It's hard for me to decide what Bush is thinking. I've always believed that the Iraq war was more Cheney's idea than it was Bush's. Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz were all members of PNAC, Bush was not. I suspect if Bush could do it all over again, he would stay out Of Iraq, but that is not the case with Cheney.

Rice has been able to increase her influence because the neocons have been discredited because nearly all their predictions about what would happen in Iraq have been proved wrong. I think Rice probably has more in common with the foreign policies of George H.W. Bush. I think Bush's problem is it is difficult for him to make a clean break from the neocons without making it appear that he thinks the Iraq war was a big mistake. There fore I think the President is just playing the string out until the end of his Presidency. He knows he can't fix Iraq, but is afraid of what kind of chaos will ensue if he packs up and leaves.