2022 Second Round Pick, #34, Christian Watson Discussion Thread

[texaspackerbacker]

He hasn't needed to be WR1. Doubs, Wicks, and Reed have sort of over-performed and combined to fill that role or looking at it another way, Love has done a Rodgers-esque of spreading it around or looking at it in a negative way, Love can't throw it deep with enough consistency to take advantage of Watson's speed.

I pretty much agree with your assessment of him.

[RashanGary]

I think worst case he plays 8 years in the league (31 years old.) That’s when his explosiveness will go way down and his speed will drop off a bit too.

While he’s young, he does enough things well to play in the league and be an 800 yard guy. Maybe more once or twice.

He’s fast. He’s explosive. He’s a good blocker. He’s a good locker room guy. He’s smart, so as Love starts building more complexity with the more veteran offense, Watson will only get better. So he does a lot of things well.

He’s always going to be a guy who can clear a safety. Against man defense, he’s always going to be a guy who can fly across the field on long crossers and no one can keep up on those routes. In a dome where there is less wind, he can kinda track the ball too.

But, he’s not, has never been, and I don’t think ever will be a strong hands guy or good at tracking the ball outside. He’s been too consistently the same guy in college and the NFL and I don’t think those are traits we’re going to see go away. So he’ll always be limited and always be disappointing at times.

Better than MVS, but closer to MVS than Tyreek Hill.

Love’s contract is going to be top 5 QB money. Probably 49M per year. But that contract is going to average in the last year of his current deal so it’ll be 5 years 42M per year average.

With the quickly increasing salary cap, that will be very affordable. I think we can afford to keep Watson around on the middle of the road contract he’ll demand. That take the top off quality and the man beater speed and the blocking…. He’s a nice piece.

I don’t expect him to be great. If you’re looking for a reliable #1, Jayden Reed is that guy.

[texaspackerbacker]

Tyreek Hill is not the comparison. That would be Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson for Watson. Yeah, he obviously ain't there yet, but I think he potentially could be down the road.

I agree about Love's future status and salary, and I'm all for it.

[RashanGary]

Tyreek Hill is not the comparison. That would be Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson for Watson. Yeah, he obviously ain't there yet, but I think he potentially could be down the road.

I agree about Love's future status and salary, and I'm all for it.

Moss is one of the greatest players to ever play the game. I don’t even know if speed was his top trait. His top trait might have been how unstoppable he was at adjusting, getting position and then snagging the 50/50 ball. Watson will NEVER be even a poor man’s Randy Moss. That’s not who he is. It’s not.

[texaspackerbacker]

Oh, I wouldn't be so sure hahahaha. I didn't say he'd be as good as Moss, but he's the same kind of player, and it wouldn't surprise me if he came close.

[bobblehead]

He hasn't needed to be WR1. Doubs, Wicks, and Reed have sort of over-performed and combined to fill that role or looking at it another way, Love has done a Rodgers-esque of spreading it around or looking at it in a negative way, Love can't throw it deep with enough consistency to take advantage of Watson's speed.

I pretty much agree with your assessment of him.

Rodgers hasn't "spread the ball around" like Love is in about 8 years. He locks in on Adams, and when Adams was gone he sucked ass all year. More like spreading around like a YOUNG Rodgers did.

[bobblehead]

Moss is one of the greatest players to ever play the game. I don’t even know if speed was his top trait. His top trait might have been how unstoppable he was at adjusting, getting position and then snagging the 50/50 ball. Watson will NEVER be even a poor man’s Randy Moss. That’s not who he is. It’s not.

Moss was the fastest player in the league most years he played.

That said, Mike Evans is the best comp for Watson. Faster than Evans, but similar. I see a slew of 1k to 1200 yard seasons in his future, but never 90 catches.

[RashanGary]

Moss was the fastest player in the league most years he played.

That said, Mike Evans is the best comp for Watson. Faster than Evans, but similar. I see a slew of 1k to 1200 yard seasons in his future, but never 90 catches.

