I think the most pressing needs are in order Safety (we need 2) TE (we need 2), DL (we need 2 or 3), Edge, OT, then luxury picks are WR, LB, CB. i would prefer 1 DL and a WR free agent with some experience and the rest in the draft.
My guess is Safety or TE in the 1st, only thing that could change it is an OT or Edge falling into our laps.
Rookie TEs are not impactful. I think signing one of the many good FAs this offseason along with drafting one in round 3 (its a deep TE draft) would be a good combination. In the first round lets go with the one freakish safety or one of the several good front line guys at either edge or DT. The team is lucky that this draft lines up well with team needs. Maybe not as much at safety as there may only be one worthy of a first, but its very deep at TE and DL. WR is first round light, but day 2 strong.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
I want the Packers to draft Northwestern DL Adetomiwa Adebawore just to hear announcers stumble over his name. He's actually quite good but small.
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
Or Pittsburgh RB Israel Abanikanda. Dude wouldn't be a bad Day 3 protege for Aaron Jones.Originally Posted by Joemailman
(I like Tyjae Spears better, but his name is easier to say.)
Last edited by run pMc; 02-22-2023 at 12:07 PM.
He is already working out with pass rush guru Coach Brandon Jordan. Should be ready to go by the start of the season.
The Packers have needs, but they are also in a position to take best player available. I would roll my eyes if they took a running back, but they need help and significant depth it seems at every position. If one of the top 3 offensive tackles drop to the Packers would any of you go ballistic? Even an interior guy. The Packers had a lack of significant talent along their offensive line as the season came to a close. Their right side was bad. Their Linebacker situation is not completely resolved they could definitely get more instinctive and athletic there. Defensive line we all know that Kenny Clark played way to many snaps last year and didn't play consistent enough, the Packers could add a top end guy to the rotation there. Safety is a black hole for the Packers. Don't like what they have there and I haven't liked it for a while. TE and receiver still need young depth, and guys that can compete. Drafting those guys even at the top end of the draft takes time to develop so don't get pissed if they draft a TE and it take 10-12 weeks before they show their abilities. Having to learn both blocking schemes and route schemes isn't exactly the easiest way to spend your time in mini camp.
Packers have needs all over. Best player available.
I would not go ballistic if they picked a top OT, I'd be a little surprised since they have like 11 OL under contract currently. If a good one dropped to them it would make sense though -- they will need clarity at both T spots long term. A blue chip T prospect could make it easier to move on from Bakhtiari without having to move Jenkins, or move on from Njiman without worrying if Tom or Caleb Jones can play there. (Tom probably can.)
FWIW I think they go EDGE or DL in R1. The WR group is meh for top talent, and the TE group is deep. Precedent has shown you can find good TEs throughout the draft, you don't need to pick one early. I'd expect them to load up on big guys early and skill players and special teamers late.
They have a few candidates at safety on the roster, none of them look especially ready to step in immediately. Carpenter, Abernathy, Gaines... they're ST players and I think they need help there.
I don't expect Gute to trade up much if at all, the roster has some holes and the draft is a good, cheap way to fill them.
I like big guys early and skill guys late. It’s a lot harder to find a tackle, DL or edge after round 1 or maybe 2. It’s much easiest to pluck skill guys later.
Formerly known as JustinHarrell.
Needs all over? Or needs pretty much nowhere? We could use a superstar or high quality upgrade just about all over, but need? Not really. We have good enough quality to win a LOT of games and go a long way with pretty much what we have plus Aaron Rodgers returning to normalcy. I would define need as a position where somebody who is drafted basically comes in as the first stringer - his position to lose. Walker was pretty much that last year. Other than probably Kicker, we really don't have that situation at any position this year. Safety would be that if they let Amos go, but I doubt they do.
I'd go with Edge Rusher in the first round unless some obvious BPA falls to us.
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Amos is probably gone, Savage is not the answer. They were trying Rudy Ford and Innis Gaines at safety. Safety would be a need.
They have one TE under contract. Big Dog and Tonyan might not be back, it's debatable if they should be brought back. TE is a need.
