Another boring money post

[Zool]

Wow its like he never left.

Ziggy, why do you try to argue about F'in everything. You have no idea what you are talking about. Tits or wheels, I guess.

That part was fucking amazing to read.

Partial, you have no idea what the average consumer of electronics is apparently.

Ziggy, the Apply computers are priced right along side the comparable Windows(can we fucking stop calling it PC and Mac already? PC is a person computer. Is an Apple impersonal? Fuck.) computer in the laptop market. In the desktop market Apple is still quite high because you can build your own monster Windows/Linux PC for way less with the identical hardware.

The reason there are lower cost Windows laptops is the hardware inside. Both sides build about the same cost into the laptop for the OS. The rest is hardware and R&D.

[Partial]

The faster that happens the better. However, with my experiences with rate and tax and sur charges, I'm not looking forward to the day that everything is in the cloud and pay-for-service. I think they are going to gouge the hell out of us. And then, much like ATMs, credit cards, and bank fees, they will legislate it so that the ants pay for the locusts.

I worry about that too. Data plans today are absolutely ridiculous. This is why I don't own an iPhone. Don't want to pay big bucks for the wireless when I'm surrounded by wifi all day. I don't understand how these carriers aren't hauling in ridiculous profits.

Having said that, I have to imagine that someone will disrupt this market. In the next few years, someone will introduce shared data across multiple lines that will bring the price down. After that, companies will be able to buy large data blocks. As LTE and the future gens of wireless progress, the cost to provide the data will become cheaper and cheaper. Hopefully that helps.

[3irty1]

You're really in love with PEG ratio. I'll tell you why I'm not impressed. Predictions for Apple's growth like any company's growth are affected by investor hype. With Apple and its cult-like investors the hype is insane enough to make these growth predictions wronger than usual. We're also talking about an established company not some midget, you'd have to believe that Apple is going to take over the world to think it still has obscene growth potential.

Tulip mania is the classic example of an economic bubble. Where excessive positive feedback from which optimistic investors can buy with the intention to sell to even more optimistic investors. When you run out of super optimistic investors, the music stops and lots of people are left with an investment that had become unhinged from its intrinsic value. In the 1600's in Holland this happened with tulip bulbs which became somehow valued at many times more than the yearly salary of a working class citizen. Apple's investors are more prone to this because to way too many of them AAPL isn't just another stock. They are fans like you. Pack that kind of optimism into a market's participants and you've got the recipe for a bubble. Even if the shares are only slightly overvalued now, its likely that they eventually will be regardless of the business's actual performance. That's the thing about bubbles is that they don't reveal themselves until they pop--in the meantime people think that 5 years of salary for a tulip bulb is a smoking deal. The dangers of mixing money and emotion is something to think about at least. This is why I never bet on the Packers, its more than an investment to me because I'm always wearing Green and Gold glasses.

I'm not so sure the price will ever come down on any o f it. Since I've had a cellular phone, the price has only gone up. If there was a legit interest in providing the most kickass phones for a lower monthly rate, wouldn't I be able to get a feature phone with GPS/wifi connectivity and the works? I mean that'd be 75% as useful as a phone with a data plan but 50% cheaper. Hope you're right about them going away because right now feature phones have just enough features to be the worst of both worlds. Touch screens are only as good as the software behind them and mine is the worst.

Well even back in the Jaunty days, apt-get could be handled by the synaptic package manager but these days its being slowly changed into "Ubuntu software center" which is essentially a knockoff of the apple app store filled with open source binaries and even some commercial ones. They have a completely new UI packaged with 11.04 instead of classic gnome. Dunno if you'd like it or not but Its certainly evolving much much faster than any other major OS. If it hasn't caught up yet then it will soon and the consumer's choice will boil down to "pay" or "free." The cloud trends that have us doing everything through a browser anyways benefit no OS more than Ubuntu.

[Deputy Nutz]

A home OR TWO for $60K??? Are you kidding??? You can barely sneeze at one mortgage for that.

?????

Yes, actually you can. Not nice homes that you want to raise your family in, but homes you could fix up and sell or rent.

[Partial]

You're really in love with PEG ratio.

94% of stocks follow it historically I've read. Rightfully so, it's an incredible indicator.

I'll tell you why I'm not impressed. Predictions for Apple's growth like any company's growth are affected by investor hype. With Apple and its cult-like investors the hype is insane enough to make these growth predictions wronger than usual. We're also talking about an established company not some midget, you'd have to believe that Apple is going to take over the world to think it still has obscene growth potential.

The majority of AAPL is not held by individuals. Investment houses are not fanboys. They're investing to make money. People take their allegiances out of the equation when investing anyway. You're misinformed about this.

