VOTE - Packer Rats MOCK PACKER PICK

[TennesseePackerBacker]

Based purely on tape, since we don't have full workouts on all of these guys, and sliding from a BPA approach (best player available) to a BVA (best value available); that is the player who does the most to improve your team; the guy I like the most here is Ijalana, second is probably Watkins. Not sure how much of a problem Watkins' age is really. Ijalana is actually the #3 OL on my personal board, behind Carimi and Smith. We didn't get a workout on him, but he was one of two players who really popped out when you watched Villanova games (and they went deep into the FCS playoffs the last couple years, so I saw about 8 games), the other being RB/WR Matt Szczur who has gone off to play baseball professionally instead. I think he's probably the best guard in this class (it's him or Watkins), and not unsuited to playing tackle either, unlike a one-position player like Pouncey.

So if I'm the GM, I'm pulling the trigger on Ijalana or Watkins here, probably Ijalana though I could be convinced to go with Watkins and I think this is what Thompson may well do, just because he's a strong believer in the "there are only so many athletic big men on the planet." Breaks my heart not to take an OLB, since it's the biggest need, but I would consider moving up in the second to target an Acho or a Moch. I just can't advocate taking an RB in the first round, it's not something I would do as a GM. There's some options at WR here, but I think that we're at the top of the second tier here and the middle tiers for WRs this year are actually pretty good so you afford to wait.

Darkhorse BPA here is Notre Dame TE Kyle Rudolph. I know that McCarthy is a big fan of the two-TE offense, and if he has doubts about Finley's recovery or Quarless's development (Crabtree is a valued contributor, but he's destined to just be a spot player) I could see that being the pick, which would confuse or enrage a lot of Packer fans... which is why it's probably the pick.

Thanks for your explanation. I haven't seen any Villanova games, so Ijalana is a mystery to me. I did however watch a couple Baylor games last year, and Watkins was the anchor of that line.

If we did go reciever, I'd like to see Titus Young over Baldwin. Titus Young could be the return threat we've been missing, plus, he doesn't have a questionable work ethic like Baldwin. And you may be right, in the opinion that Rudolph is a viable darkhorse BPA.

One thing is clear, there will be plenty of value at pick 32.

[Lurker64]

This pick is still to close to call. The poll continues!

Considering that it's really a two-horse race based on the votes so far, and 10 votes have been cast for people other than the two horses, we could potentially get more clarity with a run-off poll where we eliminated, say, the people who only got one vote.

[cheesner]

BPA Ingram - easy choice.

[mraynrand]

Considering that it's really a two-horse race based on the votes so far, and 10 votes have been cast for people other than the two horses, we could potentially get more clarity with a run-off poll where we eliminated, say, the people who only got one vote.

I would take the LB given the choice between the two.

[3irty1]

lets redo the poll with just the top 3 options.

[packrulz]

RB Ingram to slip out of the first round?

Posted on: April 3, 2011 12:29 pm
If I've learned one thing in my years as an NFL Draft analyst it is that when several of us come to a consensus that Player A will be drafted by Team A at any spot other than the No. 1 overall, we're all usually wrong.

This may prove to be the case again this year.

Many draft prognosticators, including Chad Reuter and I , have pegged the Miami Dolphins to select Alabama running back Mark Ingram with the No. 15 overall pick. This selection, in fact, may be the most agreed upon pick in the entire first round, including No. 1 overall, at this point.

Which is all the more reason why I decided to investigate it further.

Though sources throughout the league certainly recognize the Dolphins' need at running back, they'd be surprised if Miami took Ingram.

One source simply didn't feel that Ingram was worth a first round pick -- something I argued vehemently .

Others thought Ingram was a "legitimate first round player," but cited the decreasing value of running backs in today's NFL as reason enough why Ingram would not only slip past Miami, but perhaps out of the first round, entirely.

"I agree with you. He's a helluva player, but history has proven that you can find running backs later in the draft," one high-ranking team source said.

"Are you really getting the bang for your buck by taking a back in the first round?"

Ingram is NFLDraftScout.com's top-rated running back and No. 12 player, overall . We view him as a first round value. Apparently, several teams, on the other hand, do not.

[Tony Oday]

Brooks Reed

[vince]

This is interesting and regarding some prospects dramatically different than what is being put forth here.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/201...-value-chart-4

[Bretsky]

This is interesting and regarding some prospects dramatically different than what is being put forth here.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/201...-value-chart-4

That IMO is a dam good analysis in one chart

[gbpackfan]

When should we end this poll?

