In my opinion, the best chance at getting another star and ten year run is to suck for a year and win like two games the year AR. That is the recipe to continue being a contender IMO eg Andy Luck. Otherwise you could be suck in the worst place - pretty good enough to be somewhat competitive but not good enough to ever do anything meaningful.
Maybe so, but that is unacceptable to me. How many of ya'all would be happy with the team bottoming out in order to draft Burrow or Lawrence - whoever is that type guy coming out in whatever number of years?
As I have said, the best scenario other than riding Rodgers 'til his arm and legs fall off would be to pull off a trade - Love plus a draft pick to get somebody like Stafford for a few years and then get very lucky with a QB draft pick (or maybe go the Favre route and give a first rounder for a promising young QB who isn't quite as unknown as a draft pick).
I just hope this is all theoretical, and at some point, Gutekunst comes to his senses and reups Rodgers for a long term extension.
What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?
If they don’t LOVE, Love they sure could re-up Rodgers.
In Murphy’s recent take 5 (where he takes 5 questions from fans), Murphy talked about teams not winning Super Bowls with the highest paid quarterbacks. It’s usually underpaid QBs who win. They might be looking at this as the last dance and then trying to win one with an underpaid Love.
The Packers should have the choice whether they want to move on or stay with what they’ve got. I don’t see why they would be stuck in one direction or the other right now.
I hope Love is looking like a star and they move on just because I want 15 more years. But I’m not sure that’s the situation so I’m more than open to Rodgers playing till 43 years old in Green Bay.
Formerly known as JustinHarrell.
That's a narrative that isn't founded on reality, though. Unless of course you're assuming that Tom Brady is underpaid or whatever or on a rookie contract. He's unusual in that his wife is a billionaire.
Brady beat Mahomes - Both paid a premium
Mahomes beat Jimmy G - Mahomes paid immediately after, Jimmy G was highly paid
Brady beat Goff - Goff Paid immediately after
Eagles Guy beats Brady - Yes, this one counts I guess but Eagles Guy never did anything after
Brady beat Matt Ryan - both highly paid
Manning beat Newton - Both highly paid
Brady beat Wilson - Wilson paid immediately after
Wilson beat Manning - Yes, this one qualifies for sure
Joe Flacco beat Colin Kapernick - Flacco got paid immediately after it, Kapernick never did anything after
Eli beat Brady - Both highly paid
Rodgers beat Roethlisberger - Both highly paid
Brees beat Manning - Both highly paid
Roethlisberger beat Warner - Both highly paid
Manning beat Brady - Both highly paid
Manning beat Grossman - Grossman qualifies although he never did anything after
In general, the data clearly does not support that this happens often. This is Murphy setting a narrative. "Own the future". But wait, couldn't they just own the present by paying their star? Whole thing is dumb.
It takes two to tango on re-upping Rodgers. At this point, I think it's abundantly clear that Rodgers feels it's too little too late. I can see where a normal person is like "Yeah I would just be happy to have their job and happy with whatever I can get" but that's not how someone thinks in their position. This off-season or maybe even earlier they will either re-up Rodgers with something that locks him up for at least 4 years and w/ the plan to trade Love either this season or next or they will trade Rodgers.
Including Brady on this list is slanting things unrealistically. The level of play from your defense you get with Brady is not realistic for any QB in NFL history. His entire career is an outlier, honestly. Take in to account that Brady's contract starting last season was 2/$50... that's actually under market value, also. And most teams are not able to build an incredible roster and just import a high quality QB like the Bucs did. That is not typical of the NFL at large or how the Packers operate, specifically.Originally Posted by call_me_ishmael
If the Packers want to commit to Rodgers and Adams, the two of them can decide to take a home team discount to stay long-ish term, and there will be no fans that gripe about it, outside of outright Jordan Love fans. If he leaves and we only get four years of reasonably decent backup QB play and a 3rd round comp, then I don't think we can really bitch about it because (1) it means that Rodgers is still playing at a high level, and (2) it means we got a crack at a third straight HOF player at the cost of a 1st minus a 3rd round pick, which is great value.
It's not slanting anything - it's providing the actual real world data without any bias at all. It also takes into account the opposition, too. The reality is not very many rookie contract QBs make it, and if they do they get paid basically immediately after so the window is very short.
CMI, nothing Rodgers has said lately is remotely like this - "It takes two to tango on re-upping Rodgers. At this point, I think it's abundantly clear that Rodgers feels it's too little too late." Other than the off-season farce generated by media pukes, to which Rodgers probably sarcastically replied something about wanting to be traded, all he has said is he wants to finish his career in Green Bay.
A "home town discount" for Rodgers and Adams? Before all of Gutekunst and Murphy's dumbassery, that might have happened. Now, even if he doesn't need the money, it's quite possible he wants to get more money just to stick it to the leaders who maybe he perceives as fucking him over. Adams also was not sounding like he was in the mood to settle for a discount. That probably is all irrelevant, though, because the cap situation is greatly overblown as a problem. It's gonna go through the roof next season.
Brady's super model wife is a billionaire? I'd buy multi-millionaire, but not billions. Rodgers' wife is a movie star, which probably isn't that far off from a super model. Brady doesn't get max pay, but he is up there pretty close. After all, he's the second GOAT.
I didn't actually hear Murphy say that gem about highly paid QBs, but would anybody like to consider that maybe he was being sarcastic? The alternative is that he really is that STUPID.
What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?
If Gute believes having a second rate QB is the key to success, he needs to have a sit down with SF and the Ram's brass. Why they lost. Also they had years of high picks to build those rosters.
