Packers Offseason/Free Agency Thread

[RashanGary]

Good article

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/lis...024-offseason/

I wonder how much Ted Thompson Gute will show now that Rodgers is gone. If Ted had a position of need and no player dropped to him in the draft, he’d count on his scouts to dumpster dive and find something worth keeping. This was incredibly frustrating to fans who really focus on the “right now” aspect and don’t consider the possibility of getting lucky in the dumpster dive.

Gute could go full ted and patch the safety position together with whatever he can find at the local thrift store.

[Joemailman]

I wonder how much Ted Thompson Gute will show now that Rodgers is gone. If Ted had a position of need and no player dropped to him in the draft, he’d count on his scouts to dumpster dive and find something worth keeping. This was incredibly frustrating to fans who really focus on the “right now” aspect and don’t consider the possibility of getting lucky in the dumpster dive.

Gute could go full ted and patch the safety position together with whatever he can find at the local thrift store.

Gute's been a pretty good bargain hunter. De'vondre Campbell was a late signing, Rudy Ford, Keisean Nixon, Rasul Douglas and Bo Melton off practice squads. He'll need to do it again as they won't have a lot of cap room. Actually Gute does this more than Ted. Ted was more likely to just rely on UDFA's.

[NewsBruin]

I think the expanded practice rosters (16 domestic + 1 international development next season) mean a different kind of scouting is needed. I'm not sure what or how, but now the best 496 players not on an active roster are on someone else's practice squad.

[Bretsky]

GREAT ARTICLE; DIDN"T KNOW ABOUT ALL OF THIS

That leaves the ugly David Bakhtiari contract situation. He is set to earn $21.5 million cash in the final year of his contract, but his initial signing bonus and three straight years of cap restructuring have now piled up into 2024 creating a whopping $40 million cap hit -- by far the largest on the roster, $12.5 million ahead of second place.

Important to note: Bakhtiari has intentionally not allowed the Packers to use void years in his restructures the past three seasons in to have full leverage of his future in the final year of his deal as the Packers now cannot lower his 2024 cap hit (outside of cutting, trading, or retirement) without David's cooperation. There is zero chance Bakhtiari will play in Green Bay on his current contract as written and the Packers have a big decision to make with their former All-Pro left tackle. No doubt, when healthy and available, Bakhtiari is still one of the best in the business, but of course his health and availability have been wildly unpredictable the past three years. If Bakhtiari himself doesn't want to stay in Green Bay or doesn't like the Packers' offer he can just refuse a restructure and force the Packers to either risk paying him $21.5 million to play and stay healthy at a $40 million cap hit, be outright released for no compensation, or risk carrying his contract into 2024 in a complex trade landscape -- none of these are great options.


Let's start with what cannot change -- there is $19.1 million of dead cap which 100% will count on the 2024 Green Bay salary cap before Bakhtiari gets a penny of contract cash in 2024. This hit cannot move out of 2024 for any reason and is comprised of past seasons' cap-kicking now coming due. It's safe to predict that once all the team's offseason moves are complete David Bakhtiari will still own the highest 2024 cap hit for the Packers -- even if he is no longer on the roster. If the Packers want to keep Bakhtiari it would have to be at a significant pay cut and restructure from his current $21.5 million cash due, but how much is Bakhtiari willing to agree to play for, in Green Bay? If Bakhtiari is willing to take a deep ten-figure pay cut and add more into at-risk incentives and per-game bonuses, then maybe he returns for 2024.


Technically an extension could happen, but I don't see a world where the Packers commit any more money unless they are 5000% certain his medical issues are behind him. If the Packers release Bakhtiari before the start of the 2024 season in March, they would gain $20.9 million of cap savings from his contract as a starting point. If he does not pass a physical before getting released, the Packers would have to pay him at least $2.05 million of his 2024 salary, of which $1.23 million would count on the 2024 salary cap as injury protection benefit. There is a fringe legal case where Bakhtiari could file an injury grievance over his entire 2024 salary, but I won't dive into that here. However, if Bakhtiari is on the Packers roster after the start of the 2024 league year and later released this grievance scenario becomes much more possible and poses a significant cap risk for the Packers. In other words,

I strongly feel the Packers need decide on David Bakhtiari before March 13th and not allow his "as-is" contract to hit the books for 2024. The Packers could seek to trade Bakhtiari but comes with complications. The new team would have to clear him medically after his multiple 2023 knee surgeries and be willing to give up draft picks for his $21.5 million contract. Also, trades cannot happen until after March 13th so the Packers would have to carry his contract into the 2024 season which is risky (see above) all while being cap compliant with his $40 million deal still on the books. I doubt Bakhtiari would agree to lower his salary to aid a trade unless he controls where he will go. The worst case would be agreeing to a trade, having the new team fail his medicals, then landing back with the Packers scrambling for a way forward. I tend to believe the Packers can no longer afford to take a "wait and see" approach and a hard decision needs to be made here before March 13th resulting in an outright release.

[Fritz]

Can you watch other teams' practice squad players, or just in pre-season and what you get in training camp film?

I'm guessing Guter's going to pull from the Ron Wolf/Ted Thompson draft strategy: draft a few guys at a position of need and hope at least one works out. Hell, during the rise of Randy Moss, Wolf once drafted defensive backs with his first three picks in a row. Only the third-round guy, Mike Mckenzie, really worked out. If I recall, his first round guy was a safety who did not like to hit, and his second round guy was traded to Seattle (his first name was Fred, I think) for some fumble-prone running back named Ahman something-or-other...

[Joemailman]

A little less drama this year.

Rob Demovsky
@RobDemovsky

Packers GM Brian Gutekunst will hold his season wrap-up press conference on Thursday at noon.

