2008 Financial Thread

[Kiwon]

Well fuck it...I can't hold off any longer and am going to dump a bunch of gold. It's up 40 fucking percent in just 6 months or so and I started buy a long time ago. I've been real antsy about it for weeks now and I'm seeing some sells so I'm going to make some money and buy another piece of property and take a long vacation with the wife. It has to start tailing off a bit right?
My daughter who is going to start school in New Zealand in three months was thinking of ways to make some extra money before leaving so I told her to sell all the gold jewelry she bought in Asia a few years ago. A bunch of soft Thai stuff.....she made close to a 350 percent profit! It's freaking crazy.

Freaky, have you sold all your gold? It's up over $1,000 an ounce.

You should be sitting pretty now. Good job.

[Freak Out]

Well fuck it...I can't hold off any longer and am going to dump a bunch of gold. It's up 40 fucking percent in just 6 months or so and I started buy a long time ago. I've been real antsy about it for weeks now and I'm seeing some sells so I'm going to make some money and buy another piece of property and take a long vacation with the wife. It has to start tailing off a bit right?
My daughter who is going to start school in New Zealand in three months was thinking of ways to make some extra money before leaving so I told her to sell all the gold jewelry she bought in Asia a few years ago. A bunch of soft Thai stuff.....she made close to a 350 percent profit! It's freaking crazy.

Freaky, have you sold all your gold? It's up over $1,000 an ounce.

You should be sitting pretty now. Good job.

I did sell some but held off on the majority...smart (lucky) thing. I read a funny story a few days ago about gold....for years loads of little vials of water and gold dust has been sold in Alaska as a tourist thing...now the assayers are buying it up like crazy. On a whim I took one that I think I paid $8 for down to an assayer here and got $161 for it...%60 of market value! Crazy.

[Freak Out]

March 15, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist

George Speaks, Badly
By GAIL COLLINS

Watching George W. Bush address the New York financial community Friday brought back many memories. Unfortunately, they were about his speech right after Hurricane Katrina, the one when he said: “America will be a stronger place for it.”

“You’ve helped make our country really in many ways the economic envy of the world,” he told the Economic Club of New York.

You could almost see the thought-bubble forming over the audience: Not this week, kiddo.

The president squinched his face and bit his lip and seemed too antsy to stand still. As he searched for the name of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia (“the king, uh, the king of Saudi”) and made guy-fun of one of the questioners (“Who picked Gigot?”), you had to wonder what the international financial community makes of a country whose president could show up to talk economics in the middle of a liquidity crisis and kind of flop around the stage as if he was emcee at the Iowa Republican Pig Roast.

We’re really past expecting anything much, but in times of crisis you would like to at least believe your leader has the capacity to pretend he’s in control. Suddenly, I recalled a day long ago when my husband worked for a struggling paper full of worried employees and the publisher walked into the newsroom wearing a gorilla suit.

The country that elected George Bush — sort of — because he seemed like he’d be more fun to have a beer with than Al Gore or John Kerry is really getting its comeuppance. Our credit markets are foundering, and all we’ve got is a guy who looks like he’s ready to kick back and start the weekend.

This is not the first time Bush’s attempts to calm our fears redoubled our nightmares. His first speech after 9/11 — that two-minute job on the Air Force base — was so stilted that the entire country felt like heading for the nearest fallout shelter. After Katrina, of course, it took forever to pry him out of Crawford, and then he more or less read a laundry list of Goods Being Shipped to the Flood Zone and delivered some brief assurances that things would work out.

O.K., so he’s not good at first-day response. Or second. Third can be a problem, too. But this economic crisis has been going on for months, and all the president could come up with sounded as if it had been composed for a Rotary Club and then delivered by a guy who had never read it before. “One thing is certain that Congress will do is waste some of your money,” he said. “So I’ve challenged members of Congress to cut the number of cost of earmarks in half.”

Besides being incoherent, this is a perfect sign of an utterly phony speech. Earmarks are one of those easy-to-attack Congressional weaknesses, and in a perfect world, they would not exist. But they cost approximately two cents in the grand budgetary scheme of things. Saying you’re going to fix the economy or balance the budget by cutting out earmarks is like saying you’re going to end global warming by banning bathroom nightlights.