Rashan Gary is out until October. GB doesn't bring guys back from ACLs earlier than 10 months, and you can be sure the recent rust Jenkins and Tonyan (and Bakh's lengthy, rocky recovery) will ensure they don't rush him back. That leaves you thin at EDGE with Preston, Enagbare and Garvin. If they draft an EDGE in R1, they will push him into the lineup. There is a need by your definition.
You could argue WR is a need by your definition, I'm not convinced they roll out Watson, Doubs and Toure (or Melton) in 11 personnel in Game 1.
Free Agency/cap space will actually drive their needs. If they don't bring in a cheap vet at TE or DL, they will draft one and have to give them a chunk of snaps. Maybe those aren't first stringer, but they will need to draft players who can play significant snaps.
Another way to look at needs is one season down the road. This is AJ Dillon's final year, do you want to keep him? Can you afford him? What if this is Bahktiari's last year? Who's the backup if Rodgers comes back and Love demands a trade, and then Rodgers gets hurt? You generally would prefer to keep your own players but you can't afford to keep all the good ones. If you have drafted players in the pipeline ready to step in, that saves you cap space, and it's a lot better than throwing a rookie out there to struggle through a full season of snaps. Rodgers wouldn't be who he is if they threw him on the field as a rookie.
A lot of probablys and might bes in there hahahaha. I did say, Safety would be a need if ..... the difference is, I think the "probably" side is keeping Amos, not letting him go. Ditto that for Tonyan. I'd almost bet that the Packers have more faith in his returning to form than any other team does. Lewis not being under contract is the same as the situation the past couple of years. I'd bet also that he comes back. Deguara is the one under contract, and whatever about the 4th TE. He probably gets replaced by a mid to late rounder. Ford and a couple of those young Safetys looked decent last preseason also. And for some reason, they I kinda doubt they give up on Savage - the staff apparently isn't as negative about him as a lot of fans.
I really don't think we need an O Lineman except maybe at the bottom end of the draft. D Line too, the way the Packers/Barry play defense, isn't a very high priority. I guess we agree that Edge is the best bet in Round One. But I'm not as sure as you seem to be that Gary is out 'til Octorber. And having a First rounder in a 4 man rotation for two spot isn't quite the same as making him an instant starter. I actually do think they start Watsonand Doubs in Game One with Toure getting PT also (who is "Melton"?). And you didn't mention Lazard, who I still think is 60/40 to be a Packer or Cobb, who as a vet minimum 5th or 6th WR is probably better than most alternatives.
You mention Dillon the following year; I've never had the highest opinion of Dillon, but who knows whether he will be a priority a year from now or not. Myself, I like Patrick Taylor just about as much, also that PS guy from Iowa. Undoubtedly we draft a RB late, though. I also said in one of those posts, we probably need a backup QB.
What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?
What is the argument for keeping Amos? He looked slow, missed tackles, and clearly didn't play as well as he had earlier in his career. Good guy, but what is the argument for keeping a 30 year old safety who showed a big decline in his play? Rudy Ford is a free agent who might not be back, Abernathy was a XFL guy, Gaines has been mostly on IR. Are you sure you want them as your 17 game starters?
Savage is on his 5th year option which is fully guaranteed at about $7-8M. He'll get another chance to play a safety but he could be back in the slot like he was at end of year. Those castoffs were replacing him at safety. That does not sound like an ideal situation to me, and if you can resolve it via draft you do so. You can bet GB would rather have Savage's cap space than a guy who can't beat out UDFAs.
Lazard is thought to be looking for DJ Chark money (10-11M per year). I don't think they have the cap space for that. Not when they still have to get under the cap as it is.
There are a number of what-if's, but as a GM you would be grossly negligent -- risk management is a part of a leader's job -- to not account for some roster depth risk issues. That's what you need backups for.
As a supposed "draft and develop" team the idea is to draft a year before you need to play them.
I like Taylor/Goodson and they are decent RB3 but I don't know if they are going to be your RB1 or 2. If a team thought much of them they could've been plucked off GB's PS. They will need to start looking for the next Aaron Jones this year or next, and if Dillon is gone they won't have a lot at RB in 2 years.
