Official 2024 NFL Draft Thread

[bobblehead]

Blake Watson is an interesting Day 3 prospect at RB.

SCOUTING REPORT: STRENGTHS
Flashes initial burst and good lateral quickness to sidestep defenders or bounce runs outside with very good foot quickness. Displays very good feel as an inside and outside runner with above average vision to make sharp cuts - good patience· and footwork to pick through defenses.
An instinctive runner, Watson has a knack for setting up defenders and making people miss in space. He’s at his best in space and on the perimeter, where he shows the balance and acceleration, plus pure speed, to make a move and then take off.
Watson is an electrifying player, one of college football’s best playmakers in space
His competitiveness and knack for high-pointing the ball allow him to play bigger than his size.
Watson finishes runs well and flashes the ability to get small and squeeze through traffic.
He’s a natural pass catcher, at his best pulling in swing passes and heading upfield. He’s a natural in the screen game as well. His hands are good enough that he can line up in the slot.


SCOUTING REPORT: WEAKNESSES
Watson seems comfortable in traffic to the point where Watson doesn’t make the effort to create separation.
Watson isn’t going to overwhelm opposing defensive backs with speed and athleticism.
Has a lean frame and lacks ideal bulk or muscle for the position. Doesn't have great strength, lacking a power element to his game to break many tackles.

Listed at 5-9, 189 pounds with 4.5 40. Ran reported 4.3 at Pro Day

I watched about 3 minutes, and I really liked it. He wasn't even on my radar which goes to the point I always make about finding good RBs at all points of the draft. This line "Watson seems comfortable in traffic to the point where Watson doesn’t make the effort to create separation." was interesting to me. What I saw was a guy with phenomenal vision. He just seems to know which way to cut to avoid the bulk of defenders. When the hole was right there he shot through it, but when it wasn't he found the crease. Very Jones like.

[run pMc]

I like Watson as a late Day3/UDFA type. He has good speed on film and his vision isn't bad. Older prospect and not very big but worth a flier on. I think they will look for a different body type with Jacobs, Dillon, and Wilson on the roster at RB already and he fits that.

As for Barton, he might be gone by 21 but a lot of teams might see that as rich for an interior OL. Not many get taken before late R1. He doesn't have the length teams look for to play T, so you're going to let him drop a little bit before taking him in favor of a "premium" position.
Same thing with JPJ. I don't see either Barton or Powers-Johnson going before 20 because of position.

The counter argument of course is to look at what JRJ and Robert Hunt got in FA and think the IOL FA market is exploding even for non-elite players.

Don't know that JPJ or Barton is going to pan out, but I think if you are certain you are getting an All-Pro level player at IOL you take them where you can get them.

[Fritz]

I like Watson as a late Day3/UDFA type. He has good speed on film and his vision isn't bad. Older prospect and not very big but worth a flier on. I think they will look for a different body type with Jacobs, Dillon, and Wilson on the roster at RB already and he fits that.

As for Barton, he might be gone by 21 but a lot of teams might see that as rich for an interior OL. Not many get taken before late R1. He doesn't have the length teams look for to play T, so you're going to let him drop a little bit before taking him in favor of a "premium" position.
Same thing with JPJ. I don't see either Barton or Powers-Johnson going before 20 because of position.

The counter argument of course is to look at what JRJ and Robert Hunt got in FA and think the IOL FA market is exploding even for non-elite players.

Don't know that JPJ or Barton is going to pan out, but I think if you are certain you are getting an All-Pro level player at IOL you take them where you can get them.

Man, that Watson kid can find the creases. You gotta love that.

[ThunderDan]

I like Watson as a late Day3/UDFA type. He has good speed on film and his vision isn't bad. Older prospect and not very big but worth a flier on. I think they will look for a different body type with Jacobs, Dillon, and Wilson on the roster at RB already and he fits that.

As for Barton, he might be gone by 21 but a lot of teams might see that as rich for an interior OL. Not many get taken before late R1. He doesn't have the length teams look for to play T, so you're going to let him drop a little bit before taking him in favor of a "premium" position.
Same thing with JPJ. I don't see either Barton or Powers-Johnson going before 20 because of position.

