More Banjo: Coronavirus And Sports

[call_me_ishmael]

That’s still 50-100/day and they get seasonal flu too., which kills a lot more than corona, and would be spiking about the same time. So unless they’re burning the bodies in one big outdoor pile like Jawas, I’m skeptical.

Why do you keep saying it kills more? That is beyond stupid and doesn't jive with current results seen in the real world and values projected by the CDC. You're spreading misinformation intentionally.

If an equal number of people get Covid 19 and the Flu, there were be at least 10-30x more deaths from covid based on what we've seen so far and what the CDC projects.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. "A lot more people get the flu" - No. Just no. Just no. Flu spreads to 1.3 people on average. Covid19 is 2-2.5 from the CDC. That means dramatically more people will get Covid19 given a similar window.

[call_me_ishmael]

These are the facts as they are known today. The source is the CDC.

[call_me_ishmael]

If the curve we're on continues (it won't entirely due to social distancing), in five weeks we'd have:
Today: 34,717 cases

Tuesday: 69,434 cases
Friday: 138,868 cases

Monday: 277,736 cases
Thursday: 555,472 cases
Sunday: 1,110,944 cases

Wednesay: 2,221,888 cases
Saturday: 4,443,776 cases

Tuesday: 8,887,552 cases
Friday: 17,775,104 cases

Monday: 35,550,208 cases
Thursday: 71,100,416 cases
Sunday: 142,200,832 cases

Or nearly 4x the average flu season.

Having the exponential growth in front of us, let's say the death rate is 1% - which is presently on the low end of projections from the CDC. That brings us to 142,201 deaths in the next 5 weeks.

Will this happen in reality? Of course not, we know about the virus spread now, people are taking it seriously, schools are shut down, etc and most cities are taking the measures to keep their people home, with the bigger ones requiring people to shelter in place. I expect the growth rate to be quelled majorly any day now. To be crystal clear, the growth of the flu would be stymied by the measures we're taking, too.

I suspect the whole "15 days to stop the spread" gets extended to 30 days.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Last question first: a small sample, but maybe 1 out of a dozen or so who is much less healthy. Strictly speaking, though, almost nobody my age is quite as healthy as me hahahahaha.

Passing it on while asymptomatic? Last I heard, the jury is still out on this - maybe zero, maybe a lot. Optimist that I am, I lean toward the zero.

While symptomatic? I suppose anybody you cough close enough to or that touches the residue of your symptoms and touches their own whatever before washing thoroughly.

In both cases, the point is that whoever a person might spread it to is likely not to suffer significantly at all - nothing compared to what every American is suffering from the stupid overreaction to all this shit.

I don't understand why you continue to make these baseless claims when the hard evidence coming from the field (medical evidence from other countries and now in the US) continue to build against you? The sad part is there are many other people that believe the same shit, which eventually leads to forced lockdowns. In any event, I hope all the rats have prepped accordingly and we all make it to the other side of this so we can continue to root for the Packers. P.S. I do agree it is boring as fuck not being able to go to bars, restaurants, gyms, etc although I imagine being hooked up to a ventilator aint so hot either.

[sharpe1027]

That the overcrowding is the direct result of the stupid testing? You would really ask that question? Sheeeesh.

So, no basis. Got it.

[sharpe1027]

That the overcrowding is the direct result of the stupid testing? You would really ask that question? Sheeeesh.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/21/...ients-at-home/

. With 70% of ICU beds reserved for critically ill Covid-19 patients, those beds are being allocated only to those “with a reasonable chance to survive,” as physicians make wrenching triage choices to try to keep alive those who have a chance. “Older patients are not being resuscitated and die alone without appropriate palliative care, while the family is notified over the phone, often by a well-intentioned, exhausted, and emotionally depleted physician with no prior contact,” they report.

Sure sounds like a lot of needless people at the hospital. God Damn, Tex. Have you no empathy?

[Zool]

God Damn, Tex. Have you no empathy?

[pbmax]

Watched that this weekend again.

[texaspackerbacker]

I don't understand why you continue to make these baseless claims when the hard evidence coming from the field (medical evidence from other countries and now in the US) continue to build against you? The sad part is there are many other people that believe the same shit, which eventually leads to forced lockdowns. In any event, I hope all the rats have prepped accordingly and we all make it to the other side of this so we can continue to root for the Packers. P.S. I do agree it is boring as fuck not being able to go to bars, restaurants, gyms, etc although I imagine being hooked up to a ventilator aint so hot either.

Be at least a little bit specific. What do you see as a "baseless claim"? Common sense is often seen as "baseless" among panic-mongers, I guess.

[texaspackerbacker]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/21/...ients-at-home/



Sure sounds like a lot of needless people at the hospital. God Damn, Tex. Have you no empathy?

Empathy? For druggies catching AIDS from needles? Hell no, not for that. That's the only time I mentioned empathy.

This hospital crowding thing? You have it exactly backwards - surprise surprise. If they don't have enough beds for truly sick old people dying from corona or whatever (and that is a very shaky claim just about everywhere in the country), the reason is the herding of people with mild or no symptoms into hospitals unnecessarily.

If I'm gonna have empathy, it's gonna be for the huge majority of good normal people, not a few exceptional cases, and absolutely not for shithead druggies and others who suffer because of bad choices they make.

Oh yeah, and Zool, you continue to be a worthless piece of shit and dumb as a rock, incapable of putting a coherent sentences together much less a whole post.

