Official Jordan Love Bandwagon Thread:

[bobblehead]

Ish, look at your numbers again. I consider top 10 in cap to be expensive.
On that only
2020 Brady
2018 Brady
2016 Ryan
2015 manning
2013 manning
2011 both
2010 ben
2009 manning
2008 rothlesberger is 11th highest so borderline
2007 manning
15 years 11 expensive qbs, I think the data is more supportive of the opposite if your point. That includes an 11th highest paid.

Cap numbers from overthecap.com

Brady on year 1 of a 2/50 contract was top 10 in 2020...how is that possible?

[bobblehead]

This isn’t an exit poll of 2000 people out of 100M voting. This is the actual real world data including both the winners (Brady) AND the losers. Affordable QBs rarely get to the super bowl let alone win it.

Ture. Also true. Highly paid QBs rarely get to the Owl let alone win it. So...its really hard to in the Owl.

[Upnorth]

Brady on year 1 of a 2/50 contract was top 10 in 2020...how is that possible?

He was tied for 5th

So approximately 1/3rd of sb representatives and 1/3rd of the winners were top 3rd of qb contracts. To me that indicates qb quality is overrated and team quality is underrated.
Very small sample size but it conforms to my personal belief which is that and count but so does the team. Also important is captain obvious makes an obvious statement to people that read past headlines.

If I was retired i would do this analysis on oline and d line sending as well. Love to see how strong that correlation might be.

[call_me_ishmael]

Ture. Also true. Highly paid QBs rarely get to the Owl let alone win it. So...its really hard to in the Owl.

Very true, but the data supports that if you want to get to it and lose to Brady your best chance is to have a highly paid, top notch QB.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Very true, but the data supports that if you want to get to it and lose to Brady your best chance is to have a highly paid, top notch QB.

Nothing in your stats shows this. You can’t count QBs on cheap contracts that got paid right after they went to a Super Bowl as guys with big contracts. Makes no sense.

[call_me_ishmael]

Nothing in your stats shows this. You can’t count QBs on cheap contracts that got paid right after they went to a Super Bowl as guys with big contracts. Makes no sense.

I didn’t do that. When Russ won the super bowl before getting extended for example that counts as a cheap QB. 90% of super bowl appearances featured a QB not on cheap contracts.

[Upnorth]

I didn’t do that. When Russ won the super bowl before getting extended for example that counts as a cheap QB. 90% of super bowl appearances featured a QB not on cheap contracts.

67% of super bowls had a qb appear on not cheap contracts in the last 15 years. Not 90%.
So a full 33% had 0 expensive representation and 67% were won by a qb that was relatively cheap.

[Sparkey]

Are we just looking at $$$ or as a percentage of the cap ?

Because $$$ and cap hits are rarely the same.

[Upnorth]

Are we just looking at $$$ or as a percentage of the cap ?

Because $$$ and cap hits are rarely the same.

I'm looking at cap hit. $ are not what matters. Cap hit is.

[bobblehead]

I'm looking at cap hit. $ are not what matters. Cap hit is.

Exactly. Which is why even a guy who just signed a 5 year 150 million contract is probably "cheap" in terms of cap hit.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position...more%20rows%20

This is a good example. Look at where Brady lands on this one. 14th in cap hit. Maholmes is 23rd.

[bobblehead]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings...t/quarterback/

This one is sortable by year. Maholmes was 32nd...YEP YOU READ THAT RIGHT. 32nd in cap hit. Brady was in fact 6th, but that was a different situation. He went to a team that was young and loaded from recent losing seasons. Its not like he was in year 3 of a contract and had just lead the team to 4 straight 12 win seasons.

In 2019 Jimmy G was 15th and Maholmes was 32nd also. So the morale of the story is you can't have a monster cap hit and win the Owl. Watch what happens in 2 years when Maholmes becomes the 2nd or 3rd cap hit. They will begin bleeding talent and still win because he is great, but getting over that hump will become increasingly difficult.

[RashanGary]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings...t/quarterback/

This one is sortable by year. Maholmes was 32nd...YEP YOU READ THAT RIGHT. 32nd in cap hit. Brady was in fact 6th, but that was a different situation. He went to a team that was young and loaded from recent losing seasons. Its not like he was in year 3 of a contract and had just lead the team to 4 straight 12 win seasons.