The counter argument of course is to look at what JRJ and Robert Hunt got in FA and think the IOL FA market is exploding even for non-elite players.

Don't know that JPJ or Barton is going to pan out, but I think if you are certain you are getting an All-Pro level player at IOL you take them where you can get them.

I would grab an OT in round 1 if one is available. I would look at Beaux Limmer from Arkansas later in the draft for C competition.

[bobblehead]

I started thinking about the idea that Gutes is so adept at finding monster awesome OL talent in the middle rounds that we shouldn't draft an OT in the 1st. Its not actually based on the subjective breakdown of his drafts, and his record definitely isn't so stellar that we should gamble that he can find us a new RG and hopefully a new C in the same draft. Lets break it down.

2018 Cole Madison - out of football
2019 Elgton Jenkins - Stud...but picked in the 2nd.
2020 Jon Runyan - Serviceable, got a nice 2nd contract, but a guy we all wanted replaced
Jake Hansen - If he isn't gone, he should be
Simon Stepaniak - out of football
2021 Josh Myers - Serviceable, but a 2nd round pick
Royce Newman - Thankfully gone
Cole Van Lanen - Traded for a late pick
2022 Sean Rhyan - Hope he is gone
Zack Tom - Stud
Rasheed Walker - Stud in the making imo, but its not a lock yet.

Does this inspire you to be sure we can find a new RG by throwing a bunch of day 3 picks at the problem?? Other than landing Tom and Walker in 2022 his day 3 picks are a disaster.

I'm more convinced than ever that, given the OL depth in this draft, we should probably land 2 in our first 3 picks.

*I went off the top of my head for where guys are now. If I were wrong about someone being out of the game or technically still on the roster, I stand by the position of "should be what I said"

[run pMc]

Jake Hanson is on the NYJ roster I believe.
Royce Newman is still on GB's roster - it's his last year of his rookie contract.
I don't hope Rhyan is gone; I actually hope he makes a leap in his play so he can be reliable in pass protection. He's not there yet. Because of that, I think they need to bring in competition for Rhyan (and Myers, who is also on the last year of his contract) and a swing tackle for depth.

Madison was a mental health situation, his college buddy killed himself.
Stepaniak was a shame; dude was monstrously strong (37 reps at the combine with a torn ACL) but his knee didn't fully recover so he retired. Both were Day 3 fliers (IIRC Madison was R5, Stepaniak R6).

This year's draft is very deep at OL, I think they can and will draft several players who should be able to either push for time or develop into eventual starters if not quality depth. I think they will address OL before Day 3, but it wouldn't shock me if they took an OL each day of the draft.

Given their preferences for taking high RAS players at "premium" positions and from Power 5 schools, an OT is not out of the question in R1.

[pittstang5]

I'm hoping the Royce Newman experiment is over after the draft. How he made last years roster is beyond me. He's as useful as a cock flavored lollipop.

Gutey is gonna draft, IMO, at a minimum, 2 O-lineman in this years draft; Most likely a Swiss Army knife interior guy and a swing tackle or someone to compete with Walker. Tom is fine at RT - Let him stay there. Walker could be replaced with a higher draft pick LT and become a swing tackle backup.

[bobblehead]

Jake Hanson is on the NYJ roster I believe.
Royce Newman is still on GB's roster - it's his last year of his rookie contract.
I don't hope Rhyan is gone; I actually hope he makes a leap in his play so he can be reliable in pass protection. He's not there yet. Because of that, I think they need to bring in competition for Rhyan (and Myers, who is also on the last year of his contract) and a swing tackle for depth.

Madison was a mental health situation, his college buddy killed himself.
Stepaniak was a shame; dude was monstrously strong (37 reps at the combine with a torn ACL) but his knee didn't fully recover so he retired. Both were Day 3 fliers (IIRC Madison was R5, Stepaniak R6).

This year's draft is very deep at OL, I think they can and will draft several players who should be able to either push for time or develop into eventual starters if not quality depth. I think they will address OL before Day 3, but it wouldn't shock me if they took an OL each day of the draft.

Given their preferences for taking high RAS players at "premium" positions and from Power 5 schools, an OT is not out of the question in R1.

