Another boring money post

[mraynrand]

I don't care how long it takes. Eventually AAPL will get to a 20ish PE like most other big companies. They're a steal and a half and not going anywhere any time soon. I don't have the time to day trade, so I stick with safe stocks mathematically backed to have big returns.

I'm more than happy with the 100% returns I've seen on my AAPL. I'll be overjoyed at 200% in a 3 year stint. That's pretty unbelievable.

Who said anything about day trading?

Your 100% return on AAPL is not all that unusual or unique for the period during which it happened. If you have a 100% return, you have owned the stock for around 2 years, at least. During that same time period, you would have had a 200% return already if you had bought PCLN ($500+ now, $160s just 2 years ago). CMI was in the low $40s 2 years ago and hit $120 earlier this year. CAT was in the $30s and $40s in the summer and fall of '09 and is in the high $80s now after having been above $110 for a while this spring and summer. DE went from the low $40s to above $90 and currently is around $80. HOG went from sub $20 to plus $40.

While your initial investment may increase by another 100% if AAPL hits $600, the gain for new money invested (or of the current value of your AAPL holding) will be around 60%. To get there, AAPL has to travel through a price territory that it has never been in. It is in a highly competitive market where one misstep could have a significant impact. I think AAPL is pretty well positioned to get to $600, but I also think there are some old, stodgy companies that might have similar returns from this time forward (if we don't go into another recession), and they can get there just by continuing to do what they have done for 100 years or more. To hedge my bets, I will probably buy some of those soon to hold along with the AAPL stock I already have.

[mraynrand]

Fire up the Patler signal! The city is in crisis! Commissioner Gordon is at his wit's end!

[Partial]

Who said anything about day trading?

Your 100% return on AAPL is not all that unusual or unique for the period during which it happened. If you have a 100% return, you have owned the stock for around 2 years, at least. During that same time period, you would have had a 200% return already if you had bought PCLN ($500+ now, $160s just 2 years ago). CMI was in the low $40s 2 years ago and hit $120 earlier this year. CAT was in the $30s and $40s in the summer and fall of '09 and is in the high $80s now after having been above $110 for a while this spring and summer. DE went from the low $40s to above $90 and currently is around $80. HOG went from sub $20 to plus $40.

While your initial investment may increase by another 100% if AAPL hits $600, the gain for new money invested (or of the current value of your AAPL holding) will be around 60%. To get there, AAPL has to travel through a price territory that it has never been in. It is in a highly competitive market where one misstep could have a significant impact. I think AAPL is pretty well positioned to get to $600, but I also think there are some old, stodgy companies that might have similar returns from this time forward (if we don't go into another recession), and they can get there just by continuing to do what they have done for 100 years or more. To hedge my bets, I will probably buy some of those soon to hold along with the AAPL stock I already have.

You may have just gotten lucky, Pat, I have no idea. Historical annual yields are what, less than 10%. 100% in 2 years when I should be earning 18-20% if spectacular. Sure, some stocks may do better, others may do worse. If I make a 300% profit in 4 years, which mathematically will likely happen, that's downright unbelievable. Regardless of your stocks may have done, it's foolish to say that AAPL has been anything less than a dream stock.

I don't know what those other companies are, so I don't have much to say about them other than good, I'm glad they're doing well.

AAPL is recession proof right now. It's unbelievably safe. The PEG ratio is fantastic. People are not going to stop buying iPhones and iPads anytime soon. Apple has this market by the balls and the strangle hold will only continue to get stronger while the total size of the market increases. 150M iPhones in one year at 400 profit per phone?? RIDICULOUS!!

Priceless!

Why? Patler has made money, I've made money, so that's excellent. It's not foolish to love a stock that is recession proof, has gone up >100% in two years, and is likely to hit 1000 within a few years, giving me a >500% return. Yes, I know, when the market would have made me ~50% in 5 years, I've been busy making 500%. 10x market pace IS priceless!

[MJZiggy]

You think people are going to buy Apple stock at $1K a share?

[Patler]

You may have just gotten lucky, Pat, I have no idea. Historical annual yields are what, less than 10%. 100% in 2 years when I should be earning 18-20% if spectacular. Sure, some stocks may do better, others may do worse. If I make a 300% profit in 4 years, which mathematically will likely happen, that's downright unbelievable. Regardless of your stocks may have done, it's foolish to say that AAPL has been anything less than a dream stock.

I don't know what those other companies are, so I don't have much to say about them other than good, I'm glad they're doing well.