I’m going to go hard against this comp. Evans is surprisingly effective at getting early separation for a big guy. And he snags tight contested throws at a very high rate.

I see a body type comp. I could see Watson being about 215, maybe even 220 in his prime. But that’s where that comp ends. Watson is horrible on contested balls. And average to below at getting early separation.

With Watsons weaknesses, I don’t see him going over 1,100 EVER. He looks like a #2, #3 sort of splash guy who disappoints a lot of the time.

[texaspackerbacker]

Moss was the fastest player in the league most years he played.

That said, Mike Evans is the best comp for Watson. Faster than Evans, but similar. I see a slew of 1k to 1200 yard seasons in his future, but never 90 catches.

This must be your acorn for the day hahahaha. Yes, I agree with the Mike Evans comparison - for now. Going forward, I'd say that's about the low end for Watson - not a bad low end. I guess Moss may have been the fastest in the league. How many faster than Watson are there now? Not many I suspect, and probably none of them 6'5" or so.

As I said, with all those other really good receivers, Watson may not need to catch 90 or more.

[run pMc]

I'm with RG on this one. He's not Evans, who is both physical and fast, and he's not Moss or Tyreek either.
He's built like Moss and fast like Moss, but he doesn't have the games of Moss, Evans or Hill.

They can spread the ball around, yes yes fine. I don't think Doubs is more than a WR3, Wicks is a WR2 at best unless he develops into Davante 2.0, and Reed is a slot guy... so he's not a WR1 either -- he'll be off the field in 12 personnel and Doubs/Watson will get the snaps.
It becomes a situation where you don't have a top wideout. Maybe they can get away with that... but the fact is Gute spent 2 R2 picks to draft him so you'd hope he could develop into a WR1.

I have doubts he'll get there. To be clear, I don't think he was a bad pick or that he's a poor player. I think he won't reach his full potential... few players do.

Right now Watson is closer to Torrey Smith or MVS than a top 10 WR. Comparing him to something like Mike Evans (who was a 1000yd receiver as a rookie, and has been every year since) is crazy.
The development curve for him is bigger coming from NDSU, he didn't have contested catch opportunities there, he didn't have to run much of a route tree. He's lean muscle-- he's almost like a track athlete. He still has to learn how to build up his body and take care of it as a pro player. He might figure all that out and be a great receiver, but probability is against it. He might be 'good' and I guess it's a question of whether that's enough given what they gave up to get him.

[Joemailman]

The guy I thought he might be was Javon Walker. He may still get there if he can stay healthy.

[RashanGary]

I’m usually mostly in agreement with the things you see, runPMC, but I’m not sure I’m with you on reed being strictly a slot. Antonio Brown, Greg Jennings and Steve Smith are examples of smaller guys being legit #1 receivers. He had a higher ceiling than a 2 down slot receiver.

[texaspackerbacker]

It's probably true that we don't have a true #1 WR right now. I'd say we don't really need one. I'd also say what we have is better - a loaded group, maybe the best top four or even five we've ever had, and if you include the TEs, the situation is even more loaded, maybe tops in the NFL. IMO, Watson will be the best of the bunch and among the best WRs in the league, but because the whole group is so good, he may not ever have top of the league numbers.

[bobblehead]

I’m going to go hard against this comp. Evans is surprisingly effective at getting early separation for a big guy. And he snags tight contested throws at a very high rate.

I see a body type comp. I could see Watson being about 215, maybe even 220 in his prime. But that’s where that comp ends. Watson is horrible on contested balls. And average to below at getting early separation.

With Watsons weaknesses, I don’t see him going over 1,100 EVER. He looks like a #2, #3 sort of splash guy who disappoints a lot of the time.

I just can't get on board with your assessment unless injuries continue to derail him. He is CONSTANTLY behind the defense. As fast as Tyrique Hill. You can improve on contested catches (he already has), and Evans isn't as good at them as you seem to think. They are very similar players. Evans grinds out 1k seasons without getting 80 catches. He uses his height a little better in the corner endzone routes, but Watson may get better there. Watson has great separation on his routes quite often.

