Official Degenerate Gamblers Thread

[bobblehead]

We have discussed NFL betting in many threads. I think its time to get some crowd sourcing and discussion centralized in one place.

I put in a wager on the first game to start at 2pm Pacific.

I played a 2 team teaser with the lines landing at Pittsburg -1/2 and Under 49.5. Pays -120. I like Pitt to win a game that plays closer than many think. They have played down to the competition many times this season while remaining undefeated. Washington likely can't put up too many points against the Steel Curtain circa 2020, but their D hasn't been a sieve. Pitt might very well cover -6.5, but I like teasers where I can get a superior team down to -1 or better.

Anyone like anything today? We got a double header on the schedule.

[GB-Brandon]

I LOVE Buffalo tonight!! Line has moved to my favor and wrong team is favored as far as I’m concerned. Lot of people moving to Niners on their one game sample size last week and heavy line movement !!! Not Me!!! Not with a back up QB against a better roster in the Buffalo Bills!!! I’m going the Other Fucking Way!!!! To me this is just a great “Value Game” getting Buffalo at -105 ML to pass up. I’ll take Josh Allen(The Better QB) and the more consistent team every time. Buffalo is balanced on offense and play great defense and are coming into this game at optimal health.

I like the Steelers and while the -6.5 is tempting I don’t have the same confidence but I do believe they win. The Redskins could stick around though. I just don’t have the same feel on this game other then Pittsburgh will win.

Bet 1. Two Team Parlay
Bills ML -105
Steelers ML -300

Bet 2
Bills ML -105

[bobblehead]

I LOVE Buffalo tonight!! Line has moved to my favor and wrong team is favored as far as I’m concerned. Lot of people moving to Niners on their one game sample size last week and heavy line movement !!! Not Me!!! Not with a back up QB against a better roster in the Buffalo Bills!!! I’m going the Other Fucking Way!!!! To me this is just a great “Value Game” getting Buffalo at -105 ML to pass up. I’ll take Josh Allen(The Better QB) and the more consistent team every time. Buffalo is balanced on offense and play great defense and are coming into this game at optimal health.

I like the Steelers and while the -6.5 is tempting I don’t have the same confidence but I do believe they win. The Redskins could stick around though. I just don’t have the same feel on this game other then Pittsburgh will win.

Bet 1. Two Team Parlay
Bills ML -105
Steelers ML -300

Bet 2
Bills ML -105

This is another game of out of conference on the road. Buffalo is the superior team at this point, but has to travel cross country. The possible catch is that its not "home field" for SF. Its AZ. I don't really like the game to be honest. I like the under at 48. I think it will be relatively low scoring. If I win my teaser I might put a few dollars on the under, but I just can't get behind either team here.

[GB-Brandon]

This is another game of out of conference on the road. Buffalo is the superior team at this point, but has to travel cross country. The possible catch is that its not "home field" for SF. Its AZ. I don't really like the game to be honest. I like the under at 48. I think it will be relatively low scoring. If I win my teaser I might put a few dollars on the under, but I just can't get behind either team here.

To each their own. These are the types of games I LOVE!!! Look for a big Buffalo special teams play as well as Andre Roberts is a total stud. Could be the difference.

As long as Buffalo doesn’t lose turnover battle they win this game!!!

[RashanGary]

As a sports enthusiast, in high school, Gus Macker and the YMCA alike, the beat team usually wins. But this is rigged professional sports. Bet the opposite and you have yourself a career.

[RashanGary]

Better off betting against the spread than outright upsets, but it holds true

[smuggler]

How does everyone feel about taking the Cowpokes +8.5 tomorrow in Baltimore? I'm thinking about it. They suck, but the Ravens have played kinda flat lately on offense. I'm thinking it may actually be a low-scoring affair.

[GB-Brandon]

Better off betting against the spread than outright upsets, but it holds true

Nah. You just gotta learn how to handicap this shit yourself. I keep saying the same thing over and over. “Chase Value, Chase Value, Chase Value” a

[GB-Brandon]

How does everyone feel about taking the Cowpokes +8.5 tomorrow in Baltimore? I'm thinking about it. They suck, but the Ravens have played kinda flat lately on offense. I'm thinking it may actually be a low-scoring affair.

I wouldn’t do that!!! Time for Baltimore to flip the switch. I’d take Baltimore and buy it down to -7 if anything. Jackson is playing and Dallas has a trash defense.

[GB-Brandon]

Josh Allen is a Fucken Boss!! All these Fucken idiots took Mulliens over Allen and pushed the line 5 points !!! Lmao!!!!!

Talk about a Fucken Christmas Present!!! This is what I meant about a GAME I LOVE!!!!

That’s what makes this shit soooooooo easy!!!

[GB-Brandon]

I Smell Blood!! Pounce on that Niner Ass for good measure at Buffalo +3.5 -110 2nd Half for good measure!!!

[MadtownPacker]

Usually full of shit Brandon but you know if it, Allen is a beast. Big Ben kinda player IMO. That includes being a winner. Plus he is a Cali guy.