In 2019 Jimmy G was 15th and Maholmes was 32nd also. So the morale of the story is you can't have a monster cap hit and win the Owl. Watch what happens in 2 years when Maholmes becomes the 2nd or 3rd cap hit. They will begin bleeding talent and still win because he is great, but getting over that hump will become increasingly difficult.

This is the observable truth. Once a QB makes it near the top in salary, his team doesn’t win championships. Those top 5 cap hits hurt.

[Upnorth]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings...t/quarterback/

This one is sortable by year. Maholmes was 32nd...YEP YOU READ THAT RIGHT. 32nd in cap hit. Brady was in fact 6th, but that was a different situation. He went to a team that was young and loaded from recent losing seasons. Its not like he was in year 3 of a contract and had just lead the team to 4 straight 12 win seasons.

In 2019 Jimmy G was 15th and Maholmes was 32nd also. So the morale of the story is you can't have a monster cap hit and win the Owl. Watch what happens in 2 years when Maholmes becomes the 2nd or 3rd cap hit. They will begin bleeding talent and still win because he is great, but getting over that hump will become increasingly difficult.

Not 100% accurate. Brady and manning both won while being top 5 cap hits. So it only really stacks the deck against you. The difference between top 5 and lower is one really good player elsewhere

[RashanGary]

Not 100% accurate. Brady and manning both won while being top 5 cap hits. So it only really stacks the deck against you. The difference between top 5 and lower is one really good player elsewhere

A team can have a top 5 QB hit and be in a stage where they have a bunch of rookie deals else where that put you over the top. Or just do a really good job managing the cap in every other way.

Having a top 5 QB contract doesn’t stop you. It makes you have to be better everywhere else. And once in a while a team will overcome it.

There are no hard rules. It just makes it a little more challenging to have a top paid QB on the books. But obviously having a top QB helps too. So it’s just that balance.

[call_me_ishmael]

67% of super bowls had a qb appear on not cheap contracts in the last 15 years. Not 90%.
So a full 33% had 0 expensive representation and 67% were won by a qb that was relatively cheap.

Not sure where you getting those numbers from but I will double check. Sounds unlikely based on common sense.

[call_me_ishmael]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings...t/quarterback/

This one is sortable by year. Maholmes was 32nd...YEP YOU READ THAT RIGHT. 32nd in cap hit. Brady was in fact 6th, but that was a different situation. He went to a team that was young and loaded from recent losing seasons. Its not like he was in year 3 of a contract and had just lead the team to 4 straight 12 win seasons.

In 2019 Jimmy G was 15th and Maholmes was 32nd also. So the morale of the story is you can't have a monster cap hit and win the Owl. Watch what happens in 2 years when Maholmes becomes the 2nd or 3rd cap hit. They will begin bleeding talent and still win because he is great, but getting over that hump will become increasingly difficult.

Obviously. I think we’re all saying the same thing essentially. Jimmy G has a big contract though it just so happened the cap hit was small in that particular year. Will be bigger orhe years, all balances out. They have no chance with Jimmy G and they know it. He is a prime example of the type of B or C player you want to avoid at the QB spot. A or move on.org. Relentlessly cycle through them until you have a star. You aren’t likely statistically to win anything meaningful without one.

[call_me_ishmael]

This is the observable truth. Once a QB makes it near the top in salary, his team doesn’t win championships. Those top 5 cap hits hurt.

This is so stupid. Give me a break. For one Brady totally taints the data in that sense. Maybe look at conference championship appearances. Brady will obviously get his. Unquestionably he had an under the table deal with Pats and has it to this day. Unqurstionably and obviously.

[call_me_ishmael]

Having good players at key positions that have far below market rate contracts tends to give you more resources. Obviously.

[RashanGary]

Having good players at key positions that have far below market rate contracts tends to give you more resources. Obviously.

Yep. It’s a lot of variables that go into a championship. Top QB play is good. Top contracts make the rest harder. There are no black lines in this. It’s grey area. Obviously getting a rookie deal player to develop ahead of schedule is a big advantage. Having a top player as the top cap hit is an advantage with an offsetting disadvantage. Ultimately it’s the whole roster and lots of variables.

[RashanGary]

I think you can win with Eli Manning or Aaron Rodgers or even Joe Flacco depending on the rest of the roster. Usually there are about 12 quarterbacks good enough to win it. It comes down to how the whole roster is constructed and then having one of those top 12 guys at QB