Gute presser

[Frozen Tundra]

If this were the case, wouldn't you just offer Dillon a contract to, well, be Dillon for one more year?

Hmm... there is a certain logic to that idea, isn't there? He seems to be rather good at it...

But I don't know if we could make that work in 25. We might be able to sign him to a one-year deal this year, but I doubt he'd take another one the following season, because at his age I think he'd insist on several years' worth of security in 25.

Not sure what your thinking is on that, or for that matter how you feel about letting Dillon walk already this spring. How that falls together would obviously have a huge impact on our approach to drafting running backs this year. I really don't know what to expect about what Dillon does this year, so my whole concept of how to stock the RB shelf this off-season is multifaceted and complicated.

My own opinion is that they ought to draft a couple of RB's, and let them back up Jones. I know, the pass blocking won't be the best for the first part of the season, but if they're smart they'll figure that out by mid-season.

That is exactly my favorite plan, too, but I was hesitant to stick my neck out. Been away from this board a long time, felt reluctant to kick the door down and barge through it shouting out brash opinions.

Plus, I'm just not sure how realistic it would be to expect Gute to do that anyway. My idea would be one of the top half-dozen on Day 2 (probably early; first 3rd Rounder or even the 2nd 2nd Rounder), and one of the 2nd tier backs on Day 3 (probably early, Rd 4 or early 5 if we have one), and then see what we have as the pre-season and season develop. I just don't know if Gutekunst is brilliant enough to understand the wisdom of my insights.

My concern is this.... this offense absolutely depends on a powerful running game in order to open up all the options MLF wants to have at his disposal. If we don't have that, we're leaving 30% or more of the playbook in the locker room, because we don't have the tools we need to put it on the field. Our running game is the key to the entire thing. I'm confident that even if we don't do a thing about running back we'll be OK this year as long as we sign Dillon and Jones stays healthy, but I'm not completely confident he will stay healthy.

He's a pounding, hard-running workhorse back who'll be 30 years old this season, and I worked out that in the last 10 years, he has been tackled approximately 1800 times (college and pros, pre-season and playoffs). There comes a point in the late 20s where the body just can't take the beating anymore, or recover sufficiently between Sundays. Most RBs begin to decline significantly at around age 28, and when it happens, it's a very steady process, and there's no fixing it. It's just over.

I did a breakdown of roughly the top 25 RBs in the NFL (I know, there isn't a precise way to define that, but I like my list), and of those 25, Derrick Henry is the only one older than Jones (by 11 months). That man is a freak. But the point is, Jones is playing with house money, and if the Packers are counting on him playing anywhere close to this level through 2025, they're foolish. He may - it's possible - but it would be foolish to expect it and plan around that expectation. Statistically, it's extremely unlikely, and the consequences of being wrong are grave when a powerhouse team is building for a Super Bowl run in every single other category.

If ever there would be a circumstance where it would be reasonable to overspend draft capital on a position, I think this would be an example. It's far wiser for a team in our position to go heavy on RB a year too early than having to do it a year too late, because even a single year too late could literally cost us a Super Bowl more than almost any other positional weakness. And as we all know, you don't really get too many chances. I see 2025 as the prime year for our first best Lombardi run, and I think we should be doing everything we can for the next year and a half to line up all of our pieces for that run.

I just dread the possibility of going into the 2025 offseason needing to replace not just one, but both of our top two backs without our offense missing a beat. I think it's critical that we make that our top priority starting this offseason.

But, maybe I'm full of shit. Wouldn't be the first time. But I think that even if I am overstating this, it's not by a lot. I may be over-emphasizing the point, but even if I am I still think it's a solid point. I know a lot of people will disagree with me here, but that's not the first time I've had that happen. I'd be curious to know your thoughts on that whole line of reasoning.

Any FA money is, to me, best spent on a safety or a linebacker to hold down the fort for a year while the rookies they're going to draft get up to speed. I think it's easier for a RB to learn to pass block in year one than for a safety or a linebacker to learn the defense in the first year; thus, for me, a FA, if you're going to do it, would be better to be a safety or a linebacker. Preferably a safety.

I'm right there. I want to come out of this draft with depth on the O-line, and not just bodies - linemen who can not only fill in for a couple-few weeks if needed, but push the starters at (honestly) every position. Make 'em all fight for their jobs. And especially interior linemen; I'd be thrilled if we can replace Myers at center.

