Official Training Camp Thread

[run pMc]

Thanks for posting. A few thoughts (not being nitpicky, just my own opinions):

I think Tom Brady skews things.
I also agree that more JAG QBs made it that far pre 2010 because of league rules and the emphasis on the passing game.
Back in the 80's a strong defense and running game would get you far. I'd expect more RBs drafted high back then.

Many of those QBs aren't JAGs... they may not have been elite but they were top 10-12. Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair for example. Earl Morrall won MVP in 68.
I think the number on Gary Kubiak is iffy, if he played that many it was as a kneel-down/mop-up QB. Might be the case with a few others.

[SudsMcBucky]

I have not been keeping up very well with that side of things, Suds. What's the cap implication if they wanted to trade him this season?

This year he count $21MM against the cap if we keep him. If we trade him, it's a $38MM hit. NEXT year is when he goes, because if he stays on at his current contact, his hit would be $40MM, but if we cut/trade him next year, our hit would be $19MM.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Thanks for posting. A few thoughts (not being nitpicky, just my own opinions):

I think Tom Brady skews things.
I also agree that more JAG QBs made it that far pre 2010 because of league rules and the emphasis on the passing game.
Back in the 80's a strong defense and running game would get you far. I'd expect more RBs drafted high back then.

Many of those QBs aren't JAGs... they may not have been elite but they were top 10-12. Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair for example. Earl Morrall won MVP in 68.
I think the number on Gary Kubiak is iffy, if he played that many it was as a kneel-down/mop-up QB. Might be the case with a few others.

I completely agree with the parts where you completely agree with me. And the rest looks OK

I wish I had a more complete list because the JAGs and recents are skewed towards 1-2 appearances. Perhaps I will put my unpaid Mexican intern on the task.

But the list does contain one shocking reveal: a QB named David Humm played in 4 Championship games. The hummer references must have sucked.

[Harlan Huckleby]

PS. I assume the list is for starting QBs. Otherwise it would be overrun with clipboard holders.

[bobblehead]

When you move the goalposts (2 appearances) you have lost the argument.

[bobblehead]

Since recent history is most relevant to this year I go back to my point. Last 6 Owls had Stafford, Over the Hill Brady, Jimmy G, Goff, and Nick Foles.

I would argue that clearly 3 of those guys are flat out not good while 1 is borderline top 10. Brady is brady, but he wasn't peak Brady by that point either. Last year had Hurts, rounding out the last 6 and until he shows me another season like last I'm not crowning him the second coming yet either.

[Harlan Huckleby]

When you move the goalposts (2 appearances) you have lost the argument.

Looking at multiple appearances just clarifies the trends, doesn't move goalposts. I'd like to see a complete set of stats, including single appearances.
You cited some incidental cases, which may or may not reflect overall trends.

If you believe that the NFL has become a less QB-centric league (or stayed about the same over the years) you are entitled to that dubious opinion. I'm even open to the possibility that you are right.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Last 6 Owls had Stafford, Over the Hill Brady, Jimmy G, Goff, and Nick Foles.

I missed this because "OWLS" doesn't mean anything to me. I don't consider aging Stafford or Brady JAGS, they were still masterful, and Foles was playing great. You're right there is some Big JAG energy there, but doesn't prove anything.

[call_me_ishmael]

Tom can not be kept on the bench. His is unquestionably one of the top 5 (3). For my money I try to get a 2nd for Bak and start Yosh at LT, Tom at RT. Its a downgrade, but if Yosh doesn't take that final step you have draft capital to get your LT of the future instead of desperately trying to rework Bak's deal in the offseason. You also get younger either way.

I also don't want to piss off a young guy who has earned a starting spot. Not unless you have had some real serious conversations with him and you are positive he sees the big picture.

I would do this too I think, but the counterpoint and thing to keep is mind is how many young QBs just get ruined by bad OL. If they think JLo is Mr. World wide, I think they keep Bak. If they think they are going to be picking a QB high in 2025, i think they ship him off. I would imagine they have a very good idea by now and we will learn a lot about what they think they have in JLo by the age of the players they keep around him.