AAPL is recession proof right now. It's unbelievably safe. The PEG ratio is fantastic. People are not going to stop buying iPhones and iPads anytime soon. Apple has this market by the balls and the strangle hold will only continue to get stronger while the total size of the market increases. 150M iPhones in one year at 400 profit per phone?? RIDICULOUS!!



Why? Patler has made money, I've made money, so that's excellent. It's not foolish to love a stock that is recession proof, has gone up >100% in two years, and is likely to hit 1000 within a few years, giving me a >500% return. Yes, I know, when the market would have made me ~50% in 5 years, I've been busy making 500%. 10x market pace IS priceless!

I hate to keep saying this, but I want to be clear. I really do like APPL, and I own a decent amount of it. But focusing on only one stock can lead to disappointments, too. I would hardly say AAPL is recession proof. A company that sells discretionary items like cell phones, computers and entertainment gizmos is not recession proof. Recession proof industries are the ones that sell things you can't do without, like simple foods.

AAPL is on a heck of a roll, but the better purcahse two years ago was Priceline.com (PCLN). Well under $200 ($160-ish) just 24 months ago, now over $500. I never bought it myself, always talked myself out of it, unfortunately. I did buy GE and hold it for over a year and double my money when I sold it. I bought Caterpillar (CAT) and Cummins (CMI) later in their run-ups and made some money on them.

The 10% market yields you talk about are averages for all stocks, but many lose a huge amount, and others like AAPL, PCLN etc. have great returns. That is what I meant about APPL not being unique. There are always some that will go on a sustained run. The key is to find them; and in my opinion to buy several, because the market is finicky and can obliterate a gain in the blink of an eye for no apparent reason sometime.

You are in a different situation than I am. You are young and can recover from a big hit. I am at a stage of life where I have to temper my risk. I do that by buying multiple stocks, all of which I think can beat the market over the next few quarters or longer.

I'm not slamming AAPL at all, just pointing out that it is neither the only nor the biggest winner the past two years. People have done just as well the past 24 months with many different stocks. That is always the case.

[Patler]

You think people are going to buy Apple stock at $1K a share?

That is a psychological hurdle for a lot of people, but it shouldn't be. You can buy 1 share of a $1,000 stock, 10 shares of a $100 stock, 100 shares of a $10 stock or 1000 shares of a $1 stock. It really doesn't matter.

[retailguy]

Why? Patler has made money, I've made money, so that's excellent. It's not foolish to love a stock that is recession proof, has gone up >100% in two years, and is likely to hit 1000 within a few years, giving me a >500% return. Yes, I know, when the market would have made me ~50% in 5 years, I've been busy making 500%. 10x market pace IS priceless!

What was/is hilarious to me is that you don't understand diversification, or if you understand it, you don't preach or practice it. Investing $60K into AAPL (or ANY single stock) is ABSOLUTELY FOOLISH, unless $60k is not a material amount of money to you. I suspect that is the case with Skinbasket (It is material) and I am CERTAIN it is material to you.

"Playing around" with insignificant amounts of cash in single stocks in the stock market is one thing, something I have ZERO problems with, however, high stakes gambling (single stock investing) with material amounts of money injects so much risk into the equation it is FOOLHARDY, even when you make money.

You have the AAPL rose colored glasses on, so you aren't teachable any longer, but you're going to get your ass kicked in life very hard and I'm going to shake my head, roll my eyes, feel sorry for your spouse and family, and then laugh my fool ass off until I cry. Recession proof? You are fucking NUTS. NOTHING is recession proof. NOTHING. Didn't you learn a GD thing from Enron? Worldcom? Tyco? You are an abject fool if you truly believe AAPL is "recession proof", much less "risk proof".

Skinbasket, I haven't weighed in, because I'm the most boring investor out there. If it were my money, and I had a 5 year time horizon or more, I'd look for the most stable, balanced mutual fund I could find, in an area I understood, and park it. I work too hard to put a lot of risk into losing $60k, so, FWIW, that's what I do, and what I recommend to ALL of my clients. I have yet to recommend another path. YMMV.

[retailguy]

You think people are going to buy Apple stock at $1K a share?

That is a psychological hurdle for a lot of people, but it shouldn't be. You can buy 1 share of a $1,000 stock, 10 shares of a $100 stock, 100 shares of a $10 stock or 1000 shares of a $1 stock. It really doesn't matter.

Berkshire Hathaway closed on Friday at $102,272. per share. It makes AAPL look like the tinkertoy company it is. (I don't own single shares of it either, though I do invest in a couple of mutual funds that hold some of it).