Newman was so bad last year he needs to be replaced. Rhyan hasn't really shown me much to this point and I have no confidence in said jump. My point stands that people are giving Gutes accolades based off Tom and Walker both breaking out last year. He really isn't landing pro bowlers in rounds 3-7. Given the depth of this draft our 1st round pick really should be CB or OT, most likely OT. And honestly I would be thrilled if we took another one at pick 41 (I think is the pick). We have 3 studs. Lock down the other 2 positions and we are set for a decade with probably the best OL in football. The game is won in the trenches. Then with our other 2/3 round picks we can look at other areas of need, while still focusing on BPA. The BPA at 1 will almost certainly be a tackle or CB.

[run pMc]

Newman was so bad last year he needs to be replaced. Rhyan hasn't really shown me much to this point and I have no confidence in said jump. My point stands that people are giving Gutes accolades based off Tom and Walker both breaking out last year. He really isn't landing pro bowlers in rounds 3-7. Given the depth of this draft our 1st round pick really should be CB or OT, most likely OT. And honestly I would be thrilled if we took another one at pick 41 (I think is the pick). We have 3 studs. Lock down the other 2 positions and we are set for a decade with probably the best OL in football. The game is won in the trenches. Then with our other 2/3 round picks we can look at other areas of need, while still focusing on BPA. The BPA at 1 will almost certainly be a tackle or CB.

I don't disagree with you, but I also think that his odds on hitting big are low when you have Jenkins, Myers and Rhyan as the only non-Day 3 picks. The accolades likely come from finding his starting tackles in Day 3 (Tom in R4, Walker in R7) -- that is almost unheard of considering most starting OTs are early picks if not R1 picks. The fact that they got as many starts from a R6 pick like JRJ is pretty good value. Newman looked like he was going to be ok based on his rookie year but has not done well since.

I don't think Gute has been amazing at drafting OL or anything but he's gotten pretty good value from some of his picks. Given the quality at OL in this draft class and their current roster/depth chart, I expect them to lean heavily into that OL draft class with their picks.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

The Packers are set to pick where in the 1st round? 25th?

That’s Sherrod, Bulaga, Verbra, Michels, Cletidus, Datone Jones territories. Hell, name one fat Yokozuna the Packers drafted anywhere in the first round,1992-onwards, who turned out to be a bona fide All-Pro in the Green and Mustard Yellow.

Clifton and Iranian Stallion rank 1-2 as the best tackles to don the Green and Mustard Yellow, 1992-onwards, and they weren’t 1st rounders. Harrell was a bust. Raji was a tease who quit on the Packers.

As president of the National Organization of Fans Against Tubbiness in Sports - NO’FATS - trust me when I say this: drafting Yokozunas in the first round is wasteful.

[Fosco33]

The Packers are set to pick where in the 1st round? 25th?

That’s Sherrod, Bulaga, Verbra, Michels, Cletidus, Datone Jones territories. Hell, name one fat Yokozuna the Packers drafted anywhere in the first round,1992-onwards, who turned out to be a bona fide All-Pro in the Green and Mustard Yellow.

Clifton and Iranian Stallion rank 1-2 as the best tackles to don the Green and Mustard Yellow, 1992-onwards, and they weren’t 1st rounders. Harrell was a bust. Raji was a tease who quit on the Packers.

As president of the National Organization of Fans Against Tubbiness in Sports - NO’FATS - trust me when I say this: drafting Yokozunas in the first round is wasteful.

From a Steelers article in 2019 assessing lineman, all pro and pro bowlers along with draft position.

Tldr, if you need to find a top prospect OL - draft them early.

https://steelcityblitz.com/where-to-...-in-the-draft/

[run pMc]

From a Steelers article in 2019 assessing lineman, all pro and pro bowlers along with draft position.

Tldr, if you need to find a top prospect OL - draft them early.

https://steelcityblitz.com/where-to-...-in-the-draft/

Yeah there have been other studies on where All-Pros have been taken. (I think Andy Mertig on Pack-a-day podcast?)
Shocker - most of the time it's in the first round. That's where you'll find highest level of talent. That said, some positions have enough later round picks where a case can be made for drafting later.

