Yea, I'm not the only one with that thought I see. There are many teams that would give a 2nd for Bak. Some might give a first (looking at you chefs).Originally Posted by Fritz
Yea, I'm not the only one with that thought I see. There are many teams that would give a 2nd for Bak. Some might give a first (looking at you chefs).
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
I asked statmuse.com for a list of QBs who have been to championship games more than once. Statmuse asked me for $20/mo subscription. I did get a (partial?) list that may be useful. Don't know if 2x QBs are complete, and that's most interesting part. My theory is JAG QBs getting to championship games was more common before ~2010. Just my perception.
Tom Brady 14
Steve Young 7
Joe Montana 7
Roger Staubach 7
John Elway 6
Terry Bradshaw 6
Patrick Mahomes 5
Aaron Rodgers 5
Ben Roethlisberger 5
Peyton Manning 5
Donovan McNabb 5
Brett Favre 5
Jim Kelly 5
Ken Stabler 5
Fran Tarkenton 5
Koy Detmer 4
Troy Aikman 4
Frank Reich 4
Bernie Kosar 4
Gary Kubiak 4
Danny White 4
Earl Morrall 4
Craig Morton 4
David Humm 4
Jimmy Garoppolo 3
Joe Flacco 3
Drew Brees 3
Kurt Warner 3
Mark Brunell 3
Jay Schroeder 3
Jim McMahon 3
Dan Marino 3
Don Strock 3
Bob Griese 3
Mike Tomczak 3
Joe Burrow 2
Russell Wilson 2
Colin Kaepernick 2
Matt Ryan 2
Mark Sanchez 2
Eli Manning 2
Jake Delhomme 2
Rich Gannon 2
Steve McNair 2
Kordell Stewart 3
Drew Bledsoe 2
Kerry Collins 2
Neil O'Donnell 2
Steve Bono 2
Mike Pagel 2
Last edited by Harlan Huckleby; 07-30-2023 at 12:18 PM.
Thanks for posting. A few thoughts (not being nitpicky, just my own opinions):
I think Tom Brady skews things.
I also agree that more JAG QBs made it that far pre 2010 because of league rules and the emphasis on the passing game.
Back in the 80's a strong defense and running game would get you far. I'd expect more RBs drafted high back then.
Many of those QBs aren't JAGs... they may not have been elite but they were top 10-12. Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair for example. Earl Morrall won MVP in 68.
I think the number on Gary Kubiak is iffy, if he played that many it was as a kneel-down/mop-up QB. Might be the case with a few others.
I completely agree with the parts where you completely agree with me. And the rest looks OK
I wish I had a more complete list because the JAGs and recents are skewed towards 1-2 appearances. Perhaps I will put my unpaid Mexican intern on the task.
But the list does contain one shocking reveal: a QB named David Humm played in 4 Championship games. The hummer references must have sucked.
PS. I assume the list is for starting QBs. Otherwise it would be overrun with clipboard holders.
When you move the goalposts (2 appearances) you have lost the argument.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
Looking at multiple appearances just clarifies the trends, doesn't move goalposts. I'd like to see a complete set of stats, including single appearances.
You cited some incidental cases, which may or may not reflect overall trends.
If you believe that the NFL has become a less QB-centric league (or stayed about the same over the years) you are entitled to that dubious opinion. I'm even open to the possibility that you are right.
Since recent history is most relevant to this year I go back to my point. Last 6 Owls had Stafford, Over the Hill Brady, Jimmy G, Goff, and Nick Foles.
I would argue that clearly 3 of those guys are flat out not good while 1 is borderline top 10. Brady is brady, but he wasn't peak Brady by that point either. Last year had Hurts, rounding out the last 6 and until he shows me another season like last I'm not crowning him the second coming yet either.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
I missed this because "OWLS" doesn't mean anything to me. I don't consider aging Stafford or Brady JAGS, they were still masterful, and Foles was playing great. You're right there is some Big JAG energy there, but doesn't prove anything.
If ol' Sudsy is right about the cap hit, sure seems Bakh will be around until after the season.
Ish, you make a good point - I think some potentially very good, young quarterbacks may have been ruined by being tossed into the fire without a good offensive line, too early in their QB careers, and become jumpy and skittish as a result. A kind of PTSD.
"The Devine era is actually worse than you remember if you go back and look at it."
KYPack
I'm not positive, but I think that cutting Bak now (post June 1) is not much different than next offseason. Trade would be same effect. I also get Ish's point about giving Love the best chance to succeed, but long term that could be argued for trading Bak now. An Oline of Yosh, Elgon, Myers, Runyan, Tom would be top 10 still. And again, all the draft capital we would enter 2024 draft with would land us the next Bak if necessary.
I think they haven't gotten a good offer yet. They want to have him dominate for about 5-6 weeks, assess our own injuries and such, then if it makes sense they can still move him for a premium pick.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
Hard disagree. I think it's bottom five probably. There is a pro bowl guard, a trash LT and center, an ok guard, and then a young guy with the potential to be a starter that hasn't shown a whole lot yet. Gun to my head I keep Tom and Guard and discard the other three as trash.
Yosh is probably the worst LT in the NFL. If he was a starter at LT he would have gotten an offer aside from the Packers, no? Elgton is very good obviously.
