Official 2023 NFL Draft Thread

[run pMc]

Nutz I 100% agree with you - nobody I'd really chase, Johnson feels like more athlete than football player coming out of an often defense-optional Big12. Also agree as a GM I'd want as many top 100 picks as possible, even if that meant trading down a few times and giving up a top 20 R1 pick. There isn't a big difference between 15 and 25 in this draft other than having less choices. What I mean is I think the talent difference at 15 vs. 25 is negligible, assuming someone a surefire top 10 player doesn't plummet (cough Jalen Carter).

I'd also be open to doing things like trading a pick this year in R3 to get a R2 next year, but I'd also want to trade back to get a pick to make up for that. Anything to get as many picks as possible in the next few years as they unravel from their cap situation. It will be 2025 before they have ample cap space for extensions or to play with in free agency, if they can replace aging players with young top 100 or top 75 talent they absolutely should.

4 second rounders? That'd be nice, especially if 2-3 were top 50.

[run pMc]

He's generally regarded as the #4 OT in this draft. Most projections have him available when the Packers pick in the 1st round. Bigger than most at 335 pounds. Might be more of a RT than LT.

Yeah, he's on my list to watch. Seems like he's gaining some buzz, and he was first team SEC last year. I think he's a RT but I guess he's also played LT. Could probably slide inside to guard. I saw one scout compared him to Lael Collins.
I need to watch him more - haven't seen him enough yet but so far he's looked pretty good.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Yes. I love the guy. Ran 4.48 40 at pro day which is a little slower than Jennings. His agility scores are elite though. Great route runner. Not sure he'll be there at 15 though.

I don't believe that time at all. First, they said 4.50 to 4.53. Bank on it being 4.53. Plus, Pro Day results tend to be approximately 0.03 faster than the combine--especially at Ohio State. (This coming from a Buckeyes fan.) You don't need to watch tape long enough to see he doesn't have deep speed. He consistently got caught from behind. His speed is nowhere near Jennings.

I just noticed that Tank Bigsby ran 4.56 at the combine and 4.45 at his Pro Day.

[Joemailman]

I don't believe that time at all. First, they said 4.50 to 4.53. Bank on it being 4.53. Plus, Pro Day results tend to be approximately 0.03 faster than the combine--especially at Ohio State. (This coming from a Buckeyes fan.) You don't need to watch tape long enough to see he doesn't have deep speed. He consistently got caught from behind. His speed is nowhere near Jennings.

I just noticed that Tank Bigsby ran 4.56 at the combine and 4.45 at his Pro Day.

You think he's overrated, as far as being a top 10-20 pick?

[run pMc]

I don't think JSN is a 4.48 guy on most fields. OSU has a fast track.
I think he's closer to a 4.55 or 4.6 guy, but his agility and route running are as good as advertised. Davante wasn't a burner either.
I don't think he's explosive, I think he's steady. If you put him with Goff in DET or with Brady in his NE days he'd feast all day on 8 yard dump offs he'd turn into 12 yard gains.

That said, if he's there and Gute passes on him at 15 I won't be shocked. I wouldn't be mad if they took him either, but I think they could find passable slot receivers later, and they might go with a TE to be an outlet/MOF guy anyway.

[HarveyWallbangers]

You think he's overrated, as far as being a top 10-20 pick?

I would normally not have him as a top 15 player, but I think he'd be a good fit for the Packers--next to Watson and Doubs.

There are other guys that I'd rather we take if they fall.

I plugged in Myles Murphy's measurables at his Pro Day into the RAS calculator, and the comp came up as Rashan Gary. Pro Day results are inflated, but a 4.51 40 and 1.59 10 yd split at 6'5" 268 is impressive.

From a Packers perspective I have the board as something like this:

1 Will Anderson
2 Jalen Carter*
3 Tyree Wilson
4 Myles Murphy
5 Peter Skoronski
6 Lukas Van Ness
7 Paris Johnson
8 Christian Gonzalez**
9 Devon Witherspoon**

If those 9 are gone, then you are looking at JSN and Bryan Bresee--or possibly Kincaid, Mayer, or Broderick Jones.

*character concerns might push him down or off the Packers board.
**I'm just finishing up LBs and haven't gotten to CBs, but from what I've seen so far, I'll probably have Gonzalez or Witherspoon as the #1 CB.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I think JSN benefits from this being a weak WR class. Think about last year: Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson, George Pickens, Skyy Moore. Where would the JSN rank amongst that group? That was the year to draft a WR in the late first or early second because there were so many good WR prospects available. I feel like this year's group will get overdrafted. You have JSN--who may not rank in the top 5 last year. Quentin Johnston has a lot of question marks--similar to Burks. After that are a bunch of small WRs (Flowers, Downs, Addison, Hyatt all weigh 182 pounds or less).

I'm convinced Gute goes EDGE (Murphy, Van Ness), OT (Skoronski, Johnson) or CB (Gonzalez or Witherspoon) in round 1. Then, he hits WR and TE hard for the next few rounds. Tillman, Mingo, Rice, Wilson are a better fit and you can get them in rounds 2-3 and come back with tall, athletic WRs (Ford-Wheaton, Landers, DuBose, Iosivas) in rounds 4-5. Take a TE with a 2nd or 3rd round pick and then draft a second TE later in the draft.

Here's what I'd love:

1 EDGE Myles Murphy or Lukas Van Ness
2a TE Luke Musgrave
2b WR Cedric Tillman or Jonathan Mingo
3 CB Julius Brents or Darius Rush
4a TE Zack Kuntz or Josh Wyhle
4b OT Nick Saldiveri or a safety
5 WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Matt Landers, or Grant DuBose

Then, give me Hunter Luepke with a 7th (more likely, a trade up into round 5-6 to get him).