[Fritz]

If ol' Sudsy is right about the cap hit, sure seems Bakh will be around until after the season.

Ish, you make a good point - I think some potentially very good, young quarterbacks may have been ruined by being tossed into the fire without a good offensive line, too early in their QB careers, and become jumpy and skittish as a result. A kind of PTSD.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Ish, you make a good point - I think some potentially very good, young quarterbacks may have been ruined by being tossed into the fire without a good offensive line, too early in their QB careers, and become jumpy and skittish as a result. A kind of PTSD.

Kinda like Joey Harrington. Coulda been great like Julius Caesar. But the Motor City Eminem’s OL was almost as incompetent at protecting Harrington as Caesar’s body guards were on 15 March, 44 BC. The OL pretty much assassinated every ounce of Harrington’s confidence at playing QB.

Btw, Peyton Manning was in cold, dark and dull Green Bay yesterday to catch a Packers practice. We all know how entitled the Mannings are. Ali refused to play for the Whale Vagina Chargers. Peyton refused to workout for a single NFC team upon his release from the, pardon my German, Kultaz.

Manning scouting cold, dark and dull Green Bay for his nephew, hotshot QB Archibald?

[run pMc]

It's definitely a QB centric league now. Getting to the conference championship as a JAG QB means you're on an incredible hot streak or the team has other things going for it, like dynamic playmakers or a killer defense.
I think throwing a rookie out as a starter -- especially if they don't have a good supporting cast or a good coach -- is a recipe for disaster. I think you almost have to sit them a year so they can learn the offense and how to be a pro.
It's a tough position to play well from the mental side, and I think that's why so many young talented QBs bust.

[Harlan Huckleby]

It's definitely a QB centric league now. Getting to the conference championship as a JAG QB means you're on an incredible hot streak or the team has other things going for it, like dynamic playmakers or a killer defense.

ding ding ding
I thought 2010 was a kinda inflection point and that looks right


How Important is the Quarterback Position for Winning a Super Bowl?

There have been a few memorable playoff JAGS the past couple years, but recency bias distorts the long term trends.

It would be interesting to see how QB salaries (relative to other positions) has varied over decades.
I seriously doubt that GMs today see surrounding a game manager with great defense etc is a smart strategy. But perhaps a stopgap for some teams.

[bobblehead]

In a changing world recency bias is very relevant. We have done this argument to death over the years and we have had a top 3 QB most of them and one Owl appearance to show for it. And that chart means not so much since league ranking of the QB takes a lot of things into factor. It also shows the "winning QB of the superb owl", not the 4 QBs in the championship game.

I'm not arguing that you WANT a bad QB, I'm just saying that great D and a well balanced team is MORE important than a top 5 QB...especially in a one year window of rankings. Flacco, Dilfer, Foles, Jimmy G, Krapernick and I could go on, have all had Owl wins and appearances. They are not great QBs. Yes, Maholmes, Brady, Brees have also won. Having a great QB gives you an edge, but having a great D is more important. How many Owls did Brady win with a D outside the top 10??

[bobblehead]

If ol' Sudsy is right about the cap hit, sure seems Bakh will be around until after the season.

Ish, you make a good point - I think some potentially very good, young quarterbacks may have been ruined by being tossed into the fire without a good offensive line, too early in their QB careers, and become jumpy and skittish as a result. A kind of PTSD.

I'm not positive, but I think that cutting Bak now (post June 1) is not much different than next offseason. Trade would be same effect. I also get Ish's point about giving Love the best chance to succeed, but long term that could be argued for trading Bak now. An Oline of Yosh, Elgon, Myers, Runyan, Tom would be top 10 still. And again, all the draft capital we would enter 2024 draft with would land us the next Bak if necessary.

I think they haven't gotten a good offer yet. They want to have him dominate for about 5-6 weeks, assess our own injuries and such, then if it makes sense they can still move him for a premium pick.