The only single stock that I own are the shares of my employer that I received as part of my compensation.

[Partial]

What was/is hilarious to me is that you don't understand diversification, or if you understand it, you don't preach or practice it. Investing $60K into AAPL (or ANY single stock) is ABSOLUTELY FOOLISH, unless $60k is not a material amount of money to you. I suspect that is the case with Skinbasket (It is material) and I am CERTAIN it is material to you.

IDK, depends on a lot of things. My entire 401k money is in a wide variety of mutual funds. While I made 25% on it two years ago, it made next to nothing last year, while my AAPL blew up. I *DO* believe in diversification, which is why we're about to buy another 20K of GE. You assume many things of which you don't know.

"Playing around" with insignificant amounts of cash in single stocks in the stock market is one thing, something I have ZERO problems with, however, high stakes gambling (single stock investing) with material amounts of money injects so much risk into the equation it is FOOLHARDY, even when you make money.

I don't agree with this. It's risky, yes, but it's a calculated risk. It's not playing blackjack. There is sound math and historical evidence behind it.

You have the AAPL rose colored glasses on, so you aren't teachable any longer, but you're going to get your ass kicked in life very hard and I'm going to shake my head, roll my eyes, feel sorry for your spouse and family, and then laugh my fool ass off until I cry. Recession proof? You are fucking NUTS. NOTHING is recession proof. NOTHING. Didn't you learn a GD thing from Enron? Worldcom? Tyco? You are an abject fool if you truly believe AAPL is "recession proof", much less "risk proof".

Those are cases of corruption, not recession. Do you think companies are suddenly going to stop giving their employees smart phones? Do you think consumers are going to stop buying smart phones? Apple is about as recession proof as it gets, imo. There margins are 40-50%. If they need to temporarily cut the cost of goods to sell them, they'll be able to do so and still be quite profitable.

Obviously there are inherit risks with investing. I'm really big into applying math principals into them. Lots of people look at PE, but I like the much less commonly used PEG because it accounts for growth. PEG ratio is a phenomenal indication for purchasing stocks. Something like 94% of stocks perform according to what the ratio dictates I've read. That's a pretty strong indication, in my opinion.

FWIW, AAPL has the biggest market capitalization of any company in the world. There's nothing tinkertoy about it.

Patler, I completely agree with you that obviously there are stocks that are going to do better and worse. I know you obviously like AAPL, who wouldn't when they own it , my point is saying that while there may be some better stocks out there, AAPL is pretty outrageously good. Lots of financial analysts that are quoted on appleinsider.com are saying that 600 is the new 12 month price, and that it's only going to keep going up. I've read some say that is it the best stock to buy right now. We both know it's ridiculously under valued. Eventually the market has a way of correcting itself and putting it's PE in line with other very large companies (which will make it very, very valuable). IMO, it's very safe, and it's something that I know very well and follow closely. Part of the reason I'm such a strong advocate for it is because I follow Apple as closely as anyone. It would be foolish for me to invest in some other companies that I don't follow and aren't particularly interested in supporting, because I won't know when the time is right to buy in or get out.

RG hit the nail on the head when he said a few years back to only invest in something you fully understand. For me, that's AAPL and that's why I'm such a strong advocate of it.

[Bretsky]

Your fascination with AAPL is blinding, isn't it?

The frustrating thing is that the $600/share estimate is not new, but they keep moving back the "expected by" date. To get to $610, AAPL would increase about 60% from its current price of around $385, but would have to increase around 50% from its high. It has a lot of new territory to go through to get to $600. I think there are other stocks that can do just as well, some of which will also kick in a nice dividend that AAPL does not. Stocks that have been unfairly punished over the last couple months.

I will continue to hold my AAPL stock, but doubt that I will be adding to it. I think there are "better buys" out there. Stocks that could return nearly 50% just by recovering to their recent highs of this year, from which they had been expected to gain 10%-20% just a couple months ago. There were no reasons for some of these stocks to have declined as much as they have, other than just the general market sell off.

Hey Patler..............spill some juice for us................give us 5 stocks that may fall into the category to consider

[mraynrand]

Skinbasket, I haven't weighed in, because I'm the most boring investor out there. If it were my money, and I had a 5 year time horizon or more, I'd look for the most stable, balanced mutual fund I could find, in an area I understood, and park it. I work too hard to put a lot of risk into losing $60k, so, FWIW, that's what I do, and what I recommend to ALL of my clients. I have yet to recommend another path. YMMV.

