Official 2024 NFL Draft Thread

[run pMc]

I also think Barry knew he had subpar safeties and played them extra deep. He was scared about getting beat over the top for a big play. Problem was he played them deeper than he needed to IMO. Also, losing Rasul, and Stokes/Jaire for most of the year made him nervous at corner, the *allentines did ok in zone but when you play a lot of Cover 2 or Cover 4 (or other MOFO variants) you're leaving the short-to-intermediate areas open, and Campbell has lost his speed and Quay isn't the most instinctive in coverage. Rushing 4, dropping 4 deep and leaving 3 to cover the rest is tough and lets offenses dog walk you down the field for 8-10 play drives.

I'm not completely sold on Hafley and wanting to play a lot of Cover 1 - it's going to expose the defense to a lot more explosive pass plays. GB does have pass rushers, so that's the saving grace there. One thing about Hafley based on interviews and all the background pieces coming out is that unlike Barry he seems to be adaptable with his scheme and play calling. Barry was very much attached to a specific scheme and loathe to deviate from it. Hafley has worked in a few different schemes as well which should help him adjust, but I'm taking a wait and see approach with him as DC.

One thing is for sure: he'll need a safety who can actually play MOFC deep Cover-1. The ones who can do it well aren't common. The really good ones are HOF types like Ed Reed, Earl Thomas, etc., which makes me wonder if it's viable to play that a lot (maybe they go Cover-3, but Jordan Love just absolutely roasted Dan Quinn's Cover-3 in Dallas). Hafley is also going to need speed (and instincts) at ILB; Quay and McDuffie aren't enough. Even if they only play 2 ILBs at a time they need a 3rd for depth - Quay and McDuffie missed time with injuries last year, and competition-wise neither player is irreplaceable.

[Fritz]

Holy shit Nutzy. You are like the fucking nuclear physicist of high school coaches.

[Deputy Nutz]

Holy shit Nutzy. You are like the fucking nuclear physicist of high school coaches.

Professional sports is the last to adapt to new ideas because of the talent and changing scheme could result in getting fired from a multi million dollar contract. I would say most coaches at the high school level adapt to what is happening at the college level. College level ball still has to adapt to talent gaps so you see some really innovative offenses and defenses, that you can hopefully simplify to the high school game. Adapt or die.

[Fritz]

Professional sports is the last to adapt to new ideas because of the talent and changing scheme could result in getting fired from a multi million dollar contract. I would say most coaches at the high school level adapt to what is happening at the college level. College level ball still has to adapt to talent gaps so you see some really innovative offenses and defenses, that you can hopefully simplify to the high school game. Adapt or die.

So nobody’s running the Wing T on offense these days . . . .


So college ball is where most of the innovation is happening? Interesting. Makes sense, too.

[Deputy Nutz]

So nobody’s running the Wing T on offense these days . . . .


So college ball is where most of the innovation is happening? Interesting. Makes sense, too.

Gus Mahlzan's offense is based off the Wing T. The Wing T has a lasting impact on just about every level of football. Buck sweep which was the bread and butter of Wing T teams is now getting run as pin/pull with back side RPO glance routes or a slant over the backside linebacker. Buck Sweep can now be run with a read scheme to the backside giving the QB read responsibility for a 4 tech or defensive end. You still see belly and trap at all levels, you certainly see jet sweep. What you don't see is traditional Wing T formations with two backs and a wing. The QB replaces a lot of what the traditional fullback would do.

There is only so many types of run schemes you can create. The real magic is with formations, personnel, and motions to either out number the defense, or dress it up to create confusion. Same can be said for defensive football. You create more hybrid positions so that more guys can insert and more guys can drop into coverage regardless of traditional position assignments. You never want to put yourself in a situation where a defensive end is trying like hell to run man on a WR, but you can blend Fire Zone concepts all day long.

[texaspackerbacker]

I have often wondered why nobody wants to go back to the old split backs thing - Taylor and Hornung, Anderson and Grabowski, etc. instead of using a mostly useless plug of a fullback and just one RB on the field who is actually capable of a worthwhile run. That sort of thing would also be more beneficial for using backs as receivers and probably would be at least as effective for pass blocking. There seem to be more and more top quality RBs coming out of college all the time also. I've always favored a pass first/run mainly as a counter threat, but regardless, I like the idea of having Aaron Jones and another equal or close to it threat on the field a large share of the time - as much as when we use an I formation now or more.

