thats 16 shit players
8 i would say are good (4 came in 2020)
6 that were - eh
2 that were injured
and somehow my counts off, you assholes figure it out
HOFer
thats 16 shit players
8 i would say are good (4 came in 2020)
6 that were - eh
2 that were injured
and somehow my counts off, you assholes figure it out
Great post Red. I've been thinking about this factor and how it affects QB's. The old rule of thumb is that about 40% of #1 picks become good starters. This factor is even worse when it comes to QB's. 70% of no 1 QB's aren't worth the powder to blow them to hell.
It's even a greater risk when you consider all the value of those high picks. Those high busts are a double whammy. You get nothing for the selection and your team is divided and in a worse boat than before the draft. Hell, the Jones pick cost one of the all time great coaches to lose his job! (Not that there's anything wrong with that!)
You had a vintage year (2020) followed by a death year (2021)
No rhyme or reason there.
There is rhyme and reason for 2021 being a bad year. Given how a lot of players stayed an extra year, and scouting was limited in the previous year, it was a terribledraft all around. I don't know if any of the 2020 hits came out earlier because of the pandemic, but 4 good QB's in the first round is a lucky draft regardless.Originally Posted by KYPack
Fire Murphy, Gute, MLF, Barry, Senavich, etc!
Yer right. That is a reason, Mad. Now what's the rhyme?
QBs get overdrafted because of their importance in the game and potential value if you hit on one.
Draft success in the aggregate is basically a coin flip, having more/higher picks increases your odds slightly.
I'd also say that the team a player lands on matters a lot.
- If they have a garbage organization and coaching staff, they aren't going to develop. (Justin Fields)
- If they get shoved on the field as a Day 1 starter before they are ready with a leaky OL, they are going to fail. (Zach Wilson)
- If you trade away your best WR, they will struggle. (Bryce Young)
Granted, those QB examples were unlikely to beat the odds because of other shortcomings, but the situation they entered certainly did them no favors.
Jordan Love had time to develop with a patient organization, had a halfway decent OL, and while the receivers were a wildcard, by end of year they had gelled. The big assumption was he'd have a good running game with Jones/Dillon and the defense would hold up, but by midseason things started to trend up.
FWIW I think not having a single, psycho owner helps GB a lot -- the fans and the owner often want the shiny new QB to play right away when they are still learning the playbook. Meanwhile the coach and GM are trying to keep their job. There have been a lot of good QB prospects ruined by being drafted into bad environments.
I've often wondered what kind of player Fields might have become if he'd been drafted by Green Bay rather than the Bears. He seemed to have all the skills, but never had the time or the coaching he needed.
Far better to have multiple psycho owners, as Green Bay does.
Boy, that's a hell of a list Red put together. I wonder what you'd come up with if you put together a similar list of, say, top-ten picks who were not QB's in the years Red covered. Would you have fewer busts?
"The Devine era is actually worse than you remember if you go back and look at it."
KYPack
Dane Brugler
@dpbrugler
Updated Pro Day for #Iowa DB Cooper DeJean:
Fully cleared and plans to work out for NFL teams on Monday, April 8
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
Will he eclipse his earlier numbers?
What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?
He didn't work out at Iowa's Pro Day.
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
25: R1 P25 DL Jer'Zhan Newton - Illinois
41: R2 P9 C Graham Barton - Duke
57: R2 P25 LB Edgerrin Cooper - Texas A&M
88: R3 P24 S Jaden Hicks - Washington State
91: R3 P27 S Javon Bullard - Georgia
125: R4 P25 RB Dylan Laube - New Hampshire
169: R5 P34 OT Brandon Coleman - TCU
201: R6 P25 WR Luke McCaffery - Rice
219: R6 P43 G Delmar Glaze - Maryland
245: R7 P25 CB Johnny Dixon - Penn State
255: R7 P35 EDGE Brennan Jackson - Washington State
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
P-Ma has been “ok.” lol
I'm not going to stop the wheel. I'm going to break the wheel.