Just going by process of elimination, it's unlikely Gute will take a CB in R1 because they have plenty signed and paid Nixon like a starter. RB? No prospects. Same for S and LB, unless they really reach. They aren't taking a QB. History plus the roster likely rules out WR and TE.

That pretty much leaves you with OL or DL (including EDGE).

[Anti-Polar Bear]

From a Steelers article in 2019 assessing lineman, all pro and pro bowlers along with draft position.

Tldr, if you need to find a top prospect OL - draft them early.

https://steelcityblitz.com/where-to-...-in-the-draft/

To paraphrase Tex, who gives a fuck about the other teams? Ever since Wolf took over as GM, the Packers have been miserable at drafting Yokozunas in the first round - that is a fact.

Clifton, Tausher, Bak, Lang, Sitton, Wells, Linsley, hell, even the Fucking Center, among others, weren’t 1st rounders. If German Shepherd is smart, he’ll heed historical data, 1992-onwards, and refrain from drafting an offensive lineman in the first round in the upcoming draft. Avoid a defensive tackle like the plague, too.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Defensively, Pickett might’ve been the best 1st round Yokozuna to don the Green and Mustard Yellow, 1992-onwards, and he wasn’t even drafted by the Packers. Packers were fine and dandy with players like Brown, Dotson, Jenkins, Jolly and even the original Cletidus.

Sure, there are busts at every position. But the kung fu between a Butte and a, say, Hundley is more profound than that of a Cletidus and the rook who wore 94 for the Packers last season. In other words, the Packers should refrain from drafting offensive linemen and fat defensive linemen in the 1st round.

[bobblehead]

The Packers are set to pick where in the 1st round? 25th?

That’s Sherrod, Bulaga, Verbra, Michels, Cletidus, Datone Jones territories. Hell, name one fat Yokozuna the Packers drafted anywhere in the first round,1992-onwards, who turned out to be a bona fide All-Pro in the Green and Mustard Yellow.

Clifton and Iranian Stallion rank 1-2 as the best tackles to don the Green and Mustard Yellow, 1992-onwards, and they weren’t 1st rounders. Harrell was a bust. Raji was a tease who quit on the Packers.

As president of the National Organization of Fans Against Tubbiness in Sports - NO’FATS - trust me when I say this: drafting Yokozunas in the first round is wasteful.

Bulaga was good. And Sherrod would have panned out if they didn't ruin his leg. Verba had a long successful career. Clark is a really good pro. Jones and Michels were flops. Michels was drafted by wolf wasn't he??

[bobblehead]

To paraphrase Tex, who gives a fuck about the other teams? Ever since Wolf took over as GM, the Packers have been miserable at drafting Yokozunas in the first round - that is a fact.

Clifton, Tausher, Bak, Lang, Sitton, Wells, Linsley, hell, even the Fucking Center, among others, weren’t 1st rounders. If German Shepherd is smart, he’ll heed historical data, 1992-onwards, and refrain from drafting an offensive lineman in the first round in the upcoming draft. Avoid a defensive tackle like the plague, too.

Except they haven't been terrible. You have shown some success in other rounds. That doesn't make them terrible in the 1st. I broke down the ones you named. It wasn't a bad success rate.

[run pMc]

Michels and Verba were Wolf picks. So was Aaron Taylor, who was a decent player and a R1 pick as a Guard (!)

Best DL drafted since Wolf was probably Kenny Clark. You could make an argument for KGB, but if we're talking about R1 it's KC. The Packers' track record of drafting DL early has actually been... not good. The DL draft classes have not been great lately, although Karl Brooks could be a steal.

You can find value at any position later in the draft, but you still need high end talent to handle another team's high end talent.
If your OT is a late round guy with limited athleticism, there's a good chance he's going to give up one or two sacks in a game vs. Bosa, and that could change a game (or put your QB in the hospital).
You absolutely need to minimize that risk if you have a chance to.

I love some of the WRs in this class, but I just don't see them taking one in R1. It'll more likely be a Yokozuma, so get your crazy hate mail ready for Gute if you don't like it.

[texaspackerbacker]

Defensively, Pickett might’ve been the best 1st round Yokozuna to don the Green and Mustard Yellow, 1992-onwards, and he wasn’t even drafted by the Packers. Packers were fine and dandy with players like Brown, Dotson, Jenkins, Jolly and even the original Cletidus.