[Fritz]

I have often wondered why nobody wants to go back to the old split backs thing - Taylor and Hornung, Anderson and Grabowski, etc. instead of using a mostly useless plug of a fullback and just one RB on the field who is actually capable of a worthwhile run. That sort of thing would also be more beneficial for using backs as receivers and probably would be at least as effective for pass blocking. There seem to be more and more top quality RBs coming out of college all the time also. I've always favored a pass first/run mainly as a counter threat, but regardless, I like the idea of having Aaron Jones and another equal or close to it threat on the field a large share of the time - as much as when we use an I formation now or more.

This is a case in which I can say I have wondered the same thing, Tex.

So . . . . Dr. Nutzy, for what reasons is this not happening? Too much invested in the run and not the forward pass?

[sharpe1027]

This is a case in which I can say I have wondered the same thing, Tex.

So . . . . Dr. Nutzy, for what reasons is this not happening? Too much invested in the run and not the forward pass?

My guess is that it is generally favored to have two TEs and one deep RB when they want a formation with good run pass balance.

[Deputy Nutz]

This is a case in which I can say I have wondered the same thing, Tex.

So . . . . Dr. Nutzy, for what reasons is this not happening? Too much invested in the run and not the forward pass?

Specialization. In the 80s Auburn decided to break from the wishbone so that they could feature Bo Jackson. Nebraska broke from the wishbone in the 90s to feature their I backs instead of their fullbacks. Ask the bigger guy to focus on blocking, and ask the more athletic guy to run the damn ball 35 times a game. Again, I would say it started in college, to recruit Eric Dickerson, Bo Jackson, Barry Sanders, and even guys like Ahman Green you needed to draw them to your school and to do that you needed to have a featured back. You didn't really ask them to block unless it was pass pro. So featured backs began to lose the skill of run blocking. Featured backs in the NFL became expensive, a luxury item, they were well paid and you weren't going to take carries away from your highest paid offensive weapon. Also, you couldn't afford two of those guys in your backfield. The last time I can even think of having two Hall of Fame type backs in the same backfield was Jackson and Allen with the Raiders, and I can't remember if they used both at the same time.

You also had the advent of the West Coast offense which changed how the game of football was played, especially in the NFL. You still had two back sets and the fullback was still primarily utilized as a blocker, but they had to catch the ball out of the backfield just as well if not better than your featured back. Then as the West Coast offense began to meld with the Air Raid, fullbacks became H-backs or Y-off players. they aligned in such a way that there was never a real threat they were going to get the hand off out of the backfield. It's gotten to the point where the fullback has morphed with the tight end position.

Now teams have taken offenses like the aforementioned Wing T and have customized it for todays game. You have replaced the fullback trap with QB trap, you have replaced FB power with QB power, you have replaced Belly with QB Belly, and Buck sweep with Pin and Pull. You have replaced wishbone Triple option with RPOs, Zone Read, and Power read. There is only so many ways you can stretch a defense. unless the field gets wider, or you add or subtract players the confines of the game are the same.

Some coach will start working two backs into the backfield at some point, he will start giving the ball equally to both backs and he will be heralded as an inventor when in reality he is just a thief. In football their is nothing wrong with being a thief, its how the game works.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Nice post, Nutz. I must admit, I ain’t got a fucking clue what “Belly”, “Buck Sweep” and “Pin and Pull” pertain to.

I’m somewhat surprised that with the RB positions becoming less and less valuable as the years roll by, the “Pistol Force” offense - 0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR formation - ain’t currently the fab.

[The Shadow]

And : some players, like Kris Jenkins & Frank Gore Jr., keep magically appearing in likely Pack drafting spots.

[KYPack]

Nice post, Nutz. I must admit, I ain’t got a fucking clue what “Belly”, “Buck Sweep” and “Pin and Pull” pertain to.

I’m somewhat surprised that with the RB positions becoming less and less valuable as the years roll by, the “Pistol Force” offense - 0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR formation - ain’t currently the fab.

