really sorry to hear you had a shit day MadOriginally Posted by MadtownPacker
really sorry to hear you had a shit day Mad
LIFE IS ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIPS; I JUST REALIZED THIS. The MILWAUKEE BUCKS have won the same number of championships over the past 50 years as the Green Bay Packers. Ten years from now, who will have more championships, and who will be the fart in the wind ?
Nice report, but in my mind, it fails to address two things;
1) What politician, or any person, wants to make a decision that ultimately could cause additional deaths? That is why most countries are following the same pattern, i.e. what seems to be working in other countries is a good plan for us, at least until something else works better.
2) The reports of people getting reinfected may mean it is mutating, so suppressing the infection rate as quickly as possible reduces the time for mutations.
Finally, we are starting to see more and more studies on coronavirus, sometimes conflicting studies. The more we study this, the better (hopefully) we will understand how to proceed. In the meantime, isn't it better to be safe than sorry?
Yeah. Maybe. It seems like it takes awhile to kick the bucket with this. Maybe three. Really depends how many people stayed home and continue to social distance. It’s hard to project because states and cities took the appropriate measures that the fed is too pussy to do.
There will be two million cases in two weeks unless A) we don’t have enough tests to verify or B) people continue to socially distance themselves bigly.
https://t.co/eUvCmFM0lU?amp=1The human and economic costs of delaying this lockdown will be staggering. The COVID-19 outbreak has many more cases now than are visible (tip of the iceberg) and they are growing rapidly. Absent sufficiently effective intervention, new cases will increase 1.3 to 1.5 times each day. We had almost 20,000 cases in the United States on Friday, over 5,800 more cases than the previous day. Without a lockdown, in one week there will be about 200,000. In two weeks: 2,000,000. One in seven cases require hospitalization and 5% require ICU care with ventilators to survive. There aren’t nearly enough ventilators available.
Last edited by call_me_ishmael; 03-21-2020 at 11:32 AM.
https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/st...071645699?s=21
More and more this looks like evidence of an uncoordinated response.
And Aaron Ginn seems very sanguine about hospitals being overrun from the initial rush. UW put out a request for people to sew them masks yesterday. The Governor said that the Federal Emergency supplies contain more equipment and supplies, but it hasn’t arrived yet.
Last edited by pbmax; 03-21-2020 at 12:59 PM.
What the fuck? You want us to trust an article on a wiki-ish site (anyone can publish on our site!), written by a Mongoloid-looking nerd asserting that the COVID-19 is a fucking computer virus?
This I agree with "not believing any of China's numbers" The rest I have no idea about, lol. China's numbers just don't jive with the rest of the world!
Froedert is asking for masks as well. Hell they will even take used safety goggles. What the actual fuck!!!
I have already told you that there is no point in sourcing anything for you. Even after I refute you with sources and documentation you are back to your same schtick a week later. And 20k shot was half joke, but I also believe the measures they took.... I wouldn't want to live in such a country.
As for the numbers burned that is all over the place. No one can source it with absolute certainty, but as I said, air samples and satellite images source out that they are lying through their teeth.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
Is there a metric (chart) showing relative levels of output year over year from China. Did someone do a comparison to previous years and also previous Body burning increases in China, like when they’ve pulverized bodies in the past?
I think China has about 7 million death/year. That’s around 20,000/day. Depending on the percent bodies normally incinerated, the increase due to a few thousand corona deaths might not even appear as a blip. However, it’s possible most of their dead are processed into Soylent Green to feed the Uyghurs so maybe you could see the increase after all....
Wish I could, but honestly I read so many reports, articles and statistical models that I can't even find most of them again. I have read a mountain of statistical models since Mid January (I became very interested when we shut down travel from china). Many are/were flawed. Some were silly. The assumptions were that we suddenly all start hugging and kissing like Italy and had a similar death rate as they were "guessing" china really had. Some were probably written by Tex assuming no one under 60 would die. The ones I tend to believe were assuming that without the drastic measures, most people would realize this one is bad and take extra measures themselves to avoid it. They assumed a 2% death rate (our medical is top notch, but would be over run). That is about 20x more deadly than the flu (people don't really try to avoid the flu). I believe china reported a 2.7% death rate. Its also considered slightly more contagious than the flu. So we lost 22k to the flu this year. Now multiply that by the range of 1% to 3% mortality rate and you get 220k to 660k. China locked it down, but didn't treat as aggressively as we would. They also smoke at a much higher rate and have worse air quality. Puts the U.S. much closer to 200k to 400k range. That is the gist of what I have read from many sources.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
I should have been clearer. We are just talking about Wuhan. Their population is 20 million I believe.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
Just read that latest death rate in U.S. is standing at 1.25%. My guess is thats why we want to test everyone and their brother. The more confirmed cases, the lower the death rate.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
Good point. shutting down schools really cuts down on traffic accidents.
You want to test so you can identify the carriers and slow the spread so hospitals have a chance at treating everyone. Otherwise, the death rate will be pretty high.
Assuming the Imperial College models are correct
That’s still 50-100/day and they get seasonal flu too., which kills a lot more than corona, and would be spiking about the same time. So unless they’re burning the bodies in one big outdoor pile like Jawas, I’m skeptical.
Partially. Italy is providing a pretty good test case. Also, even if the models are pretty far off, we'd still run out of ICU space.
I am not sure about calling corona less deadly than flu. What I have read about its virology is that its one of three of the worst viral pathogens* to outbreak this century behind only the Spanish Flu in 1918. And I am not sure deadly its the most important metric now given that hospitals are getting overrun and in some countries there have been death preventable by basic medical interventions. We'll know much more after the fact. But even with top line numbers, we aren't done yet. I read yesterday that the total dead is still doubling every 3 days, same as in the UK. And that Just Wolfers tweet I linked to yesterday indicated that cases are increasing faster and later in the timeline than other countries.
Given the more widespread testing is still being prioritized to the symptomatic, that doesn't seem to be good news. Also,
1. There is no history of immunity (there might be immunity out there but limited testing so far probably hasn't teased that out)
2. There is no vaccine.
3. There was precious little preparation (health system)
4. There was no anticipation among vulnerable
But most importantly
5. States are taking extreme precautions to lower infection rates.
And a question
6. Without widespread testing, are people dying who are not known to have had corona? Seems practical that testing would also be prioritized for the living.
* I will go look for the link, but the two others were not recent.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
Italy is a terrible test case. They had a huge Chinese population working there. They are extremely old with median age of death over 80. Of the people dying about 50% had 3 or more other illnesses, 25% had 2 and only a low percent had none. They smoke like hell over there too, and air pollution is bad. All these thing exacerbate a respiratory virus.
Corona viruses are cold viruses that attack cells in the airways. Probably a number of compromised people have increased levels of ACE2 which is associated with hypertension etc. (I confess I’ve forgotten how that works).
Anyway, it a mutated cold virus that’s more severe than the common cold but is causing specific flu symptoms and is going after the weakest in society. Unlike Other flu viruses however, it’s much much less virulent towards the very young, which was a problem With SARS, which infected 60 million and killed 12,000 - 17,000 in the US.
It will be hard to tease this out, especially since the flu incidence this year is relatively low. We’ve only had 22,000 flu deaths this year (2,000 in the past three weeks). Highly unlikely that these are due to corona because corona presents differently because it’s respiratory with dry cough. We are at tail end of flu season. So all this social distancing may reduce common flu and colds. I don’t think that’s worth an economic depression, but silver linings, silver linings.
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