Quote Originally Posted by pbmax View Post
The big wins and the regular season record are all good signs. The horrible record in close games tells a story about specific situations.
This is true but they count all four quarters when they add up wins and losses.

Arians is off to a great start. Bellichek and McCarthy have been doing it better than anyone else for a decade and beyond.

Here's as telling and as legitimate of a story about the same situations...

McCarthy's teams, when they lose, have a strong history of them being close games where the opponent has been forced to come back to beat them at the very end of the game. Far higher percentages of Arians' and other coaches losses have come in situations where they didn't pose a strong threat (didn't hold the lead) to win late in the game.

Good teams (coaches) win more than their competitors. When they win, they tend to win soundly, but when they do lose, they still have put themselves in position to win late in the game a high percentage of the time.

McCarthy is 45 out of 55 (.818) in forcing the opposition to win highly contested games.
Arians is only 8 out of 19 (.421)

Some day Bruce might catch McCarthy and Bellichek. He's put four good years together. Six more years of winning - along with at least a Super Bowl win - and he'll be right there. So far his playoff record is 1-2, and as Dan said they almost gave that one away.