Hits and Misses from the 2023 NFL Draft 1st Round

[Deputy Nutz]

Hits
The Texans: Knowing what you want and making it happen. They need a QB and they want the top rated edge rusher and they make it happen and they intelligently use their own 2nd pick to take Stroud, and then trade to #3 and take Anderson. Pretty brilliant move. I respect teams that make bold moves in the draft.

The Eagles: Moving around slightly to get into the top 10 and taking maybe the biggest question mark in the draft in Jalen Carter, but a team like the Eagles can take a swing at Carter and hope having him surrounded with Georgia dudes and a hard nose winning culture will keep him motivated because if he is good luck running the ball against that front. Also holding pat at 30 and getting Nolan Smith. Huge upside but his overall size might be a question mark, but at the very least you only burn a 30th pick if he becomes only a situational edge rusher in the league.

The Pats: Hey moving back and landing Gonzalez is a huge get. Now why he fell that far out of the top is a bit of a head scratcher. I think the Pats have to be excited that he was there and that the moved back to get him.

The Cardinals: Staying at 6 and drafting Paris Johnson was remarkable demonstration of patients and making a level headed decision. Johnson seems to be the most complete plug and play tackle in the draft. He is an obvious left tackle going into training camp, where other tackles in this draft all have question marks if they can play left tackle.

Misses

The Lions: Great job moving back in the draft and getting picks. What in the hell is with taking an underweight running back with the 12th pick of the draft. They simply have too many holes to take a running back this high in the draft. They need receivers, cornerbacks, another edge rusher, possibly a future QB. The Lions are going to Lion, it's why they will continue to swim in the toilet bowl.

The Lions: I like Jack Campbell, I don't love him he isn't the next coming of Brian Urlacher or Ray Lewis, but he is a solid piece in the middle. He isn't the 18th pick in the draft though. Its hard to really comprehend all of this nonsense surrounding the draft and what draft boards are quality and which are garbage, but on no big board or mock draft did I see Campbell going this high. My own eye test on him had me believing he was a quality second round pick.

The Falcons: Nonsense taking Robinson with the 8th pick of the draft. I knew some team was going to make this mistake and I probably figured it was going to be the Falcons or the Cardinals, or the Commanders. The Lions actually make this pick look good when the selected Gibbs. This is not a running back league. There are too many quality backs that can be had in the middle rounds. The injuries and the life span of an NFL back does equate to high end first round pick.

The Packers: Not sure why Gute made such a big deal about the 13th pick if all you were going to do was take a defensive end that is raw. I like Van Ness similar to the way I like Jack Campbell, I like them enough to trade back and hope the are still there. If not I move on. Obviously you need a trade partner and the Packers might not have had one. The Packers have too many holes to use the 13th selection on a future pass rusher. He isn't going to play over Gary or Smith in 2023. He will get some snaps but this isn't a pick that is going to have a huge impact in 2023. The offense still lacks weapons and there is obviously a strategy in drafts for the Packers, they pretty much only take defensive players in the first round. I don't understand it and I really would like to hear the insight on why. I don't care for the nonsense about their board or how the draft fell. I struggled putting this as a miss, because his sisters are complete smoke shows and they will be strutting around GB for a while.

The Bills: I don't like trading up for Kincaid. I think he is one dimensional as tight end at the moment and obviously they are ok with that. I don't think the move was a back breaker, but they way this draft was unfolding it seemed that you could stay pat and get your guy.

The Commanders: Emmanuel Forbes has great speed and coverage abilities but he is under 170 pounds. Small Corners are usually around 185 pounds in the NFL. With Gonzalez on the board it seems like an interest reach for Forbes. I think he will be fine if he can manage to stay healthy.

The Jets: I love the fact that Will McDonald is a hometown kid. I coach with one of his high school coaches and its a great story with many connections. I just didn't see any board with him this high. I think he has the most potential of all the edges in this draft, but the laugh is really on Rodgers, he jumps from the Packers who seem to only take defensive players to the Jets who then take an edge rusher. They also have like 3 or 4 edge rushers already under contract.

[Fritz]

Yeah, the Loins were a real head-scratcher last night. First they pass on Jalen Carter and trade down, though they pick up draft picks galore and were loaded for bear - still are, with three in the second round. So you can say, "hey, great job loading up, Loins," but then they use those first round picks on . . . an undersized running back and a solid inside linebacker. The Brad Holmes comment, something about "you gotta follow your own board even if no one else agrees" gave me hope that the Loins are still gonna Loin, because that quote reminded me of their last know-it-all GM, Bob Quinn, from New England, who said something similar when he drafted Jahlani Tavai in the second round in 2019.

It was weird seeing the shots of their war room after they drafted that running back from Alabama. They were acting like they'd just pulled off a Brinks heist.