[Arctic Fox]

How long untill we get a new DC?

[Joemailman]

How long untill we get a new DC?

Could be late this week. Unless MLF has Chiefs or 49ers coaches in mind. I doubt that though.

[RashanGary]

Could be late this week. Unless MLF has Chiefs or 49ers coaches in mind. I doubt that though.

I follow all the media on Twitter and I genuinely think you have your finger on the pulse of 1265 more than the beat guys do. It’ll probably happen late this week. I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t.

[Fritz]

Could be late this week. Unless MLF has Chiefs or 49ers coaches in mind. I doubt that though.

Please God don't let it be Brandon Staley. That'd be the same M.O. as the Joe Barely hire.

Any of the others in the running, anyone but Staley. Please, Flower. Don't make the "safe" hire of the guy you know. You do that, then you could've just kept Joe Barely.

[Joemailman]

Please God don't let it be Brandon Staley. That'd be the same M.O. as the Joe Barely hire.

Any of the others in the running, anyone but Staley. Please, Flower. Don't make the "safe" hire of the guy you know. You do that, then you could've just kept Joe Barely.

He's never coached with Staley. The guy he knows is Christian Parker. Should he stay away from him?

[Fritz]

Uh . . . . yes?

You're asking an awful lot of me here, Joe. Trying to get me to be consistent and all.

As for the free agents, I'd like to see them try to keep Nixon. He's got value both as a returner and as at least a backup slot. He's not too bad out there. At least he's not afraid to tackle.

I know Dillon is beloved in Door County and all, but I just don't see the value of keeping him.

[run pMc]

Gute could go full ted and patch the safety position together with whatever he can find at the local thrift store.

pretty sure he did that this season. The 5th year on Savage was exercised the year prior and probably regretted it. They had to work around that 8M albatross with castoffs like Ford and Owens.

[Joemailman]

pretty sure he did that this season. The 5th year on Savage was exercised the year prior and probably regretted it. They had to work around that 8M albatross with castoffs like Ford and Owens.

Before he got hurt I thought Ford was playing the best of all the Packers safeties. And I think the Packers originally signed him because he was a ST stud. So I think they'll try to bring him back. And Anthony Johnson Jr. will be back. The rest I don't much care about. Safety is a position where I expect Gute might be looking in FA.

[Frozen Tundra]

Before he got hurt I thought Ford was playing the best of all the Packers safeties. And I think the Packers originally signed him because he was a ST stud. So I think they'll try to bring him back. And Anthony Johnson Jr. will be back. The rest I don't much care about. Safety is a position where I expect Gute might be looking in FA.

With our cap space, I question whether we'll be able to afford any significant safety upgrade with our cap issues. We still have a ton of dead money, and a Top 7 or 8 quarterback to extend. But if Gute sounds confident, it makes me wonder if he has more cuts or restructures in mind than some of us are thinking.

[australianpackerbacker]

I think this team would do well in focussing on defense, defense and more defense in response to the needs of this team.

On offense we have a feeding frenzy at wr and te looks good with kraft and Musgrave just reps reps and more reps...

The offensive line is in my world the most misunderstood because these guys had Love running for his life and he honestly looked like tarvaris Jackson God rest his soul, at times. Elgton is the only name and Myers has never really developed like I hoped linsley and even EDS did, at the moment it's not a position of strength and consistency but it seems like the talent might be in house for at least 3 spots..

Kenny Clark leaving would suck. He's a poor man's Chris Jones but he's our poor man and if you got nothing better give him an honest reflection of his worth and then let him make a decision..

Devondre Campbell has not been worth the investment in some ways and I wouldn't be surprised he's gone. Preston too, he's been great but I think LVN gotta play more and establish himself..more talent outside that can make an impact immediately is the most essential thing for this team..

Secondary just need a good safety and savage has been inconsistent so I don't think he returns unless circumstance.

[australianpackerbacker]

Carlson actually annoys me a lot. His brother is good. But nobody remembers Jordan Rodgers

[Joemailman]

Carlson actually annoys me a lot. His brother is good. But nobody remembers Jordan Rodgers

His brother though also had some issues early in his career before finding his way. Got cut by Minnesota and Oakland before excelling with the Raiders. Packers will give him a chance to turn this around.

[Fritz]

His brother though also had some issues early in his career before finding his way. Got cut by Minnesota and Oakland before excelling with the Raiders. Packers will give him a chance to turn this around.

To his credit, the kid did come back from his misses. That's a sign of resiliency.

I don't follow the money side of the NFL very well, so I have no idea if any of the top free agent safeties would be affordable to the still-cash-strapped Packers, and I don't know if any of them have the skill set needed for either of the safety positions the Packers now will feature.

Anyone out there with more knowledge care to comment?

[run pMc]

To his credit, the kid did come back from his misses. That's a sign of resiliency.

I don't follow the money side of the NFL very well, so I have no idea if any of the top free agent safeties would be affordable to the still-cash-strapped Packers, and I don't know if any of them have the skill set needed for either of the safety positions the Packers now will feature.

Anyone out there with more knowledge care to comment?

The new prevailing wisdom is supposedly that you don't pay a lot for a safety. SEA has been trying to get out of the Jamal Adams deal for a while, NYJ was happy to. There aren't many who are transcendantly good.
A few will get paid (Winfield), and a guy like Geno Stone will get offers but I don't it will be bank breaking.

I think one of Ford or Savage will be back unless they want to start over. Given Ford turns 30 this Nov they might decide on that. I expect Gute to go heavy in the draft at Safety, OL and RB. Hafley's defense will ask different things from its safeties, and GB didn't field a great group last year anyway.