Reflections on Gooter

[bobblehead]

Who takes the fall ? Gutebag for not getting him a veteran who would know football ehought to run the right routes...aka...a security blanket....the coaching for the players perhaps not being ready, or the Love machine for lacking accuracy ?

I don't want anyone to take the fall yet. We went all in for several seasons and being young and doing things poorly in 2023 is a result. I don't want enough veteran talent to win 9 games and pick 18th unless its enough to win an owl (which it can't be with this roster). If we don't improve over the season and if we are still bad midway through next season then heads have to roll. Then you have to look at all of it, as right now there is blame to go around (except Gutes who ceded to fan demand to "go all in"). He isn't responsible unless we just see a lack of ascension from the picks. Personally I have pretty high hopes for this team in a year. If we come up short I would say it will be because Love fails. Right now, his failures have a lot to do with many factors. The only one I don't see improving much is his lack of accuracy downfield.

[bobblehead]

I mean the dudes are year two players. I think for the one dude he's third year even. I don't personally put a lot of stock in that - they had a whole year already. By year two of something, you are ramped up pretty well in the process.

They have a QB and coach that should be on their ass if they don't know their stuff. It isn't that hard.

I was going to cut and paste a few stats from guys like Adams who couldn't break 500 yards through 2 seasons. Or Jordy who failed to reach 400 through 2 seasons. Or nearly any TE in history who couldn't get to 600 yards through 2 seasons. Or how awesome Mike Wahle or TJ Lang were as rooks. Or remind people of how things looked when Marshal Newhouse was forced into action due to injury.

Cutting and pasting doesn't work very well here, but you get the point. But for reference Watson had 600 and 7 scores as a rookie. Better than all in recent history other than Jennings who was similar as a rookie and broke out in year 2. For reference Tom looked better as a rookie than anyone I can recall except maybe Jenkins. He still should be a guard, but I digress.

[texaspackerbacker]

I pretty much agree with bobblehead. This poll is basically asking how bad you think it’s gonna be.There’s a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the offense (although those receiver comparisons have a lot to do with who else played the position at the time).

I say again, the problem pure and simple is Joe Barry. The only way either LaFleur or Gutekunst are gone is if they hang on too long to that piece of crap.

[run pMc]

I think most people thought this year would be rocky; are people surprised? I'm disgusted by some of the bad/ugly play execution (and some play calls), but I'm not surprised. Development/improvement of young players is not a linear thing.
This is a pretty low point for the team.
I think GB has better talent than LV or DEN and they lost to both.

If this team is garbage this year but grows into a perennial playoff contender in 2024 and beyond, does this year matter that much? The 2005 season was a tire fire, but it's easy to forget given the stretch that followed.

There are definitely things they can do this year to get better - the coaches and the players.
I don't think a lot of this is on Gute tbh, they tried to keep the Rodgers teams together as long as possible and this is the take-your-medicine year. They still have talent and will have some decent draft capital to continue to build (and hopefully a little more cap space).

There is no mid-season answer to their problems outside the building.

[Fritz]

I'm trying to imagine what I thought a 2 - 4 record would look like at this point. I think I was hoping for the defense to hold up and keep other teams at twenty or under - which they have, four of the six games. Yet I'm still disappointed in the defense - as Rasul Douglas has pointed out, if your defense is handed a lead and can't hold it, it doesn't matter that you held the other team to X points - you didn't hold the lead. So why am I disappointed? Because they don't seem to tackle well? Because they don't seem physical and tough? Heck, I don't know. Twenty points and under four games so far? On paper, not bad - though of course those were mostly shitty teams...

Offensively, I thought they'd look sloppy but show flashes. Have they done that? Have there been flashes? I'm a little nervous about Love's lack of accuracy - probably my biggest concern with the offense right now. The youngsters are making lots of mistakes, but they receivers and tight ends will get better at route running and blocking. Maybe Rasheed Walker will even develop? Maybe Tom will get better too as he settles in more? But Runyan and Myer have been pretty piss poor, and even Elgton Jenkins isn't looking as good as his contract. Don't know if playing hurt is part of that.

So I thought I was okay with a rough year, but maybe I'm not? I'm not sure how what I'm seeing is much different than what I thought I'd see, yet I'm still concerned. Hell, I don't know.

[MadScientist]

I pretty much agree with bobblehead. This poll is basically asking how bad you think it’s gonna be.There’s a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the offense (although those receiver comparisons have a lot to do with who else played the position at the time).

I say again, the problem pure and simple is Joe Barry. The only way either LaFleur or Gutekunst are gone is if they hang on too long to that piece of crap.

I'm not going to sing the defense's praises, but looking at the scoreboard, it's the offense that has been shitting the bed for the Packers. The strange thing is that they generally look decent coming out for the second half. It's the complete failure in the first half that is sinking them. The OC/MLF are not getting them prepared for the game. They should definitely be feeling the heat right now.