Bush pointed out — as if the entire economic world didn’t already know — that Congress has already passed an economic incentive package that will send tax rebate checks to more than 130 million households. “A lot of them are a little skeptical about this ‘checks in the mail’ stuff,” he jibed. Jokejoke. Winkwink.

Then, after a run through of “ideas I strongly reject,” Bush finally got around to announcing that he was going to “talk about what we’re for. We’re obviously for sending out over $150 billion into the marketplace in the form of checks that will be reaching the mailboxes by the second week of May.

“We’re for that,” he added.

Once the markets had that really, really clear, Bush felt free to go on to the other things he was for, which very much resembled that laundry list for Katrina (“400 trucks containing 5.4 million Meals Ready to Eat — or M.R.E.’s ... 3.4 million pounds of ice ...”) This time the rundown included a six-month-old F.H.A. refinancing program, and an industry group called Hope Now that offers advice to people with mortgage problems.

And then, finally, the nub of the housing crisis: “Problem we have is, a lot of folks aren’t responding to over a million letters sent out to offer them assistance and mortgage counseling,” the president of the United States told the world.

But wait — more positive news! The secretary of Housing and Urban Development is proposing that lenders supply an easy-to-read summary with mortgage agreements. “You know, these mortgages can be pretty frightening to people. I mean, there’s a lot of tiny print,” the president said.

Really, if he can’t fix the economy, the least he could do is rehearse the speech.

[Kiwon]

I love the title of her piece, "George Speaks Badly." No one has ever reported on this before. It's groundbreaking.

Well, one good thing about Bush's presidency coming to an end is that maybe the NYT op-ed pieces blaming him for every conceivable problem will begin to cease.

Bush is inarticulate. So what? Hillary's a proven liar and sounds like everyone's ex-wife or mother-in-law when she gets worked up and Obama speaks in endless platitudes spoken eloquently. I wonder if Gail Collins can step out of her bias bubble to notice that her own newspaper is a utter failure financially and journalistically. No, that's not important. Bush as the stupid bumbler, that's the narrative that never seems to get old for the elites and NYT loyalists. Now, Governor Eliot Spitzer, there's a bright boy. He can pronounce the names of both the heads of Saudi Arabia AND Russia. Wow, I bet Gail Collins voted for him.

Bush and the Congress have made questionable moves of late but President's Bush's address to The Economic Club of New York reveals that he at least understands some economic basics. Oh, he's not as well spoken as the New York snob Gail Collins, but so be it. She has a lot of experience as a country's chief executive, I'm sure.

Democrats have to create a climate of fear in order to justify the coming tax hikes and wealth redistribution. President Bush on the other hand actually had something positive to say about his country. Imagine that, America is not the cause of every evil known to man. Here's part of his speech:

"In a free market, there's going to be good times and bad times. That's how markets work. There will be ups and downs. And after 52 consecutive months of job growth, which is a record, our economy obviously is going through a tough time. I want to remind you, this is not the first time since I've been the president that we've faced economic challenges. We inherited a recession, and then there were the attacks of September the 11th, 2001, which many of you saw firsthand, and I made the difficult decisions to confront the terrorists and extremists on two major fronts: Afghanistan and Iraq. And then we had devastating natural disasters. And the interesting thing, every time this economy has bounced back better and stronger than before. So I'm coming to you as an optimistic fellow.

(That's the other part that Gail Collins doesn't like - the optimism..)

One bill in Congress would provide $4 billion for state and local governments to buy up abandoned and foreclosed homes. You know, I guess this sounds like a good idea to some, but if your goal is to help Americans keep their homes, it doesn't make any sense to spend billions of dollars buying up homes that are already empty. As a matter of fact, when you buy up empty homes you're only helping the lenders, or the speculators. The purpose of government ought to be to help the individuals, not those who speculated in homes. This bill sends the wrong signal to the market.

