FORECASTING THE FUTURE: FLASH FORWAD TO 2025

[call_me_ishmael]

I would love to see data on how often a QB survives a GM change. Same with a coach. I doubt very many QBs make it more than a year or two with a new GM coming in. We have two examples here with Brett and Aaron though.

[run pMc]

I would love to see data on how often a QB survives a GM change. Same with a coach. I doubt very many QBs make it more than a year or two with a new GM coming in. We have two examples here with Brett and Aaron though.

Favre and Rodgers had won SBs and MVPs by the time GMs changed. I'd say it's uncommon for a QB to survive a GM change but it does happen.

Barring injury or continued dropoff in performance (based on games 1 to 5) Love is your starter this year and at least half of next year. MLF gets this year and next to show team development and growth or he could be out. I'm not sure how long his contract goes, but that could be a factor.

Love's accuracy (or lack thereof) is a concern for me, I haven't seen enough but the signs are there that he's probably not a good long term answer as a franchise QB you want to fork over $30M+ per year for. I think they draft a QB next year and have him sit and learn and then hopefully start (or present a good challenge) in 2025. If they get cap solvent by 2025 - as they should - they could also be players in FA or trade for a veteran QB who has worn out his welcome elsewhere.

MLF seems like he has a good offensive mind and I think he's a smart guy, but I wonder if he's more a scheme teacher than a fundamentals and details guy that a young team might need. Some of his game planning is not great either.
Ask yourself - how many draft picks have actually improved under MLF, and how many were just good from the get-go and either plateaued or got worse since rookie year? GB is a draft-and-develop team- they need a GM who can draft talent, and coaches who can develop that talent into good players.

MLF's seat should be safe this year, but both his and Love's will be very warm next year. I think the expectations are low this year but go up considerably next year, and by 2025 a SB window could open if things line up.

[Sparkey]

Favre and Rodgers had won SBs and MVPs by the time GMs changed. I'd say it's uncommon for a QB to survive a GM change but it does happen.

Barring injury or continued dropoff in performance (based on games 1 to 5) Love is your starter this year and at least half of next year. MLF gets this year and next to show team development and growth or he could be out. I'm not sure how long his contract goes, but that could be a factor.

Love's accuracy (or lack thereof) is a concern for me, I haven't seen enough but the signs are there that he's probably not a good long term answer as a franchise QB you want to fork over $30M+ per year for. I think they draft a QB next year and have him sit and learn and then hopefully start (or present a good challenge) in 2025. If they get cap solvent by 2025 - as they should - they could also be players in FA or trade for a veteran QB who has worn out his welcome elsewhere.

MLF seems like he has a good offensive mind and I think he's a smart guy, but I wonder if he's more a scheme teacher than a fundamentals and details guy that a young team might need. Some of his game planning is not great either.
Ask yourself - how many draft picks have actually improved under MLF, and how many were just good from the get-go and either plateaued or got worse since rookie year? GB is a draft-and-develop team- they need a GM who can draft talent, and coaches who can develop that talent into good players.

MLF's seat should be safe this year, but both his and Love's will be very warm next year. I think the expectations are low this year but go up considerably next year, and by 2025 a SB window could open if things line up.

Is his accuracy a concern ? Of course, but the play of his o-line is a bigger concern. Josh Allen's accuracy was pretty bad his first two years.

[run pMc]

Is his accuracy a concern ? Of course, but the play of his o-line is a bigger concern. Josh Allen's accuracy was pretty bad his first two years.

His best year in college was 64% completion rate. Every QB drafted in Round 1 next year will be better than that for their career.
Bo Nix (who I don't care for as a prospect) is completing 79% of his passes this year. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...3-leaders.html

His completion rate is several points below what it should be (xCOMP)
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/p...tionPercentage

Jordan's arm strength and ability to play off-schedule were considered positive traits, his accuracy (or lack of) was not. Interception concerns his final year were explained away by being surrounded by an atrocious supporting cast.
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jordan...c-ce231b05c522

Unusually spotty ball placement forced targets to work for catches
Completed just 31.8 percent of his deep throws

Josh Allen is a unicorn case. Before him, there were basically no cases of a QB dramatically improving their accuracy after being drafted. He did it by basically revamping his throwing fundamentals from the ground up over a full offseason. I am skeptical Jordan Love will do that. In Jordan's defense, I think he's worked on his game and improved a lot since being drafted, but he still has plenty of improvement to do if he wants to be the long term starter in GB.