You and I could get together for an investors yawn-fest. Probably the most risky thing I do is the emerging markets mutual funds, but even that is not a major fraction of investments. I like the home investment because they have been incredibly inexpensive lately, and eventually they will come back - plus it's tangible, and the rent more than doubles the taxes, insurance and maintenance.

[Partial]

You and I could get together for an investors yawn-fest. Probably the most risky thing I do is the emerging markets mutual funds, but even that is not a major fraction of investments. I like the home investment because they have been incredibly inexpensive lately, and eventually they will come back - plus it's tangible, and the rent more than doubles the taxes, insurance and maintenance.

Do you worry about people destroying your places? I've considered purchasing and living in a quadplex.

[SkinBasket]

AAPL is recession proof right now. It's unbelievably safe.

That's what they said about beanie babies too.

[SkinBasket]

Skinbasket, I haven't weighed in, because I'm the most boring investor out there. If it were my money, and I had a 5 year time horizon or more, I'd look for the most stable, balanced mutual fund I could find, in an area I understood, and park it. I work too hard to put a lot of risk into losing $60k, so, FWIW, that's what I do, and what I recommend to ALL of my clients. I have yet to recommend another path. YMMV.

I'm looking for something safe, at least until we have a federal government the markets can trust.

You should PM me what it is you do, as I might be looking for someone just like you soon.

[MJZiggy]

Do you worry about people destroying your places? I've considered purchasing and living in a quadplex.

You have to understand people. You have to learn enough about a renter in the initial visit and checks to understand what kind of people you're renting to. You also have to be handy enough to fix shit that breaks in their unit in a timely manner.

[Patler]

Do you think companies are suddenly going to stop giving their employees smart phones?

OF COURSE THEY WILL! My gosh, do you have any idea what goes on at a company struggling to keep its share price up? First, they will simply limit the employees that can get new smartphones. Then they will limit the ones who can even have them. Then they will go through large scale layoffs. Each step limits sales opportunities for all smartphone providers.

Do you think consumers are going to stop buying smart phones?

OF COURSE THEY WILL, if a recession hits and lasts. There is nothing essential about having a smartphone. If the choice is between food, rent and a smartphone, the phone is the first thing to go. Not only will they not buy new ones, they won't even pay for the data plans to support their old ones.

Obviously there are inherit risks with investing. I'm really big into applying math principals into them. Lots of people look at PE, but I like the much less commonly used PEG because it accounts for growth. PEG ratio is a phenomenal indication for purchasing stocks. Something like 94% of stocks perform according to what the ratio dictates I've read. That's a pretty strong indication, in my opinion.

I hope you realize the PEG ratio is based on predicted growth. In that way, it is one of the most unreliable tools, because if the prediction for growth is wrong, the whole thing falls apart. There is nothing certain about predicting the future.

Lots of financial analysts that are quoted on appleinsider.com are saying that 600 is the new 12 month price, and that it's only going to keep going up. I've read some say that is it the best stock to buy right now. We both know it's ridiculously under valued. Eventually the market has a way of correcting itself and putting it's PE in line with other very large companies (which will make it very, very valuable).

There is nothing new about the $600 prediction. Earlier this year, some were predicting it for the end of 2011.

IMO, it's very safe, and it's something that I know very well and follow closely. Part of the reason I'm such a strong advocate for it is because I follow Apple as closely as anyone. It would be foolish for me to invest in some other companies that I don't follow and aren't particularly interested in supporting, because I won't know when the time is right to buy in or get out.

I agree that you should know what you invest in, but it is unwise to ever think anything is certain. You should also look at how often the so-called experts are flat out wrong.

[mraynrand]

Do you worry about people destroying your places? I've considered purchasing and living in a quadplex.

You have to understand people. You have to learn enough about a renter in the initial visit and checks to understand what kind of people you're renting to. You also have to be handy enough to fix shit that breaks in their unit in a timely manner.

Yeah, and sometimes stuff gets wrecked. But usually you can tell pretty quick if someone is the type to really destroy as opposed to just 'be dirty' and mess the place up. Painting, drywall, even some fixtures here and there is not that expensive. I kinda like the picky tenants, because you know they will keep the place nice. A few extra jobs are worth it to keep 'em happy.

[mraynrand]

There is nothing certain about predicting the future.

True that

[Patler]

Hey Patler..............spill some juice for us................give us 5 stocks that may fall into the category to consider

Heck, I haven't even decided to buy any myself, let alone recommend them to someone else. I'm holding a lot of cash right now until we see the direction the economy is headed.

[Scott Campbell]

I remember being lectured about how a home was a sure thing as an investment.