[smuggler]

I wouldn’t do that!!! Time for Baltimore to flip the switch. I’d take Baltimore and buy it down to -7 if anything. Jackson is playing and Dallas has a trash defense.

I'm on the fence. I'll put $50 on the 'Pokes. If I'm right that'd be the third straight "Told Ya So" when it comes to betting, Brandon. But, you're probably closer to the voice of reason on this one, amazingly.

[GB-Brandon]

I'm on the fence. I'll put $50 on the 'Pokes. If I'm right that'd be the third straight "Told Ya So" when it comes to betting, Brandon. But, you're probably closer to the voice of reason on this one, amazingly.

Play it. I very rarely lay points. Has all the feelings of a cover to me though. It’s a mid-tier play for me that I will surely take. I have zero faith in Dallas against a quality team right now. It’s at Baltimore in their elements. Dallas’s defense is gonna get their face kicked in!!!

[GB-Brandon]

So basically that’s pretty much what happens when I say “I LOVE A GAME.” I don’t normally even share this shit. It just so happened Bobble put this thread up today and I saw it. This was a game that you were able to get at +113 at kickoff and it was a blow out winner!! 1st half winner, 2nd half winner etc etc!!! “Rack City”. Total Fuck Job!!! Had nothing to do with rigging like RG suggested. Had everything to do with people making stupid bets pushing the line and mistakes being made making line. It happens. If any bookie or service gave anyone this play to pick the Niners you should fire their ass immediately!!!!!!

Also, Bills at 22 to 1 Super Bowl Odds are Very Nice. They really can do it all and that is AMAZING VALUE. I will be pounding that when I go to Vegas Friday!!!!

[RashanGary]

I'm on the fence. I'll put $50 on the 'Pokes. If I'm right that'd be the third straight "Told Ya So" when it comes to betting, Brandon. But, you're probably closer to the voice of reason on this one, amazingly.

This is the kind of bet I win quite often. I would probably bet on the cowboys with the handicap. However, this one doesn’t seem obviously enough of a rigged game for me to want to make any bet on it. I’ve gotten a little more selective once I fully realized it’s rigged this year. I like to bet when the entire herd is going in one direction now and I don’t know if the herd is big enough here to make it a clearly rigged game. As such, it’s a huge gamble cuz you never know what will happen.

I always say when the refs are with you, no one can be against you. No guarantees in this one.

[RashanGary]

Wait until the end. If every piece of media and prediction is the ravens in a route, take the cowboys with the points. I wouldn’t do moneyline here. It’s too tempting and I just feel like the nfl would be as likely to fuck the greedy moneyline people as they are the people who like the safer bet of the ravens covering. Fuck everyone and keep it tight. That’s what I’d do if I was rigging it and that’s usually what happens

[GB-Brandon]

Wait until the end. If every piece of media and prediction is the ravens in a route, take the cowboys with the points. I wouldn’t do moneyline here. It’s too tempting and I just feel like the nfl would be as likely to fuck the greedy moneyline people as they are the people who like the safer bet of the ravens covering. Fuck everyone and keep it tight. That’s what I’d do if I was rigging it and that’s usually what happens

Your overly obsessed with rigging. It’s what rookie gamblers or bettors do. You have to learn to bake that shit in. Now that doesn’t mean your gonna win every time but you simply can’t bet just on line movements and kill it. I suppose if that strategy is working for you then continue.

As far as this game the line has been everywhere. Currently I think it’s back up to -9. I’ve seen it as high as -9.5 and as low 7 and it’s bounced “both ways” so you have action going “both ways” on specific runs. There has been no clear one way run with the question of Jackson playing or not playing over the last week. Also, there has been Action to cover with comfort of NFC east teams making big ML upsets with the Skins and the Giants and some large prime time covers as well. TIME TO SHAKE THE HAND OUT!

I locked in on Ravens -7 last night and bought a half point to -6.5 at -130. MASSIVE VALUE!!!

As I’ve posted Dallas is going to get their face kicked in on Defense. Dalton won’t be able to keep up!!!

[bobblehead]

How does everyone feel about taking the Cowpokes +8.5 tomorrow in Baltimore? I'm thinking about it. They suck, but the Ravens have played kinda flat lately on offense. I'm thinking it may actually be a low-scoring affair.

I don't like this game, but given how Baltimore has been playing I think the value is in taking the points. Plus, even though I hate MM, he does tend to show a little pride when things go bad. I expect him to coach like his job is on the line.

[bobblehead]

Josh Allen is a Fucken Boss!! All these Fucken idiots took Mulliens over Allen and pushed the line 5 points !!! Lmao!!!!!

Talk about a Fucken Christmas Present!!! This is what I meant about a GAME I LOVE!!!!

That’s what makes this shit soooooooo easy!!!

The vegas line only moved 2 points. But you made the right call. Allen really showed up. I thought the 49er defense was better than that.