[Bretsky]

Sunday at Midnight

Truth be told, I think most would be happy with either Ingram or Brooks Reed

Hey, who'd we pick last year ??? I can not remember what our mock draft said

Can somebody who has time bump that thread ?

[TennesseePackerBacker]

Sunday at Midnight

Truth be told, I think most would be happy with either Ingram or Brooks Reed

Hey, who'd we pick last year ??? I can not remember what our mock draft said

Can somebody who has time bump that thread ?

If I'm not mistaken, it was right on the money with Bulaga. Didn't we get Raji right as well?

[Guiness]

If I'm not mistaken, it was right on the money with Bulaga. Didn't we get Raji right as well?

If that's true, we're going to break the streak by predicting Ingram. No way in hell that happens. If his knees are ok, he goes higher, if they're wonky, he'll be lucky to go in round 2.

[Lurker64]

If that's true, we're going to break the streak by predicting Ingram. No way in hell that happens. If his knees are ok, he goes higher, if they're wonky, he'll be lucky to go in round 2.

If he were to fall to 32, I would bet Thompson would be trying to trade down aggressively. In that case, no way we'd predict the pick. I don't remember if we did a community mock back then, but we'd never have called Jordy Nelson.

[Fred's Slacks]

If he were to fall to 32, I would bet Thompson would be trying to trade down aggressively. In that case, no way we'd predict the pick. I don't remember if we did a community mock back then, but we'd never have called Jordy Nelson.

I wouldn't be suprised if we jumped on Ingram if available. Grant's coming off injury, Starks has played like 6 games in 2 years, Jackson may not be back and Nance is unknown/PS type player. TT has always preached about BPA and that you don't know where your needs are so trying to fill them is futile.

[Bretsky]

If I'm not mistaken, it was right on the money with Bulaga. Didn't we get Raji right as well?

Last yr the poll picked Anthony Davis....OT

[Fritz]

I like Justin Houston and Cam Heyward. Both could conceivably be sitting there at #32.

[Bretsky]

I like Justin Houston and Cam Heyward. Both could conceivably be sitting there at #32.

I'm with you on Houston....but Hayward....classic boom or bust kind of guy IMO. Not sure I'd want that

[Lurker64]

I wouldn't be suprised if we jumped on Ingram if available. Grant's coming off injury, Starks has played like 6 games in 2 years, Jackson may not be back and Nance is unknown/PS type player. TT has always preached about BPA and that you don't know where your needs are so trying to fill them is futile.

Except that, exception truly exceptional running backs like Adrian Peterson, running back does not offer very good positional value in the first round. Almost without exception I would rather take a running back at the end of the second, third, or fourth round than in the first. Since Ingram is not a special talent, and a top RB is not necessary to succeed in the NFL I would much rather take a second or third tier guy in the later rounds and a guy at a harder position to fill than take a top tier running back and try to find a gem at the positions that have a higher degree of difficulty to pick.

Sign me up for LeShoure, Williams, Vereen, Harper, Hunter, Jones, or Rodgers in the second or later as dictated by your board, but I would never draft a non-special RB in the first round. So if I were in the draft room at 1265 Lombardi, I would argue vehemently for a guy like Ijalana over a guy like Ingram. In terms of "positional value" I would put RB behind QB, OT, OG, OC, WR, DE, NT, OLB, CB, and about even with S, TE, and ILB (though probably behind S.) And it's not like, in our mock, there's not considerable value at some of the more valuable positions available here at #32. Ijalana or Watkins are BPA here, it's just that people don't think they are since they watch Alabama football and not Villanova or Baylor football.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Except that, exception truly exceptional running backs like Adrian Peterson, running back does not offer very good positional value in the first round. Almost without exception I would rather take a running back at the end of the second, third, or fourth round than in the first. Since Ingram is not a special talent, and a top RB is not necessary to succeed in the NFL I would much rather take a second or third tier guy in the later rounds and a guy at a harder position to fill than take a top tier running back and try to find a gem at the positions that have a higher degree of difficulty to pick.

Sign me up for LeShoure, Williams, Vereen, Harper, Hunter, Jones, or Rodgers in the second or later as dictated by your board, but I would never draft a non-special RB in the first round. So if I were in the draft room at 1265 Lombardi, I would argue vehemently for a guy like Ijalana over a guy like Ingram. In terms of "positional value" I would put RB behind QB, OT, OG, OC, WR, DE, NT, OLB, CB, and about even with S, TE, and ILB (though probably behind S.) And it's not like, in our mock, there's not considerable value at some of the more valuable positions available here at #32. Ijalana or Watkins are BPA here, it's just that people don't think they are since they watch Alabama football and not Villanova or Baylor football.

Completely agree with this. Which is why I voted for Reed.