Packers Offseason/Free Agency Thread

[run pMc]

To his credit, the kid did come back from his misses. That's a sign of resiliency.

I don't follow the money side of the NFL very well, so I have no idea if any of the top free agent safeties would be affordable to the still-cash-strapped Packers, and I don't know if any of them have the skill set needed for either of the safety positions the Packers now will feature.

Anyone out there with more knowledge care to comment?

The new prevailing wisdom is supposedly that you don't pay a lot for a safety. SEA has been trying to get out of the Jamal Adams deal for a while, NYJ was happy to. There aren't many who are transcendantly good.
A few will get paid (Winfield), and a guy like Geno Stone will get offers but I don't it will be bank breaking.

I think one of Ford or Savage will be back unless they want to start over. Given Ford turns 30 this Nov they might decide on that. I expect Gute to go heavy in the draft at Safety, OL and RB. Hafley's defense will ask different things from its safeties, and GB didn't field a great group last year anyway.

[Frozen Tundra]

His brother though also had some issues early in his career before finding his way. Got cut by Minnesota and Oakland before excelling with the Raiders. Packers will give him a chance to turn this around.

They'll bring in at least one new leg this summer to push him, maybe a couple. Either he'll elevate his game, or perhaps get beaten out.

I still think he's got a future, and remember, statistically his first season was better than Crosby's. But statistics only tell you so much, and the thing that does concern me is that there's no pattern to his misses - with most kickers, they maybe have a tendency to push the ball or hook it to one side or the other, or some other basic thing that can be corrected if they work on that one failing. But with Carlson, there doesn't seem to be just one or even two tendencies - seems to me that he just... misses. A lot.

Makes me wonder if there's a problem with the snap, or the holder getting the ball down properly. I don't know enough about kicking to be able to tell that just from watching the games on TV; maybe someone else who knows kicking will have an opinion there.

[Frozen Tundra]

The new prevailing wisdom is supposedly that you don't pay a lot for a safety. SEA has been trying to get out of the Jamal Adams deal for a while, NYJ was happy to. There aren't many who are transcendantly good.
A few will get paid (Winfield), and a guy like Geno Stone will get offers but I don't it will be bank breaking.

Spotrac pegs Winfield's current market value at 5 years/$92M, about $18M per year. I doubt we'll see him here.

But on the other hand, they set Stone's value at 3 years/$21M, about $7M per year.

So, there's a wide range of valuations there... Spotrac values Kyle Duggar at 4 years/$62M, about $16M a year, and Xavier McKinney is valued at 5 years/$52M, a little over $10M a year. Kamren Curl 4yrs/$57M, L'Jarius Sneed 4yrs/$65M...

There are some short-term bargains out there for older safeties, good players who are on the downside of their careers but still should be quality starters and could be gotten for one or two year deals to tide us over, like Micah Hyde ($3.8M). 26-year old Taylor Rapp may be a good "get" for 2yrs, $5.5M per year; not sure why he's valued so low.

It looks like the most affordable FA solutions would be a guy who's a quality starter but not a pro-bowler on a short term deal to stabilize the position while we look for better talent in the draft. I don't see Gute going bonkers and locking a star safety in for $10M+ per year; even a $5-7 million guy would suit our needs because we don't really need to get all that much better at safety in order to be a lot better than last year.

Personally, though, I'd prefer we draft our safety help. This is a good draft year for safeties, and we have a ton of picks in the right rounds to get quality players at that position.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/safety/

[Anti-Polar Bear]

To his credit, the kid did come back from his misses. That's a sign of resiliency.

I don't follow the money side of the NFL very well, so I have no idea if any of the top free agent safeties would be affordable to the still-cash-strapped Packers, and I don't know if any of them have the skill set needed for either of the safety positions the Packers now will feature.

Anyone out there with more knowledge care to comment?

The Packers have over 400 million frogskins sitting in offshore banks earning interest faster than the speed of fuck. And they’re allowed to, scam, err, sell worthless stocks to cover stadium expenses. The statement that the Packers are “cash-strapped” is inaccurate, ignorant and imprecise.