[HarveyWallbangers]

Ivan Pace. Guys like Ivan Pace are why I love watching film of these guys. I'm watching off ball LBs. Sanders is fairly impressive. I thought Campbell would look better on film. Simpson did nothing in the 2 games I've watched so far. Henley, Williams, Overshown, Pappoe are coverage LBs. They all look the same. Sewell, To'oTo'o, Herbig are meh. Then, I get to Pace. Such a fun watch. Dude is 5'11" 231, didn't test that great, but he's a football player. Tenacious, looks faster than he tested. Reminds of me of Denzel Perryman. Ivan Pace, bringing back the fun as I'm watching LBs. He's like the Deuce Vaughn of LBs.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Here is my draft spreadsheet... for anybody that is interested. It would be fun to get other people on board. I feel like Nutz would be great at evaluating OL/DL. Run has great takes, and others that I don't mean to exclude. I don't know if I can do this for every player at every position in the years to come. This has been exhaustive, but I guess that's the benefit of being divorced.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[ThunderDan]

Here is my draft spreadsheet... for anybody that is interested. It would be fun to get other people on board. I feel like Nutz would be great at evaluating OL/DL. Run has great takes, and others that I don't mean to exclude. I don't know if I can do this for every player at every position in the years to come. This has been exhaustive, but I guess that's the benefit of being divorced.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

That is truly impressive.

[Fritz]

Here is my draft spreadsheet... for anybody that is interested. It would be fun to get other people on board. I feel like Nutz would be great at evaluating OL/DL. Run has great takes, and others that I don't mean to exclude. I don't know if I can do this for every player at every position in the years to come. This has been exhaustive, but I guess that's the benefit of being divorced.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Holy smokes, Harv. That is impressive as all get-out.

I wonder if Guter sneaks onto Packerrats and downloads this thing....

[Sparkey]

Here is my draft spreadsheet... for anybody that is interested. It would be fun to get other people on board. I feel like Nutz would be great at evaluating OL/DL. Run has great takes, and others that I don't mean to exclude. I don't know if I can do this for every player at every position in the years to come. This has been exhaustive, but I guess that's the benefit of being divorced.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Awesome stuff Harvey!

[run pMc]

Here is my draft spreadsheet... for anybody that is interested. It would be fun to get other people on board. I feel like Nutz would be great at evaluating OL/DL. Run has great takes, and others that I don't mean to exclude. I don't know if I can do this for every player at every position in the years to come. This has been exhaustive, but I guess that's the benefit of being divorced.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

As others have said, this is impressive -- nice job!
I've been looking at Tyler Brooke's big board and Paul Noonan's WROPS spreadsheets as well. Interesting to see how things overlap.
Agree with your take on the WRs and how JSN stacks up against last year's. I think they go EDGE or OT in R1. Almost all the highly touted WR prospects are smaller guys and I have trouble seeing them draft a WR under 190 pounds much less 200.
CB is an interesting take -- their secondary is weirdly misshapen with 3 good outside CBs and no good full-time safety. Gute says Rasul is an outside corner, which tells me Stokes is going to take more time to recover.

Van Ness scares me a bit because he wasn't even a starter for Iowa, but he's raw and toolsy and reminds of Gary in that regard. Maybe after Mike Neal and Vince Biegel they've figured out how to develop EDGEs.
Murphy feels like a potential Preston v2.0 pick and I wouldn't mind him but I wonder if he's a better fit as a 4-3 DE.
One guy I've watched a bit that I like is Isaiah Foskey. Has slipped into R2 but I like him.

I'll have to check out Pace. Some of those guys will fall because of size, etc. but at a minimum they can often play feisty right away on special teams.

[HarveyWallbangers]

LB Jeremy Banks, Tennessee vs Purdue is really good tape. He'd probably be a day 2 guy for me without character issues. Apparently, he's a complete turd. He got kicked off the team. They let him back on the team. He had a monster 2021 season with 128 tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks. I guess he became a problem again this year after Tennessee started losing some games. Late for meetings. Things like that. Hendon Hooker admonished him for it. Banks didn't take kindly to that and go into it with the backup QB.

[Joemailman]

Does Jordan Addison's RAS eliminate him from consideration from Packers?

[run pMc]

Not necessarily. If he plays out of the slot. Slot receivers often have lower RAS scores.
What does eliminate him is his size. He's a tick under 6' and weighs 175 pounds soaking wet. I think if he was190 he'd be talked about as a top 15 pick. Smaller receivers struggle to stay healthy and survive a 17 game season.

[Joemailman]

LB Jeremy Banks, Tennessee vs Purdue is really good tape. He'd probably be a day 2 guy for me without character issues. Apparently, he's a complete turd. He got kicked off the team. They let him back on the team. He had a monster 2021 season with 128 tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks. I guess he became a problem again this year after Tennessee started losing some games. Late for meetings. Things like that. Hendon Hooker admonished him for it. Banks didn't take kindly to that and go into it with the backup QB.

Packers tend to avoid the Vontaze Burflicts.

[Fritz]

And probably rightly so. Part of why they're so good is that they really have very few boundaries as human beings, so they're just super aggressive and can be effective. But you can't fit within a system being that person, not for too long. Not that the NFL is full of upstanding citizens, but you have to at least be willing to conform to societal expectations in some ways.

[Joemailman]

Packers hosting Georgia Tech EDGE Keion White on a visit. At 285 pounds, he's really big for an EDGE rusher. Harvey has him as a 2-3 round pick. https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com...23/keion-white has him as a mid-2nd round pick, which would fit in very well with where the Packers are picking.

[Fritz]

Keion, Keion likes his money. He makes a lot, they say. Spends his days counting, in a garage, by the motorway.