[A] lot of folks are worried about their neighbors losing work. ... [S]ometimes, if you're going to lead this country, you have to stand in the face of what appears to be a political headwind. ... I'm troubled by isolationism and protectionism. ... [W]hat concerns me is, is that the United States of America will become fatigued when it comes to fighting off tyrants, or say it's too hard to spread liberty, or use the excuse that just because freedom hadn't flourished in parts of the world, therefore it's not worth trying, and that, as a result, we kind of retrench and lose confidence in our -- the values that have made us a great nation in the first place. But these aren't American values; they're universal values. And the danger of getting tired during this world [sic] is any retreat by the America -- by America was going to be to the benefit of those who want to do us harm. Now, I understand that since September the 11th, the great tendency is to say, we're no longer in danger. Well, that's false. That's false hope. It's either disingenuous or naive, and either one of those attitudes is unrealistic. And the biggest job we've got is to protect the American people from harm. I don't want to get in another issue, but that's why we better figure out what the enemy is saying on their telephones, if you want to protect you."

[Joemailman]

http://www.usatoday.com/money/indust...arsterns_N.htm

Hope nobody owns a lot of Bear Stearns stock. JP Morgan is buying it for $2 a share. It closed at $30 on Friday.

[Kiwon]

http://www.usatoday.com/money/indust...arsterns_N.htm

Hope nobody owns a lot of Bear Stearns stock. JP Morgan is buying it for $2 a share. It closed at $30 on Friday.

Holy Molly! That's what I call a fire sale.

I wonder what type of bonuses Bear Stearns execs got last year. They better be ready to give them back after the shareholders law suits get cranked up.

I wonder what type of BR debt that JP Morgan is assuming.

[GrnBay007]

Is anyone out there with money laying around checking out the foreclosures?? This housing bust can't last forever. Seems like there are some incredible deals out there right now.

[Joemailman]

30% of Bear Stearns stock is owned by their employees. I wonder how many people are about to lose a big chunk of their retirement savings, ala Enron.

[Freak Out]

We know Bush creates his own reality and like his father before him is completely disconnected from the world most Americans live in and his statement this morning after hearing from Paulson reaffirms all of this...

" ...You've reaffirmed the fact that our financial institutions are strong and that our capital markets are functioning efficiently and effectively. "

Gotta love the Dubya,

[Freak Out]

Is anyone out there with money laying around checking out the foreclosures?? This housing bust can't last forever. Seems like there are some incredible deals out there right now.

I would hold off just a bit longer....the foreclosures should really start to climb soon.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

Is anyone out there with money laying around checking out the foreclosures?? This housing bust can't last forever. Seems like there are some incredible deals out there right now.

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I live in sub prime nirvana...az..and the mortgage brokers..and I mean real brokers..not the guy that switched from selling cars the minute the market got hot..are all telling me that at the minimum a year. Tyrone's brother, who is a very financially viable guy has his bankers saying pretty much the same.

I dont' think many on this board realize how many bad loans are out there. Those no doc loans were given to anybody with ok credit..so every bartender, waiter, person who earned off tips..got a place on. Now, they are screwed because you need to show some sorta earning..and they can't do it. They can't afford the new payments after the arm term ends..nor can they refi as they can't prove earnings.

Every week there are more commercials for REDC and buying properties at auction. Ty's crackhead friend went to buy a property that the bank had bought after foreclosure (poor bastard had left 100k in equity in the place)...house at one time valued at 650...bank offered it at 395...property sold at 375.

And, let's not forget the other countries like India, Australia, UK that are also going thru their own sub prime problems.

[The Leaper]

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I agree Ty.

On average, I would expect home prices to tumble at least another 5-10% before the housing market truly corrects itself. The supply of available homes is only going to continue to grow...and the credit crunch means there are fewer and fewer people buying.

[Partial]

It's disgusting because I keep seeing more and more condo's being built.

How many housing solutions do we really need?

[Tyrone Bigguns]

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I agree Ty.

On average, I would expect home prices to tumble at least another 5-10% before the housing market truly corrects itself. The supply of available homes is only going to continue to grow...and the credit crunch means there are fewer and fewer people buying.

Ty moved to AZ two years ago at the height of the market..when Ty's good friend had his modest 1700 sq ft. house go from 180 to 310 in less than a year. Ty was incredulous.