But that's something I trust Gute to figure out on Day 3 and maybe even 3rd or 4th Round of Day Two. It's gotten to the point where I just take it for granted that he's going to add at least one and probably 2 quality OL to the roster; it's like he just sees a guy walking down the street and says, "look at the way that guy moves in space, I need to give him my card." I have a very strong feeling that they have some of the best OL scouts in the league on their staff, and that Luke Butkus is an O-line coach who is worth his weight in gold - and one of the handful of truly unsung heroes on our coaching staff.

So yeah, OL is a position of need at least for depth at the very least, but i trust Gutekunst and won't freak out if we go into Day 3 without having picked OL yet. He'll handle that.

But we do need to come away from this offeason with linebacker and safety help, and probably cornerback too. I think we can draft a couple of starters at those positions in the early to middle rounds, and will be disappointed if we haven't picked up at least a couple before Day 3. I'd like to see us go safety in the 1st if the right one is there; I'm hoping for DeJean Cooper. Ideally, I'd love to see safety in Rd 1 if the right player is there, and another safety and a linebacker in the 2nd and 3rd.

But, again - only if Gute feels the right value is there at those moments. I fully expect him to flip a couple-few of those early picks, trade back 8 or 10 spots to get a depth player he expects to be there in the 4th and still steal a bargain in the 2nd or 3rd. I completely expect that, because he looks at the board very differently than most other GMs, and I also trust him to make it work. And if we need to spend some free agent money on short term stopgaps at safety or even linebacker, I think that's the best place to spend our UFA dollars.

One thing I know for sure, he's going to do some things that we can not possibly predict. Not today, and not even 2 minutes before he does it. And I wouldn't have it any other way. It's his draft to run, and I trust him to know better than I do what needs to be done and how it needs to be done. I think he's earned that.

[bobblehead]

If this were the case, wouldn't you just offer Dillon a contract to, well, be Dillon for one more year?

My own opinion is that they ought to draft a couple of RB's, and let them back up Jones. I know, the pass blocking won't be the best for the first part of the season, but if they're smart they'll figure that out by mid-season.

Any FA money is, to me, best spent on a safety or a linebacker to hold down the fort for a year while the rookies they're going to draft get up to speed. I think it's easier for a RB to learn to pass block in year one than for a safety or a linebacker to learn the defense in the first year; thus, for me, a FA, if you're going to do it, would be better to be a safety or a linebacker. Preferably a safety.

Dillon is an FA RB that in fact could be signed to replace Dillon. You just don't pay him much.

[Frozen Tundra]

You all miss a simple point. Gutes doesn't have to pay a RB 12 million a season. There are solid backs out there who won't get paid too much. Guys like Myles Sanders or Devin Singletary. Give them a good OL and opportunities and they can produce. We can sign one and draft one and bring one in undrafted and likely have 3 good RB to pair with Jones.

In your scenario, is this running back replacing Dillon this season then? Because if that's your plan, this might be a good use of the free agent market. I don't think we can afford to replace Jones in free agency, but guys like you're talking about here would probably be upgrades over AJ and come in at the same general price point.

[bobblehead]

In your scenario, is this running back replacing Dillon this season then? Because if that's your plan, this might be a good use of the free agent market. I don't think we can afford to replace Jones in free agency, but guys like you're talking about here would probably be upgrades over AJ and come in at the same general price point.

Basically yes. And no, I don't EVER want to pay a RB FA like we paid Jones. Jones earned that money with the Packers as a person and as a player. The contract was partially for services already rendered.

[texaspackerbacker]

I'm hoping they do not go FA but draft somebody around the 3rd round. What we need to do to maximize Aaron Jones is to find somebody good enough to rotate with him and not have much drop off when he is not on the field. .

[run pMc]

I would not touch a RB before R3. I think they'll be looking at S, OL and maybe even a CB they can play in the slot before they take a RB. There isn't a Bijon in this draft, but there are Day 3 guys who can back up Jones.
Ray Davis, Jawhar Jordan, Marshawn Lloyd, hell maybe even Daijun Edwards. Trey Benson might be a nice get but he'll be Day 2. I would expect them to let Dillon and Taylor walk and draft 2 if not 3 RBs to compete with Wilson for spots.