Myers is a jag thus far. Hopefully he shows he's athletic but he looks like he's a day late and a dollar short.
Runyan is Ruyan and he's okay. You can live with a serviceable guard.
Is Tom the real deal at tackle? I think there's a good chance but jury is still out. He's undersized but so what if he plays good. We shall see.
Overall, pretty crap OL without Bak.
Your assessment of OL play is....bad. Yosh isn't the worst LT in football. he is probably about 20. Yes, big downgrade, but he also may have improved for a 3rd straight year and be more like 12-15. Jenkins is elite. Runyan is top 25 (2 starting guards per team). Tom, unless he regresses is honestly a flat out stud. Myers isn't a JAG, its just that most people have no idea to watch blocking at the 2nd level, which he is elite at. A lot of nice Jones runs happened because Myers cut down the pursuit ILB. He does need to improve vs. the bull.
When I say still top 10, I mean about 10-12 to be honest. They can't be inside that without Bak. One thing I can say with certainty is that Yosh gets paid next year. By us or someone else....unless he regresses.
Remember, Yosh played a ton of snaps at LT and those lines still graded out pretty well.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
Did you watch the games last year? Do yo project a big decline from yosh this year, as he was not horrible. He was average. Myers is far from jag, not all pro either but at least top 15 as a pure center. He is a solid blocker in run, great at pass. however his biggest weakness was line adjustments, so losing 12 will hurt him more than anyone else (unless love can tell him the adjustments like 12 did). Tom has massive upside (i think) but he is the one who might be the worst. Time will tell. I agree runyan is runyan. servicable.
All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed they must rely exclusively on force.
George Orwell
Kinda like Joey Harrington. Coulda been great like Julius Caesar. But the Motor City Eminem’s OL was almost as incompetent at protecting Harrington as Caesar’s body guards were on 15 March, 44 BC. The OL pretty much assassinated every ounce of Harrington’s confidence at playing QB.
Btw, Peyton Manning was in cold, dark and dull Green Bay yesterday to catch a Packers practice. We all know how entitled the Mannings are. Ali refused to play for the Whale Vagina Chargers. Peyton refused to workout for a single NFC team upon his release from the, pardon my German, Kultaz.
Manning scouting cold, dark and dull Green Bay for his nephew, hotshot QB Archibald?
I'm not going to stop the wheel. I'm going to break the wheel.
It's definitely a QB centric league now. Getting to the conference championship as a JAG QB means you're on an incredible hot streak or the team has other things going for it, like dynamic playmakers or a killer defense.
I think throwing a rookie out as a starter -- especially if they don't have a good supporting cast or a good coach -- is a recipe for disaster. I think you almost have to sit them a year so they can learn the offense and how to be a pro.
It's a tough position to play well from the mental side, and I think that's why so many young talented QBs bust.
ding ding ding
I thought 2010 was a kinda inflection point and that looks right
How Important is the Quarterback Position for Winning a Super Bowl?
There have been a few memorable playoff JAGS the past couple years, but recency bias distorts the long term trends.
It would be interesting to see how QB salaries (relative to other positions) has varied over decades.
I seriously doubt that GMs today see surrounding a game manager with great defense etc is a smart strategy. But perhaps a stopgap for some teams.
In a changing world recency bias is very relevant. We have done this argument to death over the years and we have had a top 3 QB most of them and one Owl appearance to show for it. And that chart means not so much since league ranking of the QB takes a lot of things into factor. It also shows the "winning QB of the superb owl", not the 4 QBs in the championship game.
I'm not arguing that you WANT a bad QB, I'm just saying that great D and a well balanced team is MORE important than a top 5 QB...especially in a one year window of rankings. Flacco, Dilfer, Foles, Jimmy G, Krapernick and I could go on, have all had Owl wins and appearances. They are not great QBs. Yes, Maholmes, Brady, Brees have also won. Having a great QB gives you an edge, but having a great D is more important. How many Owls did Brady win with a D outside the top 10??
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
The argument is not about any particular measure. There is not a perfect stat. There are dozens of indicators one can think of to show the importance of the QB position. I thought the 4 Championship QBs cast a good broad net. I thought to look for 2x JAGS because it says a lot about the era the guy played in.
If you think that a top defense is more important than a top QB that is a plausible theory. My perception is that it is 1980s, 1990s thinking. There are many stats to look at. Somebody with a lot of research time could build a case one way or another. I've asked Pepe to get on it but he was non-responsive.
Based on that, I see 6 QB outside the top 10 who won in ~35 years. I think those really low ranking winners (below 20) were Dilfer, E.Manning, and N.Foles? There's one I'm not sure is correct -- 2007. I don't recall Peyton being bad that year. Even if he was, I sure wouldn't call pre-2010 Peyton "JAG level".
Interesting article, noting how most SB winning teams are top 10 in O and D, and the QB usually takes up 10-12% of the salary cap space.
Agree about a GM going the game manager and great defense route as a strategy, not unless you know your defense is truly elite and your window very tight/short. Defense has higher year-over-year variation in performance than offense. Your best bet to having success is with a good offense, and the QB drives a lot of that.
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