Official 2024 NFL Draft Thread

[run pMc]

The #41 pick for a guy who will likely play mostly only in base defense, at least the first year, which is about 15 snaps or so a game? I might consider it - defensive linemen make that much difference - but I see the argument against drafting him.

But it's won in the trenches. So that, and another offensive tackle and a guard/center would be okay in my book.

Fair point. A high pick for a guy who probably comes off the field on 3rd down is not for many teams. I do think someone takes him in R2 because of his size and tape unless he craps the bed at the combine.
It's BPA all the way, they have plenty of needs IMO. (We know they won't take a WR in R1.)

My guess is they go heavy on defense, and that most of their early picks are there. RBs can be found Day 3 and they have a probable starting 5 on OL but need a lot of depth. With Walker and Tom they don't need to take an OT early, wouldn't shock me if they did though.

We know Gute likes players who play/practice well at the Senior Bowl, and we know he tends to draft at positions where the draft depth is good. 11 picks this year - that should plug some talent gaps.

[Fritz]

And as I understand the draft, it's a good offensive tackle class. So I wonder if Guter thinks he can get a fine offensive tackle in maybe the third or fourth round, given the depth.

I've heard mixed reports on the safety class. So I don't know. Waiting for harv's scouting reports.

I do wonder, just because their receiver room is filled with what will be second- and third- year guys, if next year they draft another receiver or two, to cover themselves to losing guys in free agency in the next couple years.

I am hoping for multiple safety, running back, and cornerback picks, with a couple of offensive linemen and inside linebackers. By golly, that's ten picks right there!

[Joemailman]

And as I understand the draft, it's a good offensive tackle class. So I wonder if Guter thinks he can get a fine offensive tackle in maybe the third or fourth round, given the depth.

I've heard mixed reports on the safety class. So I don't know. Waiting for harv's scouting reports.

I do wonder, just because their receiver room is filled with what will be second- and third- year guys, if next year they draft another receiver or two, to cover themselves to losing guys in free agency in the next couple years.

I am hoping for multiple safety, running back, and cornerback picks, with a couple of offensive linemen and inside linebackers. By golly, that's ten picks right there!

It is a strong OT class. Tankathon in their Top 100 Big Board has 13 OT's. 15 CB's. 7 safeties. https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/big_board

In the interactive mock drafts I've done, the top safeties are usually available at pick 41. Top running backs are rated as 3rd round picks.

[RashanGary]

I like following baseball even though I don’t watch it at all. It’s the math sport and it’s always fun for me to see those math arguments.

Anyway, in typical baseball fashion, some number cruncher came up with the math of how much ground a 4.40 speed player loses by triggering half a second late and it’s much more than you’d think. Bobble sited it one day, applying it to safety play.

The way the math works out, it’s not that first step you’re losing. Both the player who took his first step early and the player who took their first step late had a first step. That doesn’t change. But the player who took the first step early had an additional half second at the end when he was flying 21mph.

Since I don’t have the math in front of me, I’ll punch it out quick.


21/60mins/60secs = .005833 miles. The quick trigger player gains .005833 miles.

When we multiply .005833 x 5,280 feet in a mile, the quick trigger player gains 30 feet in the last half a second where he’s moving 21mph.

Half a second is a lot and it’s not a lot at the same time when you think of Oren Burks. And even if you go down to 2 tenths of s second or you go down to 18mph, you’re still looking at a measurable and applicable number that would apply to the game of football, especially to the positions that cover a lot of ground because the speed at the end is the speed that affects the outcome.


With that said, a free safety who’s playing centerfield would be one of the positions most affected by this math. A quick first step, a fast top speed, a quick trigger time…. When you start weeding out those who can’t hang, you end up with a pretty small number of players who can even do the job. Nick Collins, Ed Reed, Earl Thomas…. There used to be a few, but you’re not seeing much of that lately. I think it’s kind of a rare breed.


Kam Kinchens looks like a guy who might be one of those rare ones who does it all in the outfield. He’s expected to fly in the 40, he’s proven instinctive and quick to trigger in the deep parts of the field. He’s got a thick, durable frame. He’s not as good in the box, so you kind of hate taking more of a pure “one position” kind of player. But if it’s a rare position, a hard to find one, and your coordinator likes to play one high more than normal, maybe you have a high grade on that guy.