The real reason it's hard to stack success is that continually winning gets you low draft picks. Only BB figured out how to overcome that. Gute/Murf is not BB.
Rodgers has not been given a deal. The clowns don't want him. It seems the new strategy is to get a top ten pick for four years and build an all star front seven like TB & SF. Brilliant.
[QUOTE=texaspackerbacker;1096698]CMI, nothing Rodgers has said lately is remotely like this - "It takes two to tango on re-upping Rodgers. At this point, I think it's abundantly clear that Rodgers feels it's too little too late." Other than the off-season farce generated by media pukes, to which Rodgers probably sarcastically replied something about wanting to be traded, all he has said is he wants to finish his career in Green Bay.[quote]
Maybe, but he did reject a contract "extension" aka more money with no more guaranteed years. He was clearly pretty PO'd in that press conference.
Looks like most of the data on Gisele is more in the ~700M range than 1B+, but yeah, she is far wealthier than Rodgers B-lister wife. Most estimates from searching put her at around 12M, so ~1.75% of Gisele's net worth lol.Brady's super model wife is a billionaire? I'd buy multi-millionaire, but not billions. Rodgers' wife is a movie star, which probably isn't that far off from a super model. Brady doesn't get max pay, but he is up there pretty close. After all, he's the second GOAT.
Can't speak to that. Smuggler above is just mad because the list and data doesn't support the narrative. The stark reality is Jordan Love is a low-level prospect out of HS who struggled against not-very-good competition in college. Maybe he will become a good player - I hope he does - but I would just say the indications point against that at this point.I didn't actually hear Murphy say that gem about highly paid QBs, but would anybody like to consider that maybe he was being sarcastic? The alternative is that he really is that STUPID.
2 things. First, Brady is perennially underpaid, as such he generally has a top 5 defense. Second, just because a QB got immediately paid AFTER he won as underpaid supports the opposite side of the argument you are trying to make.
Edit: To make it more clear. Maholmes immediately paid. Hasn't won since (yea, I know, yet to be seen). Goff paid...Huge mistake and Rams are in cap hell desperate to trade the future to win after that contract. Wilson paid. Defense fell apart. Team hasn't done shit since. Flacco paid...need I say more. Kapernick paid...need I say more. Eli won his first Owl on his rookie deal (6y for 54m) and his second while the impact had not hit the cap yet. He was not highly paid for either win. Brady made $25 million for his win last year...you call that highly paid for todays QB??
Your data is really supporting the other side of the argument. I'm not even sure the cap hit for Rodgers hit until after he won his and then never won another.
Last edited by bobblehead; 09-07-2021 at 10:36 AM.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
What is underpaid? This article makes the argument he sacrificed 60M in contracts over 20 season relative to his peers. Assuming the rookie contract stayed the same, 16 years. 60M over 16 years is 3.75M per year sacrificed - that is hardly enough to sign a single veteran let alone build an elite defense! It's just a well-run organization.
No, the data supports that the people who get to the big game are almost always highly paid players because it takes an elite QB to win in the vast majority of cases. This idea to have a rookie contract QB or journeymen backup and win the whole thing because you can fortify every other position is NOT supported by the data. There are countless examples every single year, and very, very few have done it, so... I guess if I were running an org, I'd take my chances with the star QB since that statistically gives me the best probability of winning.
Ish, look at your numbers again. I consider top 10 in cap to be expensive.
On that only
2020 Brady
2018 Brady
2016 Ryan
2015 manning
2013 manning
2011 both
2010 ben
2009 manning
2008 rothlesberger is 11th highest so borderline
2007 manning
15 years 11 expensive qbs, I think the data is more supportive of the opposite if your point. That includes an 11th highest paid.
Cap numbers from overthecap.com
All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed they must rely exclusively on force.
George Orwell
Contracts are fluid, though. Year 4 of an existing 5/6 year deal is probably not a top 5-10 deal anymore for most players. They are likely to get extended after the year and be back in the top 5-10.
The greater question should be to look at who was on rookie contracts, and I think looking at that list only Goff, Wilson and Grossman were. Wilson and Goff were immediately paid after so they essentially had a one year window on the rookie deal. It's not like they were there for 75-80% of their rookie contracts - rather they had a one year chance to win before making the big QB money.
Edit: It's not why SF lost. Shanahan took the blame for that. And Mahomes had a lot to do with it but he's top 2 QB in the league. San Fran had years of top picks. You don't get those without losing, a lot. Tampa too. That said, MLF's system is more friendly to QBs of non HoF talent. Still GB is not talented enough to win without a premier QB.
Edit for real: Whoops. I thought I edited my post.
Maybe, but the theory is that if they rid themselves of that huge QB contract, they COULD afford the pieces around to be talented enough.
TB won with a Tier 2 QB last season and the Chiefs lost with a Tier 1 QB. But in general I feel their rosters from 1-53 are one tier ahead of GB as of last season. We're very top-heavy.
Two more 15 mil per season contracts help. Could have two really good DL for that price. 2 stud DL alongside Clark would make us a top defense. And then if Love performed at a high level, that’s when it happens.
Formerly known as JustinHarrell.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the...atrick-mahomes
The Ringer - 2019 article
I'm not angry, CMI, I just think you need to go watch a TedEd video about statistical relevance and re-evaluate the data that you set on the table. You're drawing conclusions from a small and drastically non-representative sample that you're looking at in the wrong light to begin with.
This isn’t an exit poll of 2000 people out of 100M voting. This is the actual real world data including both the winners (Brady) AND the losers. Affordable QBs rarely get to the super bowl let alone win it.
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