[Deputy Nutz]

Remember folks, Johnathan Taylor went in the second round. He had a great two years and his 3rd year was plagued by injury. Taylor is better than any of these backs taken in the first round, but you are going to lose games and seasons with running backs due to injury and that should de-value them.

[Joemailman]

I don't see Van Ness as a miss. I see him as a solid pick in a not very great 1st round. I would have liked to trade down but I don't think much of an offer was there. Gute said the phones were quieter than usual last night. I think the second round is where the value is at in thus draft. I think tonight will be much more interesting than last night.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I’m fine with the Van Ness pick. He didn’t seem that raw. High pressure rate and good against the run already. I liked Murphy a bit more, but oh well.

[Deputy Nutz]

It's not about Van Ness, it is about what else was available.

[run pMc]

It's not about Van Ness, it is about what else was available.

Which sounds like you had a specific draft crush available at 13 that GB didn't grab. Is that the case? If so, who?
I look at who was drafted after Van Ness and aside from Gonzalez or maybe Broderick Jones there isn't one who stands out as better. JSN too, I guess, but I think you can find a good slot WR in R2. I agree with Joe that Day 2 will be more interesting, and I'd expect them to look at offense (and a DL, probably).

[Fosco33]

I’m fine w/ Hercules as Gary will be coming off injury anyways. Plan for life after Preston.

[red]

i have no clue why so many are freaked out over van ness, other then the mock draft they looked at didn't have him ranked as high as some others

one of the sites i've loved fr over a decade had him as the #5 prospect in the draft

https://draftace.com/2023-top-100/

he gives rating to players every year. this year only 5 guys got ratings of 90 or higher, van ness was one of them

and for thosw that thought we needed to draft the OSU WR. athlon sports had him as the 5th best WR in the draft

95% of mock drafts out there are all just based on each other, and none of them are based one what nfl GMs really are going to do

[run pMc]

I think HOU going back up for Anderson was an overpay. That 2024 R1 pick is going to be a high pick. Not sure it's worth it.

[Packgator]

one of the sites i've loved fr over a decade had him as the #5 prospect in the draft

this year only 5 guys got ratings of 90 or higher, van ness was one of them

Nice find. That site also has Tucker Kraft ranked as the #4 TE, two spots ahead of Musgrave. The bad news is they have Reed as the #20 WR.

[Deputy Nutz]

I’m fine with the Van Ness pick. He didn’t seem that raw. High pressure rate and good against the run already. I liked Murphy a bit more, but oh well.

I don't hate the player, I hate the game. As the Rumors go, the Packers held up the deal with the Jets because they wanted the 13th pick. Now the draft board might have fallen a certain way and they missed the guy they really wanted, but to go from the 15th to the 13th pick and get Van Ness seems like a wasted effort.

[run pMc]

Rumor is at least two other teams were looking at Van Ness in the teens, so I don't think it was a reach. I'm not sure if he was their first choice though.
It's kind of an eye of the beholder thing with Van Ness vs. Murphy or some of the other players available. He's an ok pick.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I don't hate the player, I hate the game. As the Rumors go, the Packers held up the deal with the Jets because they wanted the 13th pick. Now the draft board might have fallen a certain way and they missed the guy they really wanted, but to go from the 15th to the 13th pick and get Van Ness seems like a wasted effort.

Not really. Rumors were that the Pats liked Van Ness. The Pats stayed on the clock until the Packers picked, and then they traded out of that spot, so it's likely they wanted Van Ness. Not only that but the Jets took a pass rusher. Who's to say they didn't like Van Ness more than McDonald.

[Deputy Nutz]

He isn't the next coming of JJ Watt. There were several defensive edge players in this draft. Obviously the Jets felt comfortable enough to take McDonald. Not to mention Murphy falling in the draft which I think both Harv and I both liked as the 2nd or 3rd best edge in this draft.

[Upnorth]

Upon further review while he may not b the most nfl ready, he is close, and everyone more ready have more wear on their tires. Dude is young and has massive upside. Speed power rusher (like gary) to limit temporary loss of Gary. Gives us ability to reduce over working Gary early with less reduction to pass rush. Then when Gary is ready we can rotate with confidence.

I'm much higher on him now than Thursday

[Bretsky]

Jonathon Taylor in round two is a reminder that aj Dillon there is just ok. I thing gb did a very good job this year. But I do agree in the trade back in round one and I am not fond of the kicker pick and his pedigree

[Fritz]

The Loins had a weird draft. They seemed genius-like in trading back and getting so damn many second round picks, but then they picked . . . a running back. And not even the first one off the board. Their other second round pick was also a reach, I think. But they seemed to do well with the twelve million second-round picks they had.