[bobblehead]

I like following baseball even though I don’t watch it at all. It’s the math sport and it’s always fun for me to see those math arguments.

Anyway, in typical baseball fashion, some number cruncher came up with the math of how much ground a 4.40 speed player loses by triggering half a second late and it’s much more than you’d think. Bobble sited it one day, applying it to safety play.

The way the math works out, it’s not that first step you’re losing. Both the player who took his first step early and the player who took their first step late had a first step. That doesn’t change. But the player who took the first step early had an additional half second at the end when he was flying 21mph.

Since I don’t have the math in front of me, I’ll punch it out quick.


21/60mins/60secs = .005833 miles. The quick trigger player gains .005833 miles.

When we multiply .005833 x 5,280 feet in a mile, the quick trigger player gains 30 feet in the last half a second where he’s moving 21mph.

Half a second is a lot and it’s not a lot at the same time when you think of Oren Burks. And even if you go down to 2 tenths of s second or you go down to 18mph, you’re still looking at a measurable and applicable number that would apply to the game of football, especially to the positions that cover a lot of ground because the speed at the end is the speed that affects the outcome.


With that said, a free safety who’s playing centerfield would be one of the positions most affected by this math. A quick first step, a fast top speed, a quick trigger time…. When you start weeding out those who can’t hang, you end up with a pretty small number of players who can even do the job. Nick Collins, Ed Reed, Earl Thomas…. There used to be a few, but you’re not seeing much of that lately. I think it’s kind of a rare breed.


Kam Kinchens looks like a guy who might be one of those rare ones who does it all in the outfield. He’s expected to fly in the 40, he’s proven instinctive and quick to trigger in the deep parts of the field. He’s got a thick, durable frame. He’s not as good in the box, so you kind of hate taking more of a pure “one position” kind of player. But if it’s a rare position, a hard to find one, and your coordinator likes to play one high more than normal, maybe you have a high grade on that guy.

I actually had no clue the math was out there, I was just running numbers because I have always said the 40 time is way over rated. A guy who takes a good angle runs a RB out of bounce. A guy who takes a bad angle better be WAY faster. I ran the numbers just to make the point.

[RashanGary]

I actually had no clue the math was out there, I was just running numbers because I have always said the 40 time is way over rated. A guy who takes a good angle runs a RB out of bounce. A guy who takes a bad angle better be WAY faster. I ran the numbers just to make the point.

Well, it hit home. There’s a huge difference in a half a second, and the further the distance you’re covering, the worse that half second gets.

Same reason a receiver who runs a 4.55 can easily out perform a receiver who runs a 4.33 if the slower guy is better at inducing false steps in his opponent. The advantage you get from a head start is so much greater than the advantage of track speed. We saw it when Kittle torched Savage in the divisional round. Savage is so much faster in a track meet, but since kittle was already up to speed with his head start, Savage was spending his time getting up to speed. He would have caught kittle eventually because he is faster, but it was too little, too late.

So receivers who can create hesitation in their opponent, out perform “fast” every time. It’s nice to have both, but if you had to pick, you’d take Wick’s crossover, over Janis’ speed.

[Frozen Tundra]

d

And as I understand the draft, it's a good offensive tackle class. So I wonder if Guter thinks he can get a fine offensive tackle in maybe the third or fourth round, given the depth.

Considering that our two starting OTs are a 4th and a 7th, I think it's likely Gutekunst is confident that he can find solid depth in the mid or even later mid rounds.

What a difference a few months make... it was probably as recently as October when we were all half-hoping we'd draft early enough to get one of the premium tackles. Top 15, but at least Top 20. Now, we're set at both tackle spots, and can afford to draft a prospect who's less polished. Which frees up that 1st Rounder for something more urgent, like a DB.

Meanwhile, I can't get over how many media nitwits with their idiotic mock drafts are still predicting we're going OT in Round 1 because tackle is a our most desperate need. Things like that make it so hard to take any of the mocks seriously, because they clearly know nothing about our team or its needs. They just copy one another.

I do wonder, just because their receiver room is filled with what will be second- and third- year guys, if next year they draft another receiver or two, to cover themselves to losing guys in free agency in the next couple years.