What Lazard is looking for and what he's likely to get probably are several million apart. If he can soak some team for that much, more power to him. I put it at 70/30 that they sign Savage for 3-4 years at $7-8 per - back loaded/cap friendly. I put it at about 100% that detractor fans raise holy hell about it hahahaha. R. Ford shouldn't be any more expensive than last season. I liked Abernathy. Gaines ain't much, but the fact that he stuck around makes him a possibility. I'd take a Safety in the 2nd - 4th round depending on who's available. A new DB coach and ideally, a new DC might do wonders for Savage also.
I won't call Dillon a "plodder", cuz the last time I did, somebody brought up his 40 speed which was more impressive than his game speed looks like. However, I'd rather have a speedier/shiftier/more Jones or Goodson-like RB any day, and P. Taylor on hand for special teams and short yardage.
Whatshisname, Snoop Dog's nephew wasn't on the FA list; Can we assume he's still under contract, Joe?
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Man Dillon is so much like that old thick boy tight end that had cement shoes and went down when lightly bumped. Same guy 2.0. Maybe Dillon can catch a big Hail Mary too.
Nixon is a FA. He'll cost money to keep. An above average returner who can give you some decent play at slot corner has value.Whatshisname, Snoop Dog's nephew wasn't on the FA list; Can we assume he's still under contract, Joe?
I wouldn't want Savage at $7-8M per for 3-4 years. Way too steep for his production, especially given some of the safeties coming out this year and next. He's physically talented, but hasn't put it together. If you haven't done it after 4 years, you probably aren't.
I see GB is talking with Lazard, but nothing significant and he's going to test the market. I think he'll get some interest, and I could see a team talking themselves into overpaying him. That's how FA works. I'm not sure what he's worth, he's a good WR3 and big slot guy who can block. I could see a team with cap space like CHI throwing him an MVS type of deal for 3/30 or more. GB would be hard pressed to match that. Frankly, I'm not sure I'd want them to. They can probably get Robert Woods for a quarter of that; he knows MLF and can block.
I love Lazard but tbh if your most significant contribution at WR is your reputation for blocking, maybe you're not that great of a WR.
Dick Rod.
Tonyan is slowly turning into him, I fear. No ability to RAC, but if he gets open he'll catch it.
IMO Dillon didn't run the same last year as the year before. Seemed like he was easier to tackle. He got a little better late so maybe there's hope, but for a big fast guy he doesn't often run like it.
I still think he's a good RB2, I'm not sure they've used him correctly or put him in the best spots to succeed -- especially this last year, where he was getting RPO handoffs from shotgun. That's not his best setup. I think you want to hand off to him with QB under center and let him get a little bit of build up speed so when he get to the line he's knocking guys back or hitting the hole fast enough to cause problems for the back 7 of a defense.
Dillon had 6 broken tackles last year compared to 17 the year before. For much of the year I thought he was trying too much to make tacklers miss instead of just using his power to go through them. As you say, he did get much better late in the year. I wonder if he looked at some 2021 film during the bye week and saw what he needs to be.
I thought Tonyan was running better the last 3 weeks or so of the season. I think he's worth bringing back one more time to see if he can approach his 2020 form.
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
Yeah, needs all over. They don't have a roster to compete to win a Super Bowl.
QB - Need a back
RB - Not a need but a 3rd back is needed
TE - Tonyan is a nice option, I like him but he isn't top tier TE and he is a free agent
OL - Lots of depth and from LT, LG, C you might not find a better ratio of talent, but injuries haven't been kind to them. Right side was horrible towards the end of the season
WR - So young, only gonna add another young player, but certainly a need there
DT - Clark is a stud, too many plays. Wyatt is young and looks the part towards the end of the year. Where is the depth? They Need a 3rd guy!
OLB/Edge - Smith makes a lot of money, Gary should be 100% come the start of the season and Engabare may continue to improve into a really nice guy. They could make a splash because they cut Smith, but I would say a less of a need than other positions but you can't move on from Smith if you don't take a high end guy in the draft
LB - Walker is athletic but has to improve his fundamentals, controlling his emotions, and technique/reads for him to be really good. Campbell seems not athletic enough to be considered in the nickel package.