Bortles and Wentz were weird cases.
Bortles just fell apart for seemingly no reason, and Wentz was a borderline MVP before destroying his knee and then becoming pretty bad.
Unlike some of the others, they and D Watson, actually justified their draft position, imo, they just didn't pan out.
Impressive, if incomplete Pro Day.
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
First off, props to red on a nice well researched post.
Second of all, props to run for the analysis.
Third, I've been saying for a long time that paying a mediocre QB Maholmes money is idiocy. Run is correct here. The organization, the team around them, the systems run. Bortles looked really good for a minute when he had a good running game and a well designed offense, but then his development hit the Nathaniel Hackett wall. There are a few Unicorns that need to be paid. I suspect Love is no better than a lot of middling QBs, but we have all the things mentioned to make him successful. Same with Brock Purdy. I still would like to see a team simply refuse to pay a QB, recycle guys wo are "ok", and keep a really good roster build. Sign Flacco as the backup and when Tannehill demands to get paid move Flacco in and sign Wentz as the backup. When Flacco demands to get paid move Wentz in (who now has a year in the system) and sign Daniel Jones. On and on it could go. The NFL has 3-5 QBs worthy of the money they get. All the rest is bullshit. Guys look great when everyone around them is good. They look bad when everyone around them sucks. Now, if my latest crush plays well and will take $25 mil instead of demading 45 maybe I keep him.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
when we signed Hackett I bitched loudly on this forum. Can we all agree at this point that he destroys QBs careers?? Lets be honest, he was a placeholder OC first year in Jax and both years here. But he has had a hand in Bortles demise, Rodgers deciding he was a GM, Russel Wilsons demise and maybe threw gas on a burning Zack Wilson.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
I think Nathaniel Hackett is an offensive coordinator who should probably be an excellent position coach. If he has good offensive skill players they can make him look good, and he might rise to the level of 'ok' as an OC, but I don't think he's much above that.
He's over his head as a head coach.
I also think having the Hackett last name and connections through his dad probably got him a leg up. Nepotism runs rampant in the NFL.
Does he have a reputation for developing players? If he does I don't know about it.
Barton screams Packer player. Smart, athletic, good in pass pro, can play multiple spots on the OL. I won't be shocked if they take him at 25 or 41.Impressive, if incomplete Pro Day.
(25's a bit rich for me, but he'd be instant competition and probably start over Rhyan or Myers)
I think taking Barton at 41 has become a pipedream. Not even a guarantee he'll be there at 25. Kiper and Jeremiah both have Dolphins taking him at 21 in their latest mocks.
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
Blake Watson is an interesting Day 3 prospect at RB.
SCOUTING REPORT: STRENGTHS
Flashes initial burst and good lateral quickness to sidestep defenders or bounce runs outside with very good foot quickness. Displays very good feel as an inside and outside runner with above average vision to make sharp cuts - good patience· and footwork to pick through defenses.
An instinctive runner, Watson has a knack for setting up defenders and making people miss in space. He’s at his best in space and on the perimeter, where he shows the balance and acceleration, plus pure speed, to make a move and then take off.
Watson is an electrifying player, one of college football’s best playmakers in space
His competitiveness and knack for high-pointing the ball allow him to play bigger than his size.
Watson finishes runs well and flashes the ability to get small and squeeze through traffic.
He’s a natural pass catcher, at his best pulling in swing passes and heading upfield. He’s a natural in the screen game as well. His hands are good enough that he can line up in the slot.
SCOUTING REPORT: WEAKNESSES
Watson seems comfortable in traffic to the point where Watson doesn’t make the effort to create separation.
Watson isn’t going to overwhelm opposing defensive backs with speed and athleticism.
Has a lean frame and lacks ideal bulk or muscle for the position. Doesn't have great strength, lacking a power element to his game to break many tackles.
Listed at 5-9, 189 pounds with 4.5 40. Ran reported 4.3 at Pro Day
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
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