[call_me_ishmael]

Man, the Packers drafts from 2013 on are just total shit. It is a miracle they contended three years and really a testament to how good Adams and Rodgers were. They got by on star power by having the top 2-3 guys at important spots, and absolutely nailing the FA picks in Z, Prestone and Safety and Utility OL dude.

They don’t have anybody from 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, Alexander from 2018, Gary will be the only 2019 left after next year, and Love will be the only 2020 guy to get an extension. Just pure shit across the board.

[bobblehead]

Man, the Packers drafts from 2013 on are just total shit. It is a miracle they contended three years and really a testament to how good Adams and Rodgers were. They got by on star power by having the top 2-3 guys at important spots, and absolutely nailing the FA picks in Z, Prestone and Safety and Utility OL dude.

They don’t have anybody from 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, Alexander from 2018, Gary will be the only 2019 left after next year, and Love will be the only 2020 guy to get an extension. Just pure shit across the board.

I'm guessing you're just forgetting Jenkins and not being dishonest. Also I think Savage may be back on a modest deal more fitting of his talent. 2014 would be a descending player based on age, and those were all the last drafts of Thompson when clearly he wasn't right. We drafted a lot of "contributors" when we were in win now mode. And its fair to say Gutes got off to a rocky start with his picks. Its also very possible Runyan will be back for the right price.

I'll add in that if you criticize Gutes for drafts you have to credit him for finding Douglas, Ford, and Campbell. The big critiques should come for his continuing the GB trend in the 3rd. Man what a bunch of turds. Next year will tell a lot. Will the young guys ascend or not. Quay and Watson have flashed big time potential. Enagbare looks like a 5th round steal. Doubs and Tom just need consistency. Stokes needs health.

Our roster looks like a team that went all in and failed. That will lead to the situation you describe where some guys like MVS were priced out. The all pro LT can't stay on the field. The aging stars have finally moved on.

[Bretsky]

I"m not convinced signing Campbell to that contract was the right move as of yet. Big credit for Douglas.

[Fritz]

After that great first year, Campbell does seem to have become more of a JAG. But maybe he does things, little things, that I can't see. I don't know.

Nobody's mentioned Mark Murphy. HE'S the guy who let Ted hang on about two years too long. A tough call to make, but I still think Ted would've been secretly happy to just be a scout those last couple of years. And making tough calls is why Murphy gets the big bucks.

Then there's his crazy silo stuff - still not sure that's working great. I suppose we'll see. But I'm not a big Murphy fan.

[Bretsky]

I'm guessing you're just forgetting Jenkins and not being dishonest. Also I think Savage may be back on a modest deal more fitting of his talent. 2014 would be a descending player based on age, and those were all the last drafts of Thompson when clearly he wasn't right. We drafted a lot of "contributors" when we were in win now mode. And its fair to say Gutes got off to a rocky start with his picks. Its also very possible Runyan will be back for the right price.

I'll add in that if you criticize Gutes for drafts you have to credit him for finding Douglas, Ford, and Campbell. The big critiques should come for his continuing the GB trend in the 3rd. Man what a bunch of turds. Next year will tell a lot. Will the young guys ascend or not. Quay and Watson have flashed big time potential. Enagbare looks like a 5th round steal. Doubs and Tom just need consistency. Stokes needs health.

Our roster looks like a team that went all in and failed. That will lead to the situation you describe where some guys like MVS were priced out. The all pro LT can't stay on the field. The aging stars have finally moved on.

To be fair at this point you can't conider Savage a good "1st" round draft pick. He seems like a marginal starter at best which is not what you look for that high.

A very interesting question...would be............WHO HAS REALLY IMPROVED THE LAST FEW YEARS ???....well...besides Rashan Gary

Serious questions about this coaching staff

[King Friday]

Yeah, the coaching staff probably should endure more blame over current roster issues. Since MLF showed up, there has been precious little improvement among any young players. A couple rookies have looked good to start with, but really haven’t taken another step forward.

[bobblehead]

To be fair at this point you can't conider Savage a good "1st" round draft pick. He seems like a marginal starter at best which is not what you look for that high.

A very interesting question...would be............WHO HAS REALLY IMPROVED THE LAST FEW YEARS ???....well...besides Rashan Gary

Serious questions about this coaching staff

I'm president of the hate savage club, but before injury he wasn't the weak spot on the D. He was a "bad starter". If he can play like he started this year he will be Darren College. Start for 10 years and piss fans off the entire time.

[run pMc]

I think Gute is a good assembler of athletic talent. I'm not sure how good he is at team building to a scheme.
One thing that keeps dogging at me: how many players have they drafted that have had good rookie seasons and then bad year 2/3?

I might be misremembering but off the top of my head I can think of Royce Newman, AJ Dillon, JRJ, (probably)Christian Watson, Savage, Stokes, maybe even Zach Tom. Point is, I'm not sure that once these guys get in the system, they get good coaching or development. That's on the coaches (and to an extent the players).