Perhaps you meant that illusion known to anyone who sucks at elementary math, the so-called “cap hell.” In truth, in an era of titanic TV contracts and fattening revenues, there’s no such fuck as a cap hell anymore in the modern NFL. But let’s pretend for a second that a cap hell somehow exists within the Packers organization.

Well, terminate the Iranian Stallion. Problem solved.

Source: Tank Elf Duke, B.S., Accounting; passer of Wisconsin CPA exams.

[RashanGary]

Every cent paid to a player is added up and cannot exceed the threshold of the “salary cap”

As such, a team can only spend a limited amount of money regardless of how much money they have in their coffers.

Since the salary cap is annual, a better way to look at it is as a 5 year pool of money vs a one year cap since there are ways to spread the money given now over 5 years. Since the salary cap goes up, paying later creates a situation where the same dollar amount paid now is a smaller amount of the cap later. Most teams always push out to maximize what they can spend now and not feel it as much later with the larger cap.

However, Packers, no matter how much money they have, could not afford to pay Jordan Loce 400M a year for the next 5 years because no matter how much you spread that out, it still exceeds the maximum allowed to spend.

The limit of what they can spend is not what they have in the bank, but it’s also not as rigid as a one year 260M cap either.

[RashanGary]

With your CPA skills, show me how you would fit a 5 year, 5 billion dollar contract under the fictitious salary cap, apb. Spread it out and fudge the numbers. Show me you can spend unlimited cash.

[SudsMcBucky]

With your CPA skills, show me how you would fit a 5 year, 5 billion dollar contract under the fictitious salary cap, apb. Spread it out and fudge the numbers. Show me you can spend unlimited cash.

[texaspackerbacker]

With your CPA skills, show me how you would fit a 5 year, 5 billion dollar contract under the fictitious salary cap, apb. Spread it out and fudge the numbers. Show me you can spend unlimited cash.

RG, I agreed with you in that other thread, but I disagree with you on this one. It doesn't take a CPA to comprehend the salary cap, but CPA that he is, APB nailed it.

Take your five year pool thing: you still can push salaries on years beyond that more and more and more as the cap increases more and more and more. And teams that don't live on the edge of the cap, push it, stretch it, take full advantage of it is putting itself at a disadvantage. Ever since Ted Thompson was out as GM, the Packers have done a good job of this. The result is NOT "cap hell" or any stupidity like that. The result has been long term winning football which is strongly likely to continue.

[run pMc]

There are limits on void years and other salary cap shenanigans.

If you think there aren't and the cap can be cooked indefinitely and to infinity, why don't teams do this?
Why wouldn't Jerry just pay 50M/yr to get every player on an All Pro team? Because it's not possible. C'mon, be smarter.

[call_me_ishmael]

RG, I agreed with you in that other thread, but I disagree with you on this one. It doesn't take a CPA to comprehend the salary cap, but CPA that he is, APB nailed it.

Take your five year pool thing: you still can push salaries on years beyond that more and more and more as the cap increases more and more and more. And teams that don't live on the edge of the cap, push it, stretch it, take full advantage of it is putting itself at a disadvantage. Ever since Ted Thompson was out as GM, the Packers have done a good job of this. The result is NOT "cap hell" or any stupidity like that. The result has been long term winning football which is strongly likely to continue.

You wouldn't call having to ship off to HOF players in two years cap hell?

[texaspackerbacker]

Who do you have in mind, cmi? I can't think of any that got shipped off or are in danger of that who didn't need shipping off for quality reasons.

run pMc, Of course there are limits unless you get way beyond the bounds of reason, things can be done.

I should have been more clear about RG's 5 year thing. I assume that references the limit on prorating bonuses. True as far as what can be done at the present, but 2, 3, 4, 5 years down the road, you can do the same, either extending somebody or with other players.

[call_me_ishmael]

The two guys that are sure-fire hall of famers that were here last year and won't be here next year. That said, in general, I agree with you, but the bill does eventually come due. There's a middle ground. The Packers approach probably would have been fine if not for the covid year tbh. Lots of teams were paying the piper the past few years due to the covid year.

