Official 2024 NFL Draft Thread

[run pMc]

QBs get overdrafted because of their importance in the game and potential value if you hit on one.

Draft success in the aggregate is basically a coin flip, having more/higher picks increases your odds slightly.

I'd also say that the team a player lands on matters a lot.
- If they have a garbage organization and coaching staff, they aren't going to develop. (Justin Fields)
- If they get shoved on the field as a Day 1 starter before they are ready with a leaky OL, they are going to fail. (Zach Wilson)
- If you trade away your best WR, they will struggle. (Bryce Young)

Granted, those QB examples were unlikely to beat the odds because of other shortcomings, but the situation they entered certainly did them no favors.

Jordan Love had time to develop with a patient organization, had a halfway decent OL, and while the receivers were a wildcard, by end of year they had gelled. The big assumption was he'd have a good running game with Jones/Dillon and the defense would hold up, but by midseason things started to trend up.

FWIW I think not having a single, psycho owner helps GB a lot -- the fans and the owner often want the shiny new QB to play right away when they are still learning the playbook. Meanwhile the coach and GM are trying to keep their job. There have been a lot of good QB prospects ruined by being drafted into bad environments.

[Frozen Tundra]

FWIW I think not having a single, psycho owner helps GB a lot -- the fans and the owner often want the shiny new QB to play right away when they are still learning the playbook. Meanwhile the coach and GM are trying to keep their job. There have been a lot of good QB prospects ruined by being drafted into bad environments.

I've often wondered what kind of player Fields might have become if he'd been drafted by Green Bay rather than the Bears. He seemed to have all the skills, but never had the time or the coaching he needed.

[Fritz]

QBs get overdrafted because of their importance in the game and potential value if you hit on one.

Draft success in the aggregate is basically a coin flip, having more/higher picks increases your odds slightly.

I'd also say that the team a player lands on matters a lot.
- If they have a garbage organization and coaching staff, they aren't going to develop. (Justin Fields)
- If they get shoved on the field as a Day 1 starter before they are ready with a leaky OL, they are going to fail. (Zach Wilson)
- If you trade away your best WR, they will struggle. (Bryce Young)

Granted, those QB examples were unlikely to beat the odds because of other shortcomings, but the situation they entered certainly did them no favors.

Jordan Love had time to develop with a patient organization, had a halfway decent OL, and while the receivers were a wildcard, by end of year they had gelled. The big assumption was he'd have a good running game with Jones/Dillon and the defense would hold up, but by midseason things started to trend up.

FWIW I think not having a single, psycho owner helps GB a lot -- the fans and the owner often want the shiny new QB to play right away when they are still learning the playbook. Meanwhile the coach and GM are trying to keep their job. There have been a lot of good QB prospects ruined by being drafted into bad environments.

Far better to have multiple psycho owners, as Green Bay does.

Boy, that's a hell of a list Red put together. I wonder what you'd come up with if you put together a similar list of, say, top-ten picks who were not QB's in the years Red covered. Would you have fewer busts?

[bobblehead]

QBs get overdrafted because of their importance in the game and potential value if you hit on one.

Draft success in the aggregate is basically a coin flip, having more/higher picks increases your odds slightly.

I'd also say that the team a player lands on matters a lot.
- If they have a garbage organization and coaching staff, they aren't going to develop. (Justin Fields)
- If they get shoved on the field as a Day 1 starter before they are ready with a leaky OL, they are going to fail. (Zach Wilson)
- If you trade away your best WR, they will struggle. (Bryce Young)

Granted, those QB examples were unlikely to beat the odds because of other shortcomings, but the situation they entered certainly did them no favors.

Jordan Love had time to develop with a patient organization, had a halfway decent OL, and while the receivers were a wildcard, by end of year they had gelled. The big assumption was he'd have a good running game with Jones/Dillon and the defense would hold up, but by midseason things started to trend up.

FWIW I think not having a single, psycho owner helps GB a lot -- the fans and the owner often want the shiny new QB to play right away when they are still learning the playbook. Meanwhile the coach and GM are trying to keep their job. There have been a lot of good QB prospects ruined by being drafted into bad environments.

First off, props to red on a nice well researched post.

Second of all, props to run for the analysis.

Third, I've been saying for a long time that paying a mediocre QB Maholmes money is idiocy. Run is correct here. The organization, the team around them, the systems run. Bortles looked really good for a minute when he had a good running game and a well designed offense, but then his development hit the Nathaniel Hackett wall. There are a few Unicorns that need to be paid. I suspect Love is no better than a lot of middling QBs, but we have all the things mentioned to make him successful. Same with Brock Purdy. I still would like to see a team simply refuse to pay a QB, recycle guys wo are "ok", and keep a really good roster build. Sign Flacco as the backup and when Tannehill demands to get paid move Flacco in and sign Wentz as the backup. When Flacco demands to get paid move Wentz in (who now has a year in the system) and sign Daniel Jones. On and on it could go. The NFL has 3-5 QBs worthy of the money they get. All the rest is bullshit. Guys look great when everyone around them is good. They look bad when everyone around them sucks. Now, if my latest crush plays well and will take $25 mil instead of demading 45 maybe I keep him.