Ty's friend's girfriends friend had a house in Sdale valued at one time at 750k...now she is happy cause realtor getting people to look at it at 450K.

Ty heard many people tell him to buy. Ty, being the contrarian and often a pariah, said no. Ty rented and continues to do so now. Ty was told by many that he was throwing money away. Ty laughed. Ty knows that housing is not always the best investment. Ty knows that the american dream is just that..a dream.

Ty's friend is a heavyweight banker in chi-town. Ty's friend was financing a condo conversion in Tempe. Your basic college type apartment. One closet per bedroom..no storage space, etc. Ty went to the chic opening of it. Ty's fell on the ground in paroxyms of laughter when told that a 2 br/2bath/800 sq feet was 250K.

Ty will be scooping up a very nice condo next year. Ty owned a home. Ty is lazy. Ty wants no part of yard work, etc.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

It's disgusting because I keep seeing more and more condo's being built.

How many housing solutions do we really need?

Partial,

are you a commie. Are you against the free market?

[Partial]

It's disgusting because I keep seeing more and more condo's being built.

How many housing solutions do we really need?

Partial,

are you a commie. Are you against the free market?

No, but you have to wonder what is going to happen to housing prices when the supply is of epic proportions and the demand rises at the rate of the population growth.

Unfortunately, I see prices taking a nose dive. It is unfortunate because my Mom was planning on moving in the next few years.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

It's disgusting because I keep seeing more and more condo's being built.

How many housing solutions do we really need?

Partial,

are you a commie. Are you against the free market?

No, but you have to wonder what is going to happen to housing prices when the supply is of epic proportions and the demand rises at the rate of the population growth.

Unfortunately, I see prices taking a nose dive. It is unfortunate because my Mom was planning on moving in the next few years.

That is the free market. America love it..or get out.

No wondering at all. Prices will go down.

[Scott Campbell]

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I agree Ty.

On average, I would expect home prices to tumble at least another 5-10% before the housing market truly corrects itself. The supply of available homes is only going to continue to grow...and the credit crunch means there are fewer and fewer people buying.

And that is at the heart of the matter. There were people in houses who couldn't afford them to begin with. There were valid reasons that prior to 5 years ago you couldn't get a no money down home. This had to end badly.

[Scott Campbell]

Is anyone out there with money laying around checking out the foreclosures?? This housing bust can't last forever. Seems like there are some incredible deals out there right now.

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I live in sub prime nirvana...az..and the mortgage brokers..and I mean real brokers..not the guy that switched from selling cars the minute the market got hot..are all telling me that at the minimum a year. Tyrone's brother, who is a very financially viable guy has his bankers saying pretty much the same.

I dont' think many on this board realize how many bad loans are out there. Those no doc loans were given to anybody with ok credit..so every bartender, waiter, person who earned off tips..got a place on. Now, they are screwed because you need to show some sorta earning..and they can't do it. They can't afford the new payments after the arm term ends..nor can they refi as they can't prove earnings.

Every week there are more commercials for REDC and buying properties at auction. Ty's crackhead friend went to buy a property that the bank had bought after foreclosure (poor bastard had left 100k in equity in the place)...house at one time valued at 650...bank offered it at 395...property sold at 375.

And, let's not forget the other countries like India, Australia, UK that are also going thru their own sub prime problems.

Just saw this and agree completely. I also have a good friend in the sub prime business, and those boys know the score. His outlook isn't quite as rosy as you friends.

Talking with those guys makes me wonder why I got in my line of business. The (relatively) easy money is in finance - despite all the current contrary evidence.

[GoPackGo]

You ain't seen nothing yet. It will be at least another year of this.

I agree Ty.

On average, I would expect home prices to tumble at least another 5-10% before the housing market truly corrects itself. The supply of available homes is only going to continue to grow...and the credit crunch means there are fewer and fewer people buying.

And that is at the heart of the matter. There were people in houses who couldn't afford them to begin with. There were valid reasons that prior to 5 years ago you couldn't get a no money down home. This had to end badly.

I am really glad I backed out of buying my first home in 2005 for $200,000. That same home now is worth $180,000 and I would have used an ARM loan to get it. I'm still renting a house, waiting for the right time to buy one with a 30 year fixed.