I think it's a certainty, and I wouldn't be surprised if they took one already this year, and wouldn't be shocked if we took two (or at least brought in another UFDA, like Malik Heath). But by 25, I think we'll definitely be drafting 1 or 2 receivers a year to keep the shelves stocked.

Right now, it's like we won the WR Powerball; I think that next year, our receiver corps will rank as one of the top 2 or 3 in the league, top to bottom, and every single one of them is still on a rookie contract. Trouble is, that means they're all going to be due for their 2nd contract (a money contract) at almost the same time, and we're going to lose several of them in a pretty short span of time. If we can keep the position stocked with fresh talent, it'll be easier for us to survive that, and we can trade one or two before their paydays.

I am hoping for multiple safety, running back, and cornerback picks, with a couple of offensive linemen and inside linebackers. By golly, that's ten picks right there!

Perfect! And still leaves one for a kicker!

Seriously, i think by the time Gute is through wheeling and dealing on draft weekend, the number "11" is very unlikely to be the actual number of picks we end up with. He'll probably use all those chips to dance around moving up and down to get maximum value from each one. We could easily end up with anywhere between 9 and 13 picks by the end of day 3.

[Joemailman]

Easton Butler
@Easton__Butler

The Packers met with Texas A&M LB Edgerrin Cooper at the Shrine Bowl.

Cooper is rated by many as a 2nd round pick, although Daniel Jeremiah has him at #20 overall.

[run pMc]

Yeah, that's why you're better off with a player having great instincts and a 4.55 vs. a blazing fast 4.4 guy with no instincts. Hesitation or false steps can be killers.

Halfass's scheme is likely to use a lot of centerfield safety, like a Cover 1 or Cover 3. That centerfield guy needs to be able to cover a lot of ground. Barry was more of a two deep safety guy, demands on the safeties were a little different. My guess is it's easier to find half-field safeties vs. centerfielders with good enough speed and instincts to cover all that ground. No matter what Gute or others say, their draft strategy and types of players they will be looking at is going to change a little. I suspect they are scouting Kinchens closely.

As for Edgerrin Cooper, I heard some media guy say that GB was paying a lot of attention to the LBs and talking to all of them at these scouting bowls (E/W, Shrine, Senior). They absolutely have to get better at LB - Campbell likely won't be back and is old, McDuffie is a nice backup but I'm not sure he can hold up full time (or that you want him to). There are a number of mid-round LBs (including Cooper) who could fit what they want and I think they will take one or two.

Safety and LB are areas they needed to get better at even if they kept Barry. Your defense needs to have that strong spine down the middle, GB is maybe halfway there with the DL and Quay. It's up to Gute to find guys to finish that reconstruction.

[bobblehead]

Wicks is channeling Adams so much it hurts to watch.

[Frozen Tundra]

Wicks is channeling Adams so much it hurts to watch.

And a fifth round pick....

[run pMc]

What GB does at safety will be very interesting. I can't help but think they'll bring in a vet and pair with a draft pick, but maybe that's just resigning Ford? The other thought is they do at S what they did at TE and draft a couple and just roll with rookies and hope they develop. Seems a bit risky to me, so I'd expect them to sign someone.

I like Tyler Nubin, but I suspect for Halfass's D they look at Kam Kinchens. He reminds me of Savage, but a little bigger and much more of a ballhawk. It looks like he could be rangy enough to play centerfield, and he led the ACC in interceptions the last two years. Not sure if he's a better tackler (haven't watched enough tape) and he's a little on the small side for a S, but I could see them spendng an early pick on a safety. In fact, I'm expecting it.

[Frozen Tundra]

What GB does at safety will be very interesting. I can't help but think they'll bring in a vet and pair with a draft pick, but maybe that's just resigning Ford? The other thought is they do at S what they did at TE and draft a couple and just roll with rookies and hope they develop. Seems a bit risky to me, so I'd expect them to sign someone.

I like Tyler Nubin, but I suspect for Halfass's D they look at Kam Kinchens. He reminds me of Savage, but a little bigger and much more of a ballhawk. It looks like he could be rangy enough to play centerfield, and he led the ACC in interceptions the last two years. Not sure if he's a better tackler (haven't watched enough tape) and he's a little on the small side for a S, but I could see them spendng an early pick on a safety. In fact, I'm expecting it.