CB - Alexander is a top 3 guy in the NFL, Stokes was having a down year before he got hurt. the lighting in the bottle may be gone when talking about Rasul Douglas. I don't like his lack of top end speed and guess work. Need a legit nickel or #3 corner.
Safety - Huge need Amos is a liability in coverage to much of a swing and miss guy in open field tackling. Savage is flawed in his understanding of playing scheme football. He might find life as a nickel but the Packers desperately need impact players at safety.
Kicker - They need one.
A roster good enough to win 13 or 14 in the regular season - that's what I'm after, Super Bowl be damned, unless we happen to luck into getting there.
QB - agree, a backup
RB - disagree, P. Taylor, Goodson, and whoever else are plenty good enough
TE - Tonyan used to be "top tier" and 50% chance he is again and stronger chance he stays a Packer, but yes, draft a TE maybe 3rd or 4th round to replace Tyler Davis.
OL - no need - we've got plenty, and it's a low priority position IMO. Draft no higher than 7th.
WR - agree except maybe 7th round or so
OLB/Edge - my choice for first rounder even though I agree, Gary is probably 100% or close by the start and Engabare is damn good. I don't think they cut P. Smith ...... but mostly by default, I'd go Edge.
DT - We do have pretty good depth there too. Draft one, but no higher than 4th.
ILB - Walker should be very good, maybe great. Campbell is a mystery - I don't see a reason he shouldn't return to '20 form. We could maybe use a backup if we don't keep Barnes, but they aren't that hard to find and we do have a couple of others.
Corner - Maybe if a good one is available, but probably not. We have the 3 excellent ones for the two outside spots, and between one of them, Nixon, Savage, and a new DB coach, we should have the slot covered.
Safety - I don't see Amos as a liability. I think the problem was scheme and coaching. And strong chance IMO we keep Amos. Between Savage, R. Ford, the PS guys, and (maybe most important) new DB coaching, I don't see much of an actual need. But I'd still draft a Safety maybe 2nd or 3rd.
Kicker - agree, for sure
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With the exception of QB and OL, very few players continue to play well past age 30 or 31. If a player starts to drop off around that age, they are unlikely to bounce back.
Amos and Devondre fall into that category, as do Reed and Lowry.
You also have to assume a player who has one outlier great year is unlikely to repeat it. Rasul and Devondre fall into the category, although I'd argue Rasul was solid enough last year.
Not saying Rasul or Devondre are bad players, but I think you can't expect more than average or slightly better play from them for more than 1-2 more years. Turnover in best-CB changes especially fast. Jalen Ramsey is still good but he was old news at 28. It's just the facts of aging and athleticism, and why you have to constantly have young cheap talent on the roster.
If Amos is back I will be surprised. I do think they can find decent safeties on Day 2 or 3 who will be an upgrade over Amos/Savage/Ford. Rudy Ford might be ok, he was a big reason they beat DAL but he also got benched for a while last year. I'm sure they are nice guys, but this is not an above-average or even league average performing group. Amos and Savage ranked 81st and 87th out of 88 safeties graded by PFF.
Tonyan might bounce back from injury, but I don't think he's more than a TE2 at best. They will need to draft and develop at least one if not two TE.
I am far less optimistic than some here re: safety and w/r/t Rashan Gary. I think he'll be back and play ok 2nd half of the season, but it will be the following year that he really bounces back. At that point he'll be on a new contract, hopefully with GB. Until then (i.e. the first 4-6 games minimum) they absolutely need more pass rush help. They have very thin depth until Gary is back.
They don't have much at DL either, with Clark, Slaton and Wyatt. One injury there and they're stuck trotting out a player who couldn't even make the active gameday roster ONCE last year in J.Ford. If they don't bring Reed or Lowry back (I'd prefer Reed) they will have to draft a DL. Clark needs help on the line, he draws double teams constantly and having someone else who can pass-rush would improve the defense considerably. They were abysmal against the run and have been for some time. You can put that on scheme, but allowing 5.0 ypc is not winning defense and I doubt any DC would actually be ok with that stat.
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