Look at what the analysts are predicting. They had 100% growth in the past year for the most part. They'll have huge growth next year. And more the next. This isn't just one analyst. This is pretty much every analyst. Go on yahoo finance. I think they've reported that 50 out of 50 investment groups call it a Strong Buy. I haven't checked the page in a few days so it may have changed.

Well even back in the Jaunty days, apt-get could be handled by the synaptic package manager but these days its being slowly changed into "Ubuntu software center" which is essentially a knockoff of the apple app store filled with open source binaries and even some commercial ones. They have a completely new UI packaged with 11.04 instead of classic gnome. Dunno if you'd like it or not but Its certainly evolving much much faster than any other major OS. If it hasn't caught up yet then it will soon and the consumer's choice will boil down to "pay" or "free." The cloud trends that have us doing everything through a browser anyways benefit no OS more than Ubuntu.

I've seen the new UI on a netbook and it looks nice.

Check out the Win8 Metro UI preview below. So sexy.
http://www.engadget.com/2011/09/13/w...ds-on-preview/

[3irty1]

The majority of AAPL is not held by individuals. Investment houses are not fanboys. They're investing to make money. People take their allegiances out of the equation when investing anyway. You're misinformed about this.

Look at what the analysts are predicting. They had 100% growth in the past year for the most part. They'll have huge growth next year. And more the next. This isn't just one analyst. This is pretty much every analyst. Go on yahoo finance. I think they've reported that 50 out of 50 investment groups call it a strong buy. I haven't checked the page in a few days so it may have changed.

Of course not after the decade they've had Apple is a part of a bazillion funds I'm sure. It doesn't take a majority of the holders to be individuals to throw wrenches into estimates or spiral away from its intrinsic value. You are living proof as a fanboy who owns stock. I know two more, one with over a million dollars worth. The effect is there in the form of not just personal biases but also media hype. Who do you think those analysts are for? Human behavior and social movements have a monstrous impact on the market, otherwise we could all just follow the numbers and we'd all get rich.

[retailguy]

man, you leave for a couple of days, and well... I'm almost speechless. When I finish laughing, I'll weigh in.

[retailguy]

The faster that happens the better. However, with my experiences with rate and tax and sur charges, I'm not looking forward to the day that everything is in the cloud and pay-for-service. I think they are going to gouge the hell out of us. And then, much like ATMs, credit cards, and bank fees, they will legislate it so that the ants pay for the locusts.

I worry about that too. Data plans today are absolutely ridiculous. This is why I don't own an iPhone. Don't want to pay big bucks for the wireless when I'm surrounded by wifi all day. I don't understand how these carriers aren't hauling in ridiculous profits.

Having said that, I have to imagine that someone will disrupt this market. In the next few years, someone will introduce shared data across multiple lines that will bring the price down. After that, companies will be able to buy large data blocks. As LTE and the future gens of wireless progress, the cost to provide the data will become cheaper and cheaper. Hopefully that helps.

Well, the TV market is a lot more mature than the smartphone/wireless internet market.

Do we have choice there? Are there a bunch of companies out there offering cheap TV service? No? Why not?

One reason is that the barriers to entry are huge. Not very many folks can launch satellites into space. Cable companies are a regulated market. Cities and towns only allow ONE, in rare instances, TWO. Now there are occasional options for a second provider using telephone lines, but largely there isn't choice because of barriers of entry.

Costs are high, and rising.

Why will the smartphone industry be different? Cities and towns already regulate the number of towers and location of them. Barriers to entry are large, and competition is low to the point of 4 major providers. All "sub tier" providers have to use tower space from the big 4. The big 4 controls the leases, and the terms of those leases.

So, you, or me are just gonna waltz into the big 4 and demand a contract so we can "knock off" the subscriber base with cheap internet? Yeah. That's not likely to happen anytime soon. It'll take a technological shift that probably isn't even in the making, especially since clear wireless teamed up with Sprint. That was probably the best hope.

[retailguy]

You're really in love with PEG ratio.

94% of stocks follow it historically I've read. Rightfully so, it's an incredible indicator.

Incredible indicator?

Well, not from my perpective. It "can" be a good tool, but like anything else it can be abused.

Let's talk about it. My biggest issue with it is that it is a "predictor" of future events and none of those are exceptionally reliable. No one (except Jesus) can predict the future and he ain't into stocks so he doesn't weigh in.

The P/E ratio is a critical component of the calculation of the PEG. The PEG can only begin to be accurate if the P/E is accurate. Plenty of things can make it inaccurate. Some are perfectly honest, some are NOT. Just like the rest of the market (and life too).