Sure, there are busts at every position. But the kung fu between a Butte and a, say, Hundley is more profound than that of a Cletidus and the rook who wore 94 for the Packers last season. In other words, the Packers should refrain from drafting offensive linemen and fat defensive linemen in the 1st round.

Pickett, of course, was a first round pick of somebody else, not the Packers. I'm generally in agreement with you about the "yokozuma" thing. I absolutely do not want a first round O Line pick, probably ever. D Line on the other hand is not a never-do thing in the first round, but for this year, we're pretty solid there already thanks to getting lucky with our 4th and 6th rounders last year. That plus my obvious disagreement with you about Kenny Clark. My position on the O Line, which many in here probably disagree with, you I'm not sure, APB, is that O Line is basically not very important. You can get by with mediocrity there if you have excellence at the "skilled" positions. That has been the situation with the Packers for decades, the quality level of the O Line and people like Bakhtiari being magnified way out of proportion in people's eyes by the quality of our QBs, RBs, and WRs. While really bad O Linemen like Marshall House can make a negative difference, merely mediocre O Linemen are plenty good enough, making it unnecessary and stupid IMO to draft an O Lineman in the first round.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Michels and Verba were Wolf picks. So was Aaron Taylor, who was a decent player and a R1 pick as a Guard (!)

Best DL drafted since Wolf was probably Kenny Clark. You could make an argument for KGB, but if we're talking about R1 it's KC. The Packers' track record of drafting DL early has actually been... not good. The DL draft classes have not been great lately, although Karl Brooks could be a steal.

You can find value at any position later in the draft, but you still need high end talent to handle another team's high end talent.
If your OT is a late round guy with limited athleticism, there's a good chance he's going to give up one or two sacks in a game vs. Bosa, and that could change a game (or put your QB in the hospital).
You absolutely need to minimize that risk if you have a chance to.

I love some of the WRs in this class, but I just don't see them taking one in R1. It'll more likely be a Yokozuma, so get your crazy hate mail ready for Gute if you don't like it.

Ever seen a sumo wrestling match? Pretty much a couple of fat, unathletic fellows pushing each other around, and the one with the best techniques eventually wins the match. That’s offensive linemen in a nutshell.

Why waste a 1st on a Bulaga, who was average at best when he wasn’t injured, when you can get a Walker in the 7th? Walker obviously honed his techniques quite a bit since he got drafted.

Then there’s Cletidus. Below average pass rusher. Terrible run stopper. Nothing but an overpaid version of Dean Lowry. Clark, in a nutshell, ain’t a playmaker; ain’t a difference maker. 94 can do what Clark does. Why NFL GMs continue to draft Cletiduses, Wyattes, Joneses and Harrellses in the 1st is beyond fuck.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Pickett, of course, was a first round pick of somebody else, not the Packers. I'm generally in agreement with you about the "yokozuma" thing. I absolutely do not want a first round O Line pick, probably ever. D Line on the other hand is not a never-do thing in the first round, but for this year, we're pretty solid there already thanks to getting lucky with our 4th and 6th rounders last year. That plus my obvious disagreement with you about Kenny Clark. My position on the O Line, which many in here probably disagree with, you I'm not sure, APB, is that O Line is basically not very important. You can get by with mediocrity there if you have excellence at the "skilled" positions. That has been the situation with the Packers for decades, the quality level of the O Line and people like Bakhtiari being magnified way out of proportion in people's eyes by the quality of our QBs, RBs, and WRs. While really bad O Linemen like Marshall House can make a negative difference, merely mediocre O Linemen are plenty good enough, making it unnecessary and stupid IMO to draft an O Lineman in the first round.

I don’t think OL is unimportant. It’s just that the talent gap between Fucking Center (Jenkins) and Dick Dietrich (Deiter, the former Badgers guard who was draft by the Mermen in the 4th round of the same draft as Jenkins) is not as wide as that of DK Metcalf and Allen Lazard.

No doubt a Packer offense featuring Metcalf and Deiter would be better than the one featuring the Fucking Center and Lazard.