywhere. Say, in your own home. You can't close a limited number of those institutions and slow the spread. You have to act widely to have an impact.

So that means the largest gatherings are the first places to stop.

You could if you only targeted the group most likely to die or have permanent lung damage - quarantine them instead of making the whole population suffer unnecessarily.

[texaspackerbacker]

Not at all. Who doesn't want good news? Unfortunately Tex, there isn't a lot of good news here to share. Despite your optimism and your refusal to acknowledge this is a serious situation, that doesn't align with reality.

Are you kidding? Just 200 something deaths compared to 4-5,000 in Italy or 12-13,000 in one year in this country from H1N1, as well as a huge recovery rate from the corona thing - obvious with the very mild symptoms of it, but still good news to everybody except the Trump haters.

[call_me_ishmael]

Are you kidding? Just 200 something deaths compared to 4-5,000 in Italy or 12-13,000 in one year in this country from H1N1, as well as a huge recovery rate from the corona thing - obvious with the very mild symptoms of it, but still good news to everybody except the Trump haters.

250 today, 500 Sunday, 1000 Tuesday, 2000 Thursday, 4000 Saturday, 8000 Monday, 16000 Wednesday, 32000 Friday, 64K Sunday, and so forth.

People *actually* quarantined here and took it seriously - thankfully - so we'll see if those numbers come to fruition. That's your curve, though.

[pbmax]

The most accurate statistical breakdown I have seen said that without drastic measures the death totals would have been 200k to 400k. Compare that to the annual flu which is 15k to 30k and you see the difference. Part of that is its more deadly and part of that is that its more easily transmissible. The entirely most conservative estimate with standard warnings and high alert measures only came it at about 90k.

Where did you get the numbers Bobble? Would like to read them.

[pbmax]

260 dead as of this morning.

[mraynrand]

250 today, 500 Sunday, 1000 Tuesday, 2000 Thursday, 4000 Saturday, 8000 Monday, 16000 Wednesday, 32000 Friday, 64K Sunday, and so forth.

People *actually* quarantined here and took it seriously - thankfully - so we'll see if those numbers come to fruition. That's your curve, though.

You’re predicting 64,000 dead in two weeks

[mraynrand]

If you want a rational look at this, read this:

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894