[texaspackerbacker]

ok, but do they have names? I bet one of them is the sacred cow - good riddance. Who else? Surely you don't mean Campbell? Aaron Jones? He's gonna be here. Jaire? Probably he stays too, and he's got a way to go before he's HOF material.

[ThunderDan]

ok, but do they have names? I bet one of them is the sacred cow - good riddance. Who else? Surely you don't mean Campbell? Aaron Jones? He's gonna be here. Jaire? Probably he stays too, and he's got a way to go before he's HOF material.

The fucking player who you were sucking his balls for years until he left. ARod.

[texaspackerbacker]

So by "last year", you mean (or thought he meant) 2022? Maybe you've been doing too many people's taxes hahahahaha.

[Fritz]

Every cent paid to a player is added up and cannot exceed the threshold of the “salary cap”

As such, a team can only spend a limited amount of money regardless of how much money they have in their coffers.

Since the salary cap is annual, a better way to look at it is as a 5 year pool of money vs a one year cap since there are ways to spread the money given now over 5 years. Since the salary cap goes up, paying later creates a situation where the same dollar amount paid now is a smaller amount of the cap later. Most teams always push out to maximize what they can spend now and not feel it as much later with the larger cap.

However, Packers, no matter how much money they have, could not afford to pay Jordan Loce 400M a year for the next 5 years because no matter how much you spread that out, it still exceeds the maximum allowed to spend.

The limit of what they can spend is not what they have in the bank, but it’s also not as rigid as a one year 260M cap either.

That helps me understand, thank you. I DID ask people who had knowledge to respond, but I should have specified “knowledge of facts” because APB’s response assumed I meant “knowledge of fantasy.”

[RashanGary]

Tex and APB, pay Love 1B a year for 15 years and make it fit in this cap scenario.

Projected cap increases of 10% per year

2024 250M
2025 275M
2026 305M
2027 335M
2028 370M
2029 410M
2030 450M
2031 505M
2032 555M
2033 610M
2034 670M
2035 740M
2036 810M
2037 890M
2038 980M
He retired after 15 years starting and any left over has to be split over the next two years assuming you have him retire on your terms and it can be split between two years

2039 1.1B
2040 1.2B

Use your fancy accounting and pay a guy 15 billion dollars to play 15 years and spread it over the course of those 17 years. Extensions, voids, signing bonuses. Cook the hell out of that cap and show how you can spend unlimited while staying under those numbers.

Cook that cap.

[Bretsky]

I don't miss the sh@tgag at all

[call_me_ishmael]

So by "last year", you mean (or thought he meant) 2022? Maybe you've been doing too many people's taxes hahahahaha.

This season isn't over, so last year would be the 2022-2023 season, correct.

[texaspackerbacker]

RG, you want to see how Love could make a cool billion in 15 years (actually not that unrealistic hahahaha - an average of 67 million a year).

You spelled out the primary way yourself with that progression of the salary cap.

What you do is start him out with a five year deal, maybe 80 million bonus plus salary of $2, 10, 23, 35. and 45 million for the five years - $185 million 5 year contract - $33 per season, probably a bargain. Cap hit would be $16 million plus the salary per year, not bad. Before the fifth year, you extend him for years 5-9. A bonus of $100 million (the 45 + 55 more), salaries of $5, 12, 28, 40, and 50 million. That's face value of $235 million for 5 years. Cap hit would be a very doable $20 million plus the salary. Before the last (9th) year, extend him again for 5 more - years 9 - 13, $125 million bonus (50 + 75 more), salaries of $8, 17, 30, 50, and 65 million. That's face value of $295 for 5 years. Cap hit would be $25 million plus the salary each year, not too bad with that expanded cap. Before the last (13th) year, extend him for 5 more - years 13-17, $130 million bonus, salaries of $10, 25, 40, 50, and 60. That's face value of $285 million. Cap hit would be $26 million plus annual salaries. That would add up to a billion. I think he would likely still be fit enough to play great those 16th and 17th seasons, but if you want to think he gets cut after 15 years, then that's dead money of $52 million - probably spread out with voided years.

Let CPA APB check my figures, but I'm pretty sure this totals to your billion and 15 years.