[pbmax]

Exterior: Highway with slowing traffic

Interior: Car windshield looking at traffic slowing near accident

Driver: Hmmm

Passenger: looks bad, lot of ambulances

Driver: Traffic fatalities are down this year

Passenger: Shame when humans fail to deliver

Driver: You have to know when its your time

Interior: Floor pedals: driver hits accelerator

[texaspackerbacker]

Good job, driver - getting the fuck out of the way and not contributing to the problem. Shame you have to carry around dumbasses, though. I'm in Packerrats, so I can certainly empathize with you about that.

[George Cumby]

If I'm gonna have empathy, it's gonna be for the small minority of ignorant, white, proto-fascists who think/believe exactly as I do and absolutely not for shithead blacks, Mexicans or anyone else who doesn't submit to the ultimate superiority of white Christian-Dominionism.

Oh yeah, and Zool, you continue to be a model poster, who's incisive analysis, quick wit, capacity for logic and intelligence are quite beyond my limited capacity to understand.

FTFY

[mraynrand]

Why do you keep saying it kills more? That is beyond stupid and doesn't jive with current results seen in the real world and values projected by the CDC. You're spreading misinformation intentionally.

If an equal number of people get Covid 19 and the Flu, there were be at least 10-30x more deaths from covid based on what we've seen so far and what the CDC projects.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. "A lot more people get the flu" - No. Just no. Just no. Flu spreads to 1.3 people on average. Covid19 is 2-2.5 from the CDC. That means dramatically more people will get Covid19 given a similar window.

There are two separate issues here. One is the Ro which they have reasonably good data on. Corona is much more infectious than flu. What we still don’t know for certain is the total exposure of corona, because they’re still catching up with testing and the testing is skewed towards people presenting with symptoms which will give higher numbers.

more total people will be exposed to corona and infected but don’t know yet exact numbers of those with illness (actual symptoms) compared to those showing no symptoms.

I’ve said before that I’m hopeful, specifically because corona is far more infectious, that far more people actually have been exposed and ‘recovered’ (many without knowing it) so that the lethal numbers we have now will be over estimates.

[mraynrand]

Again, it still doesn’t mean corona is not a serious Illness. As I’ve been saying from the beginning it acts a lot like flu - it’s infectious enough to be endemic so that ultimately there’s no way to really hide from it. Everyone effectively gets exposed. It’s gonna suck to have another flu like disease that kills thousands probably each season, assuming it comes back seasonally. It mutates a lot so it may be as impervious to vaccine as seasonal flu. Even with a good flu vaccine regimen, tens of thousands die each year from flu.

But the reason we tolerate flu the way we do, is that there’s no way to hide from it. Even as we shut down for corona, everyone is going to be exposed eventually and eventually we’re probably going to have to live with it. I don’t know the long term prospects of the chloroquine drug, but the virus is likely to mutate enough so escape that drug just like malaria did. Hopefully it will be effective for most corona this season as needed.

Again, I just hope the lethality percentages are overestimated. But as we learn more about the virus we’ll know how to combat it. Eventually I think we’ll sequester the susceptible over social distancing the whole society.

[texaspackerbacker]

FTFY

Cumby, you America-hating shithead, that is absolutely NOT a quote from me. pbmax, can you sanction him for posting a blatant misquote like that?

[call_me_ishmael]

There are two separate issues here. One is the Ro which they have reasonably good data on. Corona is much more infectious than flu. What we still don’t know for certain is the total exposure of corona, because they’re still catching up with testing and the testing is skewed towards people presenting with symptoms which will give higher numbers.

more total people will be exposed to corona and infected but don’t know yet exact numbers of those with illness (actual symptoms) compared to those showing no symptoms.

I’ve said before that I’m hopeful, specifically because corona is far more infectious, that far more people actually have been exposed and ‘recovered’ (many without knowing it) so that the lethal numbers we have now will be over estimates.

I think we’re all hopeful of that. Right now you’re knowingly and intentionally spreading disinformation. That’s really shitty of you. Right now there are no facts to support your narrative. In a few weeks or months there might be, but right now it’s unfounded speculation based on hope and whimsy. That’s wildly irresponsible and dangerous.

[pbmax]

Cumby, you America-hating shithead, that is absolutely NOT a quote from me. pbmax, can you sanction him for posting a blatant misquote like that?

I believe custom allows mocking changes to quotes as long as the poster indicates that they have altered it. Fixed That For You acronyms counts.

Though George could be kinder and bold the section he altered.

[mraynrand]

I think we’re all hopeful of that. Right now you’re knowingly and intentionally spreading disinformation. That’s really shitty of you. Right now there are no facts to support your narrative. In a few weeks or months there might be, but right now it’s unfounded speculation based on hope and whimsy. That’s wildly irresponsible and dangerous.

That’s weird. You’re doing exactly what you’re accusing me of - you don’t know the denominator so you’re quoting lethality percentages that are clearly deceptive. My estimates are all qualified.

[call_me_ishmael]

That’s weird. You’re doing exactly what you’re accusing me of - you don’t know the denominator so you’re quoting lethality percentages that are clearly deceptive. My estimates are all qualified.

I'm using the facts as they exist today from the CDC. That's the responsible thing to do. If anything, my approach is the *conservative* approach. If the death rate goes down because the denominator increases, the amount of deaths is still the same. It might in time prove to be less deadly than the flu, but right now there is no reason to believe that beyond hope and whimsy.