So why can the P/E be unreliable? The P/E is determined at a given point by the market value of a company or its shares. Already built into this market price are the future expectations of a companies growth. Future growth affects share price, therefore future growth affects P/E, which affects PEG.

Next, let's look at earnings. Earnings are an accounting figure that can include non cash estimates. Earnings have to be prepared in accordance with GAAP, on the surface you might think they're all identical. But they're not. Companies have much latitude within GAAP to manipulate earnings depending on whether they have an aggressive or conservative approach to their business.

Other companies have massive underfunded pension and healthcare obligations. Guess what? Those are not reflected on their income statements and are therefore left out of the P/E ratio. That could be a major factor in the accuracy of the PEG, couldn't it? Leaving out debt would increase the P/E ratio and make the company look much more attractive than it really is....

Then there are always "one time events". For example, if you own a company that sells one of its subsidiaries for more than it's book value, this would be recorded as an increase in net earnings. This would alter the accuracy and the usability of the P/E ratio, and make PEG useless as a measure of value.

Honestly, I'm just getting started here. I haven't even really talked about a company that wanted to manipulate it's numbers. Guess how Madoff made his scheme attractive? Yep, the P/E ratio. In his case, through all kinds of markets, it stayed the same, or very similar.

I like PEG, it's a good tool. ONE tool. Free cash flow is another, and it's much harder to fake longer term.

Partial, you know enough to be dangerous. If everything falls just right, you'll make money. But if it doesn't, you'll lose your shirt, just like the Enron employees who had their retirement in stock and options.

You ridiculed me earlier for "comparing" corruption with recession. But you missed the bigger picture. To the investor, sometimes corruption can look like recession, or things other than recession. You don't know until it's too late.

I could have substituted the list I gave you to include AIG, Countrywide, GM, Chrysler, Chase, Bank of America. It wouldn't have made any difference the outcome is the SAME.

Thousands upon thousands of investors lost everything in these companies. Don't be stupid enough to be the next one. Blindly following PEG, or any other ratio for that matter, will lead you down a dark alley so fast you won't know what hit you, other than your money is now gone forever.

[retailguy]

more later. Skin I will PM you.

[MJZiggy]

I worry about that too. Data plans today are absolutely ridiculous. This is why I don't own an iPhone. Don't want to pay big bucks for the wireless when I'm surrounded by wifi all day. I don't understand how these carriers aren't hauling in ridiculous profits.

Having said that, I have to imagine that someone will disrupt this market. In the next few years, someone will introduce shared data across multiple lines that will bring the price down. After that, companies will be able to buy large data blocks. As LTE and the future gens of wireless progress, the cost to provide the data will become cheaper and cheaper. Hopefully that helps.

Wait a fucking second here!!!! All this shit you're doling out and you don't even own an iPhone? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHAAAA!!!!!!!!! You have to be absolutely shitting me! So then this begs the question: when a ringing sound comes from your pocket, exactly what device is it that you put against your ear?????

[MJZiggy]

?????

Yes, actually you can. Not nice homes that you want to raise your family in, but homes you could fix up and sell or rent.

Not where I live you can't. Studio condos around here go for more than $100K. The ones in the "rebuilding" neighborhoods usually come with a contract requirement that you live in the thing. In DC proper, gentrification is absolutely killing any kind of housing opportunity for those who aren't "gentrified."

[Patler]

Incredible indicator?

Well, not from my perpective. It "can" be a good tool, but like anything else it can be abused.

Let's talk about it. My biggest issue with it is that it is a "predictor" of future events and none of those are exceptionally reliable. No one (except Jesus) can predict the future and he ain't into stocks so he doesn't weigh in.

The P/E ratio is a critical component of the calculation of the PEG. The PEG can only begin to be accurate if the P/E is accurate. Plenty of things can make it inaccurate. Some are perfectly honest, some are NOT. Just like the rest of the market (and life too).

So why can the P/E be unreliable?

(redacted for brevity)

I agree completely, and the sad part is that as unreliable as P/E is for the reasons you gave, it is the most reliable component of PEG. The "G" part is predicted growth (either over 3 or 5 years) and historically the estimates aren't close.

A study was done by the Penn State business school covering all published estimates from Wall Street analysts over a 20 year period. Their average annual growth from their 5 year estimates was 14.9% growth. Actual growth for those companies was 9.1% That was based on a 20 year comprehensive study. They weren't much more accurate on the shorter term one year estimates. Their average annual growth from 1 year predictions was 13.8% and the actual growth was 9.8%

Their estimates miss by 50%.