For a draft and develop team, the 'develop' part feels shakier than the 'draft' part to me.

[bobblehead]

I think Gute is a good assembler of athletic talent. I'm not sure how good he is at team building to a scheme.
One thing that keeps dogging at me: how many players have they drafted that have had good rookie seasons and then bad year 2/3?

I might be misremembering but off the top of my head I can think of Royce Newman, AJ Dillon, JRJ, (probably)Christian Watson, Savage, Stokes, maybe even Zach Tom. Point is, I'm not sure that once these guys get in the system, they get good coaching or development. That's on the coaches (and to an extent the players).

For a draft and develop team, the 'develop' part feels shakier than the 'draft' part to me.

Some of what you describe is that guys were put in better situations. I won't address all of it, but lets just look at this. Dillon was running behind a healthier better line and playing while ahead in games. Newman was next to a veteran C and T iirc. JRJ was on the other side next to an even better T. Savage was playing with WORSE dbs and wasn't exposed as often.

I'll say it again. Symbiotic. When/IF they all start improving the difference will be stark. I'm mainly blaming the offensive woes on the OL, same as early last year. This staffs decision to go with Walker over Nijman is hurting the entire offense. But the fact they were forced to choose because of Bak is the root problem. Just imagine if Bak were healthy and we lined up Bak, Jenkins, Tom, JRJ, Yosh. I think the product on the field would be a world different. They need to draft one of the top tackles early next year. And honestly they will then probably need one more guy if they insist on letting Yosh walk. When that happens the entire offense improves, and the improvement of each tacks on to itself. Run better, pass better and vice versa. 1 more second for a route to develop and suddenly the WRs all get a bit more separation. Rookie TEs learn to play instead of think. If we inject just one bookend LT next season this team might not resemble anything close to what you see right now. Or it could go a completely different direction.....can't say for certain.

[Fritz]

Of course, even if they draft a couple of tackles and a center or guard or both, you'll have rookies who need to develop on the line, so they won't be all that great...
Looks like a longer rebuild than maybe we thought.

[run pMc]

Agree bobble, I think OL is the source of many of their problems on offense. They should have an opportunity to add a quality LT and that would settle a few things. They might also have more cap space to sign a C or G, and they can draft/develop another. There's a slim chance Bakhtiari comes back healthy and plays, but honestly I think he's done unless he agrees to redo his contract (and I don't think he will). The WR's inability to separate is a concern, but I think it can be learned with time.

I could easily see them go with a QB over a LT if they are drafting high enough, I'm not sure they will though. There are a LOT of bad teams who will need a QB.

I still think they are (at the moment) better at drafting than at developing who they draft.

[MadScientist]

I think Gute is a good assembler of athletic talent. I'm not sure how good he is at team building to a scheme.
One thing that keeps dogging at me: how many players have they drafted that have had good rookie seasons and then bad year 2/3?

I might be misremembering but off the top of my head I can think of Royce Newman, AJ Dillon, JRJ, (probably)Christian Watson, Savage, Stokes, maybe even Zach Tom. Point is, I'm not sure that once these guys get in the system, they get good coaching or development. That's on the coaches (and to an extent the players).

For a draft and develop team, the 'develop' part feels shakier than the 'draft' part to me.

I'm not so sure he's all that good at assembling talent. His 2019 draft was decent, but 2020 and 2021 were not good. The jury is still out on 22 and 23, but most of the 22 draft seems to be taking a step back, so not looking great for that year either. He did ok in FA, when there was cap space, but you can't really build a team in FA. I would agree that the develop part of draft and develop isn't looking good, but I don't think the draft part is all that good either. Clean house, restart, and try not to spend a decade at the bottom. Get some people from successful organizations that are ready for promotion, because an outside perspective is needed.

[bobblehead]

Of course, even if they draft a couple of tackles and a center or guard or both, you'll have rookies who need to develop on the line, so they won't be all that great...
Looks like a longer rebuild than maybe we thought.

Some positions take longer to be effective. Usually the higher pick OL are ready on day 1, as are RBs and good instinctive LBs. Others take a minute like later drafted OL/DL that need strength, TEs that need to learn multiple responsibilities.

[bobblehead]

Should we reflect more on Gutes? I have ridden the roller coaster and I consistently say the proof is in the results. Right now his last couple drafts look really fucking good. The moral of the story is trade down, not up. He has killed it by trading down. He has crushed the 4th round since he stopped trading all our 4ths.

Its going to be a hell of a finish to this season. Its been emotionally draining. I started out hating Gutes, then liking him, then saying his draft picks aren't performing to where we are now. In a post above I said its symbiotic. Everyone is improving incrementally and the overall improvement is pretty big. Can they keep it up? You can't luck into beating two really good teams with really good records back to back...but you can't be as good as we have looked with that awful stretch on tape.

Heres to riding it out til the end.