[Harlan Huckleby]

And that chart means not so much since league ranking of the QB takes a lot of things into factor. It also shows the "winning QB of the superb owl", not the 4 QBs in the championship game.

The argument is not about any particular measure. There is not a perfect stat. There are dozens of indicators one can think of to show the importance of the QB position. I thought the 4 Championship QBs cast a good broad net. I thought to look for 2x JAGS because it says a lot about the era the guy played in.

If you think that a top defense is more important than a top QB that is a plausible theory. My perception is that it is 1980s, 1990s thinking. There are many stats to look at. Somebody with a lot of research time could build a case one way or another. I've asked Pepe to get on it but he was non-responsive.

[run pMc]

Based on that, I see 6 QB outside the top 10 who won in ~35 years. I think those really low ranking winners (below 20) were Dilfer, E.Manning, and N.Foles? There's one I'm not sure is correct -- 2007. I don't recall Peyton being bad that year. Even if he was, I sure wouldn't call pre-2010 Peyton "JAG level".

Interesting article, noting how most SB winning teams are top 10 in O and D, and the QB usually takes up 10-12% of the salary cap space.

Agree about a GM going the game manager and great defense route as a strategy, not unless you know your defense is truly elite and your window very tight/short. Defense has higher year-over-year variation in performance than offense. Your best bet to having success is with a good offense, and the QB drives a lot of that.

[run pMc]

I'm not arguing that you WANT a bad QB, I'm just saying that great D and a well balanced team is MORE important than a top 5 QB...especially in a one year window of rankings. Flacco, Dilfer, Foles, Jimmy G, Krapernick and I could go on, have all had Owl wins and appearances. They are not great QBs. Yes, Maholmes, Brady, Brees have also won. Having a great QB gives you an edge, but having a great D is more important. How many Owls did Brady win with a D outside the top 10??

I don't 100% agree with this. I think a top 5 QB gets you to the playoffs -- there are enough bad defenses where if you have a great QB and good offense you'll win a lot of games. In the playoffs you're going to run into good/great defenses, that is almost a certainty in the conf championship game and SB. A top 5 QB can sometimes overcome that as well. I do agree that the vast majority of SB winning teams have good offenses AND good defenses - i.e., they are as you say "a well balanced team".

There are plenty of teams who are good on only one side of the ball who get picked apart on any given Sunday. I still think in the current NFL offense tops defense because of how the passing/QB rules are... so if one side of the ball was to be average and the other top 5, I'd prefer the offense to be top 5. I 100% agree that a shitty defense probably won't get you to a SB, much less win one. JMO

[run pMc]

An Oline of Yosh, Elgon, Myers, Runyan, Tom would be top 10 still.

I think Bakhtiari, when healthy, is considerably better than Njiman. I think if DB is healthy they can be top 5-8, without him they fall out of the top 10, maybe to about 12. Myers is a concern also, some plays he's all-world, others he's barely rosterable.
Love should be given a chance to play behind the best OL possible, at least to start. GB's schedule isn't considered tough early, so if they start out hot they could stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. If they fall out of contention by the deadline or the NYJ make a knockout offer for him then you consider moving on, but I'd think they will wait until the October 31 trade deadline to make that decision. There is little incentive for GB to trade Bakhtiari away at this point, or do the JetPacks any favors with conditional picks... I say make them sweeten any deal.

Speaking of Love, based on camp reports, it sounds like he's not hot garbage. Seems like he is generally making good decisions and mostly good throws. His accuracy isn't Rodgers-level, but if he isn't a turnover machine he could get this team to 8-9 wins. I think he's going to have a lot of highs and lows this year, my hope is he gets better and more consistent as the season goes on.

Also sounds like the WRs look good. Jayden Reed has looked better in camp than OTAs, and Watson/Doubs/Toure are looking good. Those are your top 4 WRs Week 1.

[call_me_ishmael]

Sounds like Davante Wyatt is going to be a monster.

https://www.reddit.com/r/GreenBayPac...devonte_wyatt/