“ The data suggest that teams negotiating draft positions assign roughly the same value for picks 12-20 and exponentially higher or lower values for picks near the beginning or end of the round.”
https://www.casino.org/features/nfl-draft/
“ The data suggest that teams negotiating draft positions assign roughly the same value for picks 12-20 and exponentially higher or lower values for picks near the beginning or end of the round.”
https://www.casino.org/features/nfl-draft/
I believe it. Usually there are numerous tiers of players and by the teens it's unlikely there is a bonafide elite player available. (Yes, you can get lucky and hit on a player.)Originally Posted by Fosco33
By the time you get to 28 teams maybe jockeying to get into the 1st round to get a player eligible for 5th your option. The more years you can control the contract of a young player the better.
It's way too early, but right now I feel like if they just miss the playoffs and end up with the 14th pick or something, they should pull a 2018 and trade down and get more picks. I doubt they will.
I've come around to the belief that GB (Ted/Gute) has a "Don't draft WRs in R1" rule. I think they need to draft another WR unless they bring both Lazard and Cobb back (which is an iffy idea at best). They need to get better at TE also.
Agree. I want them to win, I just don't think they will.if you have a 50% shot if you win out - you 100% take it. There’s no tanking in Packer land.
I am skeptical the difference between 11 and 14 in this draft is significant. I could be wrong.
Don't think for a second soft Matty wants to fire his buddy
What if winning out means we keep Barrry ? Embrace the Tank for the greater good
LIFE IS ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIPS; I JUST REALIZED THIS. The MILWAUKEE BUCKS have won the same number of championships over the past 50 years as the Green Bay Packers. Ten years from now, who will have more championships, and who will be the fart in the wind ?
So is Elgton going to resign as a tackle, or a guard? Is Bak back next year given how good Tom has looked? Lots of interesting questions on the OL. I'm not sure what they should do next year.
I think there's a LOT of external pressure to fire Barry from fans, which teams have ignored in the past.
In Barry's case, there internal pressure as well -- Jaire is freelancing big time, basically doing what he wants. I think some players have tuned him out. The defense has a lot of draft picks and cap spending on the defensive side and they have vastly underperformed (remember whispers of a top 5 defense?), so Gute and Murphy have to have opinions on his performance. I suspect MLF does too, and we know Rodgers does.
MLF won't can Barry until end of season for the optics league wide (who wants to play for a coach who won't even let you coach the full season, and can you in less than 2 years?) as well as the personal connections he has with Barry and other McVay-ites.
In fairness to Barry, there have been times where the defense has played well, and even a few where the scheme or game plan was reasonable but not executed well.
I don't think that's enough to save him, and I don't see how Barry keeps his job unless the defense suddenly start holding teams to < 10 points from here on out. Even then I think it's too late. Name one player besides Rashan Gary who has improved under Barry. His defenses have not been statistically much better than Pettine's.
We don't have Gary
We don't have Stokes
We have other injuries
And PPG I think we're at 15. Ditching Barry is not a given
LIFE IS ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIPS; I JUST REALIZED THIS. The MILWAUKEE BUCKS have won the same number of championships over the past 50 years as the Green Bay Packers. Ten years from now, who will have more championships, and who will be the fart in the wind ?
The defense was underperforming before they lost Gary and Stokes though. 15th isn't good enough for a team that spent 9 of its last 10 1st round picks, and most of its key free agent acquisitions on defense. If MLF keeps Barry, he will be putting his own coaching success in the hands of a guy who he now has to know is a mediocrity.
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
As of Week 15 GB is ranked 13th in overall DVOA, 7th on offense and 22nd on defense.
They are giving up 5 ypc against the run, their run defense by DVOA or EPA is atrocious, and they are well inside the top 10 in big plays given up despite playing a soft bend-but-don't-break style of predominantly zone defense.
MLF has to know he can't keep Barry. Everyone else certainly seems to.
The offense has started to improve (call it the Watson effect, as well as possibly Rodgers' thumb healing) but the defense? Nope.
They held the Rams under 200 yards but that team is a disaster without Stafford, Kupp or Donald playing. Beating the Bears the previous game was great, but it's not impressive in the overall landscape of the season. MIA, MIN and DET are fringe-playoff caliber teams at a minimum, we'll see how the defense looks against them.
I'm seeing a bunch of what ifs stupidly suggesting things if we lose to Miami. I'll give another what if. What if the Packers beat Miami? Furthermore, what if the knock of the Vikings and finish up beating Detroit, thereby likely making the playoffs? This IMO is a helluva lot more likely than floundering and losing. Specifically, what happens regarding Barry if the team ends the season successfully - either going all the way and winning the Super Bowl or at least being respectable, losing at some point in the playoffs? I would hope they would fire Barry anyway, as I see any success in spite of his D scheming, not because of it. That, of course, is LaFleur's decision (same as regarding Rodgers). And it seems like LaFleur is not exactly in favor of getting rid of Barry.
