Hmm... there is a certain logic to that idea, isn't there? He seems to be rather good at it...Originally Posted by Fritz
But I don't know if we could make that work in 25. We might be able to sign him to a one-year deal this year, but I doubt he'd take another one the following season, because at his age I think he'd insist on several years' worth of security in 25.
Not sure what your thinking is on that, or for that matter how you feel about letting Dillon walk already this spring. How that falls together would obviously have a huge impact on our approach to drafting running backs this year. I really don't know what to expect about what Dillon does this year, so my whole concept of how to stock the RB shelf this off-season is multifaceted and complicated.
That is exactly my favorite plan, too, but I was hesitant to stick my neck out. Been away from this board a long time, felt reluctant to kick the door down and barge through it shouting out brash opinions.
Plus, I'm just not sure how realistic it would be to expect Gute to do that anyway. My idea would be one of the top half-dozen on Day 2 (probably early; first 3rd Rounder or even the 2nd 2nd Rounder), and one of the 2nd tier backs on Day 3 (probably early, Rd 4 or early 5 if we have one), and then see what we have as the pre-season and season develop. I just don't know if Gutekunst is brilliant enough to understand the wisdom of my insights.
My concern is this.... this offense absolutely depends on a powerful running game in order to open up all the options MLF wants to have at his disposal. If we don't have that, we're leaving 30% or more of the playbook in the locker room, because we don't have the tools we need to put it on the field. Our running game is the key to the entire thing. I'm confident that even if we don't do a thing about running back we'll be OK this year as long as we sign Dillon and Jones stays healthy, but I'm not completely confident he will stay healthy.
He's a pounding, hard-running workhorse back who'll be 30 years old this season, and I worked out that in the last 10 years, he has been tackled approximately 1800 times (college and pros, pre-season and playoffs). There comes a point in the late 20s where the body just can't take the beating anymore, or recover sufficiently between Sundays. Most RBs begin to decline significantly at around age 28, and when it happens, it's a very steady process, and there's no fixing it. It's just over.
I did a breakdown of roughly the top 25 RBs in the NFL (I know, there isn't a precise way to define that, but I like my list), and of those 25, Derrick Henry is the only one older than Jones (by 11 months). That man is a freak. But the point is, Jones is playing with house money, and if the Packers are counting on him playing anywhere close to this level through 2025, they're foolish. He may - it's possible - but it would be foolish to expect it and plan around that expectation. Statistically, it's extremely unlikely, and the consequences of being wrong are grave when a powerhouse team is building for a Super Bowl run in every single other category.
If ever there would be a circumstance where it would be reasonable to overspend draft capital on a position, I think this would be an example. It's far wiser for a team in our position to go heavy on RB a year too early than having to do it a year too late, because even a single year too late could literally cost us a Super Bowl more than almost any other positional weakness. And as we all know, you don't really get too many chances. I see 2025 as the prime year for our first best Lombardi run, and I think we should be doing everything we can for the next year and a half to line up all of our pieces for that run.
I just dread the possibility of going into the 2025 offseason needing to replace not just one, but both of our top two backs without our offense missing a beat. I think it's critical that we make that our top priority starting this offseason.
But, maybe I'm full of shit. Wouldn't be the first time. But I think that even if I am overstating this, it's not by a lot. I may be over-emphasizing the point, but even if I am I still think it's a solid point. I know a lot of people will disagree with me here, but that's not the first time I've had that happen. I'd be curious to know your thoughts on that whole line of reasoning.
I'm right there. I want to come out of this draft with depth on the O-line, and not just bodies - linemen who can not only fill in for a couple-few weeks if needed, but push the starters at (honestly) every position. Make 'em all fight for their jobs. And especially interior linemen; I'd be thrilled if we can replace Myers at center.
But that's something I trust Gute to figure out on Day 3 and maybe even 3rd or 4th Round of Day Two. It's gotten to the point where I just take it for granted that he's going to add at least one and probably 2 quality OL to the roster; it's like he just sees a guy walking down the street and says, "look at the way that guy moves in space, I need to give him my card." I have a very strong feeling that they have some of the best OL scouts in the league on their staff, and that Luke Butkus is an O-line coach who is worth his weight in gold - and one of the handful of truly unsung heroes on our coaching staff.
So yeah, OL is a position of need at least for depth at the very least, but i trust Gutekunst and won't freak out if we go into Day 3 without having picked OL yet. He'll handle that.
But we do need to come away from this offeason with linebacker and safety help, and probably cornerback too. I think we can draft a couple of starters at those positions in the early to middle rounds, and will be disappointed if we haven't picked up at least a couple before Day 3. I'd like to see us go safety in the 1st if the right one is there; I'm hoping for DeJean Cooper. Ideally, I'd love to see safety in Rd 1 if the right player is there, and another safety and a linebacker in the 2nd and 3rd.
But, again - only if Gute feels the right value is there at those moments. I fully expect him to flip a couple-few of those early picks, trade back 8 or 10 spots to get a depth player he expects to be there in the 4th and still steal a bargain in the 2nd or 3rd. I completely expect that, because he looks at the board very differently than most other GMs, and I also trust him to make it work. And if we need to spend some free agent money on short term stopgaps at safety or even linebacker, I think that's the best place to spend our UFA dollars.
One thing I know for sure, he's going to do some things that we can not possibly predict. Not today, and not even 2 minutes before he does it. And I wouldn't have it any other way. It's his draft to run, and I trust him to know better than I do what needs to be done and how it needs to be done. I think he's earned that.
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