[bobblehead]

I'm with RG on this one. He's not Evans, who is both physical and fast, and he's not Moss or Tyreek either.
He's built like Moss and fast like Moss, but he doesn't have the games of Moss, Evans or Hill.

They can spread the ball around, yes yes fine. I don't think Doubs is more than a WR3, Wicks is a WR2 at best unless he develops into Davante 2.0, and Reed is a slot guy... so he's not a WR1 either -- he'll be off the field in 12 personnel and Doubs/Watson will get the snaps.
It becomes a situation where you don't have a top wideout. Maybe they can get away with that... but the fact is Gute spent 2 R2 picks to draft him so you'd hope he could develop into a WR1.

I have doubts he'll get there. To be clear, I don't think he was a bad pick or that he's a poor player. I think he won't reach his full potential... few players do.

Right now Watson is closer to Torrey Smith or MVS than a top 10 WR. Comparing him to something like Mike Evans (who was a 1000yd receiver as a rookie, and has been every year since) is crazy.
The development curve for him is bigger coming from NDSU, he didn't have contested catch opportunities there, he didn't have to run much of a route tree. He's lean muscle-- he's almost like a track athlete. He still has to learn how to build up his body and take care of it as a pro player. He might figure all that out and be a great receiver, but probability is against it. He might be 'good' and I guess it's a question of whether that's enough given what they gave up to get him.

Is anyone ever as good as the player comp when they are still young?? We are comping games and play style, not results. If so, any comp ever for a rookie would be silly.

[bobblehead]

Here is the deal about comping guys. I don't care what the watch says on the 40, Watson is about the fastest player I can recall. He outruns angles in the NFL....no one does that. He is ALWAYS behind the D. Love needs to muscle up and throw it earlier as far as he fricking can.

The kind of speed Watson brings is unicorn speed. Its just goofy. He was green coming in being from a small school. He is improving. Love is getting to understand him more. When he learns to snap off a route he will be uncoverable. Maybe that never happens, but he has the potential to do it, and very few do.

[run pMc]

Agree on comping guys. Also agree Watson has a size/speed combo that is special. It's a question of whether he can do something more with that talent at this point. Comparing him to an HOF WR is premature for a guy who has played 22 games.

[Fritz]

Agree on comping guys. Also agree Watson has a size/speed combo that is special. It's a question of whether he can do something more with that talent at this point. Comparing him to an HOF WR is premature for a guy who has played 22 games.

There's a lot of premature ejaculating going on at Packerrats.

[bobblehead]

Agree on comping guys. Also agree Watson has a size/speed combo that is special. It's a question of whether he can do something more with that talent at this point. Comparing him to an HOF WR is premature for a guy who has played 22 games.

Like I said, comparing him to anyone who has a 80 catch season under his belt is premature in that vein. I'm comping play style. Evans is only 50/50 to make the hall at best. He just never posts the monster catch numbers. But Love has tried to hit him (unsuccessfully) many times on that fade route Evans does so well with. But Love is using it from 30 yards out. It needs to become a thing inside the 10. I'll stick with my comp. A guy who is similar in stature, gets open downfield and breaks off chunk plays more often than 10 yarders.

[bobblehead]

There's a lot of premature ejaculating going on at Packerrats.

Agreed. Its funny I to say we can't comp guys 22 games in to a HoF but we comp Love to anyone at all 10 games in is even more silly. As I said, we are comping play style and such. We are comping guys who are evolving and improving and changing. Adams was a contested catch specialist coming out, now he is Allen Iverson putting DBs on skates. The best ankle breaker I have ever seen in the NFL. He completely changed who he was. Watson has certain things that are his calling card, and I say never a 90 catch season...but if he learns to snap off a sideline route while being a major threat to blow right by guys....he could become a 110 catch guy. I just don't think its likely for a 6-4 guy.