Regarding the draft, I think we are solid enough personnel-wise in the D Line and ILB. OLB also, assuming Gary comes back healthy, with the emergence of Enagbare and with P. Smith still under contract is not a strong need. Obviously, we are strong at Corner. Safety, though, may be a need with Savage not much of a force. I doubt, though, that Safety would be a first round need. On offense, assuming Rodger is back, we don't need an early round QB. If Love is not traded, we don't even need a QB later. RB also is not a position of need. I think our O Line solid and stable either with or without Bakhtiari. In addition to the starters, we have plenty of depth. We could probably use a WR, but not as an early round pick. TE, we also have plenty of quantity. I'd say we either go for a potentially elite TE in the first or second round or else just go with what we have. So what else is there? Not much.
I think I'd go TE first, Safety second, OLB third, maybe Kicker fourth or fifth round.
What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?
Channeling the late Ted Thompson. Ya gotta go with the best player available. Don't worry about position. Probably a punter.
I think there are a few positions you can probably eliminate in the 1st round. QB (unless they trade Love), RB, TE, ST. Everything else is a real possibility.
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
If we pick around 20 and the best TE is there I could see going that way. This is a good deep TE draft, so grabbing one, or even 2 shouldn't be eliminated from any round.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
Is there are reason you are eliminating TE? The Packers are in dire need of a really good TE. I'd be happy if they got one in the first round.
Fire Murphy, Gute, MLF, Barry, Senavich, etc!
Elite TEs are as rare as elite QBs. Kittle, Kelce, Andrew. Below that you have Pitts, and Hockenson has had a rebirth. Fant is decent, Waller too (if hurt). Austin Hooper is aging.
I think you pay a LOT for a good TE, and I realize it's apple-to-oranges but the receiving production from most starting TEs is about a WR3. I'm not sure that's really worth $10M a year or a R1 pick. Rodgers doesn't use his TEs a lot historically, one partial season of Finley notwithstanding anyway.
Mayer has good hands and can probably play inline, so he figures to be the top TE in the draft and a R1 pick. Maybe the Packers go in that direction, but I thought Dalton Kincaid showed some good things and could be had Day 2 in the draft. Darnell Washington is interesting but boy is he lumbering...he's a moose once he's going but the problem is it takes him a very long time to get going.
Either way, Tonyan might play better a year removed from the ACL, but he also turns 29 and I think most of his best days are behind him. Deguara isn't an inline Y, and Big Dog is old enough to be his dad. TE will have to be addressed, but if it's not done in R1 I wouldn't worry about it. They did nothing about it this past offseason and I don't think Gute will repeat that.
I just don't believe in taking TE's in the 1st round. Gronk, Kelce, Andrews were drafted in 2-3 round. Kittle in the 5th.
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
Greg Olsen, Vernon Davis of Tony Gonzalez were first rounders. They need to fill the position with actual talent. If it's there grab it.
Fire Murphy, Gute, MLF, Barry, Senavich, etc!
Agree with the BPA approach. I think they will shade it to "prefer" certain positions, namely EDGE, DL, OL and S.
Gary is likely to be on the PUP to start the year. They may or may not keep Preston, and he's getting older. I like Enagbare and Hollins as depth, but you can never have enough good pass rushers and like QBs the best ones are usually found early. OLBs sometimes take a year or two to figure out the game also. (Rashan needed time.)
Reed and Lowry are UFA after this year and should not be brought back, meaning they will have Clark, Slaton, Wyatt and Ford (and PS fodder) which is not an inspiring squad. They need more help here.
Amos won't be back. The way he's playing he looks done. Exercising the 5th year option on Savage looks like a mistake, maybe a different scheme or DC can get something out of him, but being on the hook for $8M guaranteed is an albatross contract for a benched player.
OL - if a BPA OL falls to them they will take them. Njiman will want to get paid after next season, and unless Jenkins and Tom are your tackles, you're picking an OT, or you're hoping one of Caleb Jones and Rasheed Walker make a big jump.
There is one TE under contract next year -- Deguara. They can bring Tyler Davis back as a RFA, but should you? He knows the offense but doesn't move the needle and is basically a ST player. Tonyan's legs don't look like they are back. Maybe you bring him back on a cheap contract if he doesn't get interest. Big Dog comes back if he wants to, but you're just getting blocking from him and even that skill is diminishing. I'm ok taking a swing at one in the draft, but not in R1.
They will need to get depth at WR, RB, and slot CB, and if Nixon isn't back the return game. (FWIW I think they try to bring back both ex presidents - Nixon and Ford)
Even if they win out and squeak into the playoffs, I have difficulty seeing them make hay there. They have beaten ONE team with a winning record this year.
A playoff run would present an interesting scenario and possibly save Barry's job, but I sure hope not.
Witness the defense giving up several 3rd and long conversions to the Rams
The Rasul lateral off the interception with no coach correcting him or holding him accountable.
Remember the Eagles game where they gave up more rushing yards to Hurts than Capers did against Kaepernick?
Terrible run defense, soft pass defense, having SEVEN first round picks on your defense (if you count Wyatt) and you still are barely above the bottom quartile of defenses.
A few years back this team's offense experienced addition by the subtraction of Geronimo and Jimmy Graham; I'd argue the defense could experience the same with a different DC.
I'm sure Barry's a nice guy and knows the scheme etc. etc. but based on the defense's performance and his track record I think they need a better DC.
Packers with the 15th pick.
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
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