PEG is like any other predictive tool, it should be used in conjunction with other factors and tools to look for consistency or inconsistency in the results. It shouldn't be relied on too heavily in and of itself.

[SkinBasket]

more later. Skin I will PM you.

Thanks. If nothing else, I'll probably need some help in how to find reliable help.

[mraynrand]

Not where I live you can't. Studio condos around here go for more than $100K. The ones in the "rebuilding" neighborhoods usually come with a contract requirement that you live in the thing. In DC proper, gentrification is absolutely killing any kind of housing opportunity for those who aren't "gentrified."

That's also because of the boom in gubmint jobs. You should see it out in the manufacturing wasteland.

[Little Whiskey]

That's also because of the boom in gubmint jobs. You should see it out in the manufacturing wasteland.

no shit! for 60k you can own the east side of Michigan.

[Partial]

Wait a fucking second here!!!! All this shit you're doling out and you don't even own an iPhone? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHAAAA!!!!!!!!! You have to be absolutely shitting me! So then this begs the question: when a ringing sound comes from your pocket, exactly what device is it that you put against your ear?????

? I don't see the relevance to the discussion. I also don't see what's funny. My opinions on the stock, the products, etc are looking at it from a completely unbiased fair perspective. They're looking at it from an interested 3rd party looking to invest in the best product in an expanding field.

IThousands upon thousands of investors lost everything in these companies. Don't be stupid enough to be the next one. Blindly following PEG, or any other ratio for that matter, will lead you down a dark alley so fast you won't know what hit you, other than your money is now gone forever.

Agreed. I don't do anything blindly. Some of the best advice I've gotten was from you where you said don't invest in something you don't understand. Apple has tons of cash, crazy good PE and PEG. They have the best product on the market by far. PEG is followed by something like 94% of stocks. That's a pretty good indication.

Well, the TV market is a lot more mature than the smartphone/wireless internet market.

Do we have choice there? Are there a bunch of companies out there offering cheap TV service? No? Why not?

Yes we do. Broadcast television. Hulu. Etc. Having said that, I see your point and it does suck.

One reason is that the barriers to entry are huge. Not very many folks can launch satellites into space. Cable companies are a regulated market. Cities and towns only allow ONE, in rare instances, TWO. Now there are occasional options for a second provider using telephone lines, but largely there isn't choice because of barriers of entry.

Costs are high, and rising.

Why will the smartphone industry be different? Cities and towns already regulate the number of towers and location of them. Barriers to entry are large, and competition is low to the point of 4 major providers. All "sub tier" providers have to use tower space from the big 4. The big 4 controls the leases, and the terms of those leases.

So, you, or me are just gonna waltz into the big 4 and demand a contract so we can "knock off" the subscriber base with cheap internet? Yeah. That's not likely to happen anytime soon. It'll take a technological shift that probably isn't even in the making, especially since clear wireless teamed up with Sprint. That was probably the best hope.

You're already seeing change agents, though. Small, regional companies like Cricket are coming in, leasing the same towers the big boys use, and going with the pre-paid model that is used in the vast majority of the rest of the world. They're able to offer much lower prices, though handsets are ridiculously expensive (since they're unsubsidized). It'll be great once everyone uses the sim and unlocks handsets become the norm. Then the carriers will really have to compete on price and that will be a great thing. With Verizon going to LTE and Spring soon making the change, this will get us one step closer to this.

Having said that, phone data isn't like cable TV. There isn't one carrier. There are 7 carriers in my area that people use. Once these guys ditch the ridiculous CDMA/wimax standard and get on a unified standard such as LTE, costs will come down over time as these guys are forced to compete for customers. Open market will solve that problem. Let's hope it remains open.

[mraynrand]

Partial, what cell phone do you have?

[Partial]

On an unrelated note, ARM is gonna continue with explosive growth. They understand the principals that Intel seemingly does not with power consumption. I do like the companies growth potential but the stock looks overvalued right now.

Windows 8 Metro UI looks incredible. I'm in love. This is by far the most user friendly product microsoft has ever come out with. I haven't seen anything this innovative out of Redmond in years!

I'm gonna have to do some research and figure out who's the exec responsible for driving this product and obviously getting the attention of Ballmer and saying "Hey, our product sucks, we need to make a big time radical shift and fix it".

http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/13/sorry-...t-post-pc-era/

I really, really, really hope most apps can run in the shell and not have to go to the Windows UI we all know and loathe. The shell is so beautiful and user friendly! It abstracts all of the nastiness of computing!

[Little Whiskey]

Partial, what cell phone do you have?

the zack morris phone