Trying to lie your way in thru the back door, eh Tank?

Forces have nothing to do with offensive schemes.

They are responsibilities on defense.

BC you never played, you don't know that.

[The Shadow]

In trying to assemble likely Gutey picks from the PFF draft sim, I am paying a lot of attention to the ages of the prospects - and wondering how much weight he places on that factor. I don't see him picking the 23+ & 24 year old guys.

[Joemailman]

In trying to assemble likely Gutey picks from the PFF draft sim, I am paying a lot of attention to the ages of the prospects - and wondering how much weight he places on that factor. I don't see him picking the 23+ & 24 year old guys.

I believe he generally doesn't although Devonte Wyatt was a notable exception.

[run pMc]

You also had the advent of the West Coast offense which changed how the game of football was played, especially in the NFL. You still had two back sets and the fullback was still primarily utilized as a blocker, but they had to catch the ball out of the backfield just as well if not better than your featured back. Then as the West Coast offense began to meld with the Air Raid, fullbacks became H-backs or Y-off players. they aligned in such a way that there was never a real threat they were going to get the hand off out of the backfield. It's gotten to the point where the fullback has morphed with the tight end position.

KUUUUHHHHNN

Or Henderson.

I always enjoyed how the 49ers used Tom Rathman, that dude could run block and catch. Just a swiss army knife kind of guy.

Good post Nuts.

[Fritz]

Run's post:

KUUUUHHHHNN

Or Henderson.

I always enjoyed how the 49ers used Tom Rathman, that dude could run block and catch. Just a swiss army knife kind of guy.

Good post Nuts.[/QUOTE]

Yes, it's like taking a master class. I especially appreciate it because while I followed the game through the evolution of the West Coast offense, I lost the same level of interest and so did not understand what happened to fullbacks - until I read Nutzy's post. The last several posts of this thread, mebbe outside of Tank's, have all been good - educational for me, thoughtful. This is Packerrats at its best.

So how can I fuck this up?

[run pMc]

NIL and COVID year eligibilty is giving players the chance to play 5 or 6 years and get paid. Until the COVID eligibility unwinds completely you'll see more 23 year old rookies.
The NIL is interesting as well, since it often means players stay in school an extra year or even two.

I still think CFB is a mess right now, and would be very skeptical of 23 year olds who suddenly have great senior years.
Why wouldn't they? They're grown men playing against 19 and 20 year olds!

If given the choice, Gute will lean younger, but I don't think he's going to remove a player from the board if age is the only issue. As mentioned previously, Wyatt was old AND had a red flag for a domestic, and they still took him.

If you assume they hit their physical peak at 26 or 27, you have a potentially longer upside with a 21 year old rookie than a 24 year old. That's what makes guys like LVN interesting, and why Kenny Clark has been in the league forever.

[texaspackerbacker]

I've never liked I formation, and I've never liked using fullbacks. Yeah, I also think somebody is gonna go back to split backs, and it will be seen as a great innovation, and it will work, maybe even better than it did back in the day because so many teams' Ds are geared to stop the increased passing game. Kind of a back door to split backs, though, and maybe even a better way to go is using a lot of WR runs - Jayden Reed or whoever in the case of the Packers.

We ought to have both things in the arsenal. Jones and Dillon as split backs would work, but not as good IMO as Jones and somebody faster and shiftier. I'm hoping to get that in about the 3rd round (give or take one round). And I'm still thinking Braelon Allen might be that guy. If age is a concern, he's what? 20 now?

[Joemailman]

Didn't Joe Gibbs create the H-back position to be in a better position to block Lawrence Taylor?

[Deputy Nutz]

Didn't Joe Gibbs create the H-back position to be in a better position to block Lawrence Taylor?

yes in a way, move the FB up and over to try and stall the pass rush soon rather than having Taylor destroy a FB/HB 4 yards behind the LOS.

The Y-off has become popular even more popular than using an in line TE. You get the best of both worlds now whether its in the passing game, zone scheme, or gap scheme. They can pull across the formation for a split zone scheme, zone insert scheme, and in gap schemes like GY/GH counter. The flexibility with the Y-off could be considered a small evolution in offensive football.