Dillon is a great guy and he's not bad, but he's not a RB1 and there is no reason to bring him back if you're keeping Jones. It's like the Jones vs. Jamaal thing: you only need to keep one and bring in new guys. Having RBs on 4 year cheap deals is big for the cap, especially if they can play well.
Saquon would be a nice get in theory but he'll cost too much and he's had a ton of injuries. 2y/$22M? Pass.

The whole 'competition' thing isn't really new, but I think with what happened this year and the number of picks they will have I suspect there is a little more to it.
I would love to know if the comment is aimed at specific players (Rasheed, Rhyan) who had to platoon some... imagine giving Gute and the coaches truth serum and finding out know why the coaches did that and what they think of their roster now.

I don't expect them to be buyers in FA... not significant ones, anyway. They'll have to move money around as it is, and FA would force them to move even more, which Ball doesn't want to do. Understandibly. Love is gonna get paid in May.

[texaspackerbacker]

Glad to read you don't want to pay Saquon what he would cost. I'd say no to anywhere near what he would cost.

Dillon seems to have tried hard to be "Packer people". That's worth considering, but not to pay market value for him. A big back like him, cheap, wouldn't be bad, but sign him for the veteran minimum plus a nice gold key to Door County.

Glad you also agree RB about the 3rd. I like your list, but I'd add Braelon Allen probably at the top of the list. He has breakaway speed plus Dillon like power with some Aaron Jones shiftiness and tackle breaking too.

[RashanGary]

Detroit hard ass, GM Brad Holmes was on one at his end of year presser. Said the media want him to be accountable and then pointed his finger at a few of them and said, what about you? You said we should have taken a QB instead of Penai. What about you?

Kind of funny how it’s the medias job to make content. It doesn’t matter who they’re criticizing. Doesn’t matter what mob they’re riling up against a person. That’s their job. But when they create all this public scrutiny that threatens people’s jobs and they’re wrong, they don’t like when someone points back and says, know your role. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

Media want everyone accountable except themselves.

[ThunderDan]

Detroit hard ass, GM Brad Holmes was on one at his end of year presser. Said the media want him to be accountable and then pointed his finger at a few of them and said, what about you? You said we should have taken a QB instead of Penai. What about you?

Kind of funny how it’s the medias job to make content. It doesn’t matter who they’re criticizing. Doesn’t matter what mob they’re riling up against a person. That’s their job. But when they create all this public scrutiny that threatens people’s jobs and they’re wrong, they don’t like when someone points back and says, know your role. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

Media want everyone accountable except themselves.

Sorry, got to completely disagree with this.

"Media" as you define it creates content because you click on it or subscribe to it. If you stop watching the "media" and clicking on their articles, maybe we could have "media" that actually reports what is happening in the game and in the clubhouse.

But that isn't going to happen because so many people like to watch a trainwreck happen, real or imaginary. The "media" is what it is because of the collective "us".

[RashanGary]

I’m loving this new era where athletes and execs drag the media the same way the media drags them. That’s the equal ground we always should have been on.

[RashanGary]

Detroit really hired to appeal to that Detroit blue collar, prison population. The GM looks like the tough, wise prison leader at your local Detroit corner prison. And their coach is that guy who’s gonna put a little hot sauce on dudes ankle when he makes a tackle. Some real back against the wall, claw and fight in the streets mentality there in Detroit.

[texaspackerbacker]

RG, I'm not really familiar with the Lions situation you talked about, nor do I care, but in general, I agree with what you seem to be saying - the rottenness of the media in general. It also says something about the good quality of your post by who is disagreeing with you.

[RashanGary]

RG, I'm not really familiar with the Lions situation you talked about, nor do I care, but in general, I agree with what you seem to be saying - the rottenness of the media in general. It also says something about the good quality of your post by who is disagreeing with you.

Right. It doesn’t matter why the media writes garbage. They write garbage. You could say a drug dealer deals drugs because people want to buy drugs and put the blame on the buyer. It’s the same thing. Just because people click it doesn’t mean doing it is honorable.

[run pMc]

Right. It doesn’t matter why the media writes garbage. They write garbage. You could say a drug dealer deals drugs because people want to buy drugs and put the blame on the buyer. It’s the same thing. Just because people click it doesn’t mean doing it is honorable.

