GREAT ARTICLE; DIDN"T KNOW ABOUT ALL OF THIS

That leaves the ugly David Bakhtiari contract situation. He is set to earn $21.5 million cash in the final year of his contract, but his initial signing bonus and three straight years of cap restructuring have now piled up into 2024 creating a whopping $40 million cap hit -- by far the largest on the roster, $12.5 million ahead of second place.

Important to note: Bakhtiari has intentionally not allowed the Packers to use void years in his restructures the past three seasons in to have full leverage of his future in the final year of his deal as the Packers now cannot lower his 2024 cap hit (outside of cutting, trading, or retirement) without David's cooperation. There is zero chance Bakhtiari will play in Green Bay on his current contract as written and the Packers have a big decision to make with their former All-Pro left tackle. No doubt, when healthy and available, Bakhtiari is still one of the best in the business, but of course his health and availability have been wildly unpredictable the past three years. If Bakhtiari himself doesn't want to stay in Green Bay or doesn't like the Packers' offer he can just refuse a restructure and force the Packers to either risk paying him $21.5 million to play and stay healthy at a $40 million cap hit, be outright released for no compensation, or risk carrying his contract into 2024 in a complex trade landscape -- none of these are great options.


Let's start with what cannot change -- there is $19.1 million of dead cap which 100% will count on the 2024 Green Bay salary cap before Bakhtiari gets a penny of contract cash in 2024. This hit cannot move out of 2024 for any reason and is comprised of past seasons' cap-kicking now coming due. It's safe to predict that once all the team's offseason moves are complete David Bakhtiari will still own the highest 2024 cap hit for the Packers -- even if he is no longer on the roster. If the Packers want to keep Bakhtiari it would have to be at a significant pay cut and restructure from his current $21.5 million cash due, but how much is Bakhtiari willing to agree to play for, in Green Bay? If Bakhtiari is willing to take a deep ten-figure pay cut and add more into at-risk incentives and per-game bonuses, then maybe he returns for 2024.


Technically an extension could happen, but I don't see a world where the Packers commit any more money unless they are 5000% certain his medical issues are behind him. If the Packers release Bakhtiari before the start of the 2024 season in March, they would gain $20.9 million of cap savings from his contract as a starting point. If he does not pass a physical before getting released, the Packers would have to pay him at least $2.05 million of his 2024 salary, of which $1.23 million would count on the 2024 salary cap as injury protection benefit. There is a fringe legal case where Bakhtiari could file an injury grievance over his entire 2024 salary, but I won't dive into that here. However, if Bakhtiari is on the Packers roster after the start of the 2024 league year and later released this grievance scenario becomes much more possible and poses a significant cap risk for the Packers. In other words,

I strongly feel the Packers need decide on David Bakhtiari before March 13th and not allow his "as-is" contract to hit the books for 2024. The Packers could seek to trade Bakhtiari but comes with complications. The new team would have to clear him medically after his multiple 2023 knee surgeries and be willing to give up draft picks for his $21.5 million contract. Also, trades cannot happen until after March 13th so the Packers would have to carry his contract into the 2024 season which is risky (see above) all while being cap compliant with his $40 million deal still on the books. I doubt Bakhtiari would agree to lower his salary to aid a trade unless he controls where he will go. The worst case would be agreeing to a trade, having the new team fail his medicals, then landing back with the Packers scrambling for a way forward. I tend to believe the Packers can no longer afford to take a "wait and see" approach and a hard decision needs to be made here before March 13th resulting in an outright release.