I agree; I really think we get one on the open market, just for the peace of mind from having at least one known quantity. Drafting 2 and hoping they both pan out is a huge risk, partly pecause safeties tend to take a while to develop. I'd like to see us hit the road running and get off to a good start; a couple losses in September hurt us just as much in the race for home field and even the conferenc championship as losses in December.

If we count solely on the draft, we may go safety in Round 2 or even Round 1, and again 3rd or 4th.

If we do sign 1 free agent (which seems quite likely), we probably draft another in the 3rd or 4th.

That's my wild-ass guess for the day, anyway

[bobblehead]

What GB does at safety will be very interesting. I can't help but think they'll bring in a vet and pair with a draft pick, but maybe that's just resigning Ford? The other thought is they do at S what they did at TE and draft a couple and just roll with rookies and hope they develop. Seems a bit risky to me, so I'd expect them to sign someone.

I like Tyler Nubin, but I suspect for Halfass's D they look at Kam Kinchens. He reminds me of Savage, but a little bigger and much more of a ballhawk. It looks like he could be rangy enough to play centerfield, and he led the ACC in interceptions the last two years. Not sure if he's a better tackler (haven't watched enough tape) and he's a little on the small side for a S, but I could see them spendng an early pick on a safety. In fact, I'm expecting it.

I've seen Kinchens and DeJean slip into the 2nd. Landing both would be a coup. I can definitely envision Gutes moving up or back from our pick. DeJean can play all over a D from slot to boundary to either S. I think he goes higher than some do just because of that versatility, but if he is available when we pick, pairing him with Kinchens revamps the secondary nicely.

[run pMc]

I've seen Kinchens and DeJean slip into the 2nd. Landing both would be a coup. I can definitely envision Gutes moving up or back from our pick. DeJean can play all over a D from slot to boundary to either S. I think he goes higher than some do just because of that versatility, but if he is available when we pick, pairing him with Kinchens revamps the secondary nicely.

Yeah, if GB landed DeJean and Kinchens without having to trade up, I'd be pretty excited. I've seen a lot of online stuff saying DeJean is the best DB in the draft, period. You can play him anywhere in the secondary.

[SudsMcBucky]

Yeah, if GB landed DeJean and Kinchens without having to trade up, I'd be pretty excited. I've seen a lot of online stuff saying DeJean is the best DB in the draft, period. You can play him anywhere in the secondary.

The only way they're getting DeJean is if they DID trade up. He ain't lasting til 25.

[run pMc]

The only way they're getting DeJean is if they DID trade up. He ain't lasting til 25.

Agree. I don't think he falls to 25 unless he has an injury or a bad combine.
I figure 5 QB and probably 4-5 WRs go in top 25, leaving about 15 picks among the other positions (DB and OL ,primarily) to go before GB picks. I'm assuming DeJean will be gone.

As tempting as it may be, if I were Gute I would be more likely to trade down than up, but that's also my personal bias/preference. It's unlikely there are 25 players with a Round 1 grade, so trading back to pick up another Top 100 pick wouldn't bother me.

Whatever they do, if they have another draft like the last 2 they will have one of the best rosters in terms of good young talent.

[bobblehead]

The only way they're getting DeJean is if they DID trade up. He ain't lasting til 25.

Every year I see this said about 50 different players, yet in the history of the draft there has never been 50 players go in the top 25.

Joking aside, my opinion is also that he won't be there at 25, but its my opinion. Wyatt and Kenny Clark being available late in the first stunned me, as did TJ Watt. Guys slip, it happens all the time. I respect your opinion, just don't go full skinbasket and state your opinion as fact.

[call_me_ishmael]

It wouldn't surprise me to see the Packers identify the next tall-and-thicc ass Oregon DL in the 1st round and pick them. SF has made bank doing that.

[Joemailman]

I keep doing these mock draft simulations at https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com...raft-simulator and Newton is available at 25. Thoughts?

25 Jer'zhan Newton - DL - Illinois

41 Kamren Kinchens - S - Miami

58 Edgerrin Cooper - LB - Texas A&M

88 Calen Bullock - S - USC

91 Trey Benson - RB - Florida St.

126 Dominick Puni - IOL - Kansas

167 Jaylin Simpson - CB - Auburn