Um drugs are potentially fatal. A news story isn't.
Reminder: 95% of the information you get about the Packers is from a news source. The same could be said for draft information. If you think the JSO or SI or the Athletic are the equivalent of drug dealers, maybe you should quit reading.

[bobblehead]

Um drugs are potentially fatal. A news story isn't.
Reminder: 95% of the information you get about the Packers is from a news source. The same could be said for draft information. If you think the JSO or SI or the Athletic are the equivalent of drug dealers, maybe you should quit reading.

They are fatal because someone ingested them, not because someone sold them. Potato Tomato.

All this media talk is walking to close to the sun though (politics) and someone is going to end up suspended if we don't drop it.

[ThunderDan]

Right. It doesn’t matter why the media writes garbage. They write garbage. You could say a drug dealer deals drugs because people want to buy drugs and put the blame on the buyer. It’s the same thing. Just because people click it doesn’t mean doing it is honorable.

Sometimes you sure are thick.

If no one was buying drugs there wouldn't be drug dealers. I am not placing blame anywhere. It is simply a fact. No demand for a product, no one provides a product.

There are a lot of reputable sources of good information. Not all sources are garbage. Just because you click on garbage sources and stories doesn't mean most or all media is garbage.

[bobblehead]

Sometimes you sure are thick.

If no one was buying drugs there wouldn't be drug dealers. I am not placing blame anywhere. It is simply a fact. No demand for a product, no one provides a product.

There are a lot of reputable sources of good information. Not all sources are garbage. Just because you click on garbage sources and stories doesn't mean most or all media is garbage.

I'm going to go ahead and call you out Dan, because this is a very common tactic of yours. You CLEARLY placed blame on the consumer and then immediately resorted to being a raging dick when someone pointed out the problem with it. I'm not even disagreeing with you that the consumer is the problem, but you can't make that post then call Tex thick for pointing out an equivalent by playing the victim and pretending innocent you NEVER placed blame. You can call tex thick for a LOT of other things, but in this case you are simply coming across as a jerk.

Sorry, got to completely disagree with this.

"Media" as you define it creates content because you click on it or subscribe to it. If you stop watching the "media" and clicking on their articles, maybe we could have "media" that actually reports what is happening in the game and in the clubhouse.

But that isn't going to happen because so many people like to watch a trainwreck happen, real or imaginary. The "media" is what it is because of the collective "us".

How is this NOT placing blame.

[sharpe1027]

I'm going to go ahead and call you out Dan, because this is a very common tactic of yours. You CLEARLY placed blame on the consumer and then immediately resorted to being a raging dick when someone pointed out the problem with it. I'm not even disagreeing with you that the consumer is the problem, but you can't make that post then call Tex thick for pointing out an equivalent by playing the victim and pretending innocent you NEVER placed blame. You can call tex thick for a LOT of other things, but in this case you are simply coming across as a jerk.




How is this NOT placing blame.

It's a factual statement. You must first apply your own opinion to reach an assumption something is wrong before there can be blame.

Not taking sides on the whole issue, but that's how understood his point.

That being said, the implication of blame was a very reasonable assumption to reach given the context.

[run pMc]

If Gute acted like that at his presser, would we think it was a good look?
I'm not so sure.

What about Murphy or MLF?

While I agree some in the media behave reprehensibly, I think there are a lot of credentialed press who legitimately do a good job and shouldn't be lumped in with the bad. It's like saying all _____ are bad because one or two are. Journalists have broken some very important stories, let's not call them all pukes. As for the sensational stuff, if people didn't click on it or react to it, it wouldn't have any market. It's called clickbait for a reason, and a lot of journalists are pushed by editors or the higher ups to produce clicks for ad revenue.
That doesn't mean the media can or should act irresponsibly and if they deserve to be called out, fine. I assume we don't need reminders that freedom of press is critical to a democracy.

Personally I'd give something Silverstein writes more credence than whatever Skip Bayless spouts off about. There are journalists and there are commentators/opinion piece writers. If you want facts, stay away from the latter.

[texaspackerbacker]

The huge majority of those claiming to be "journalists" actually are the other thing you mentioned, run pMc. RG equating them to drug dealers may be slightly extreme, but only by degree. People are starved for facts, especially in the realm of sports, and those bastards are pushing a large percentage of fake news. Granted, the strictly Packer media people may not be as bad as some others, but they certainly aren't guiltless.