At the risk of derailing the discussion, this thread's discussion of Neal raises a question for which I have never been able to find a satisfactory answer. Is a past injury history a good predictor of future injuries?

Some players have multiple injuries and eventually washout. Others never get injured. Still others get injured a few times and then never get injured again. I would imagine that some injuries have could increase the chance of further injury (reconstructive ACL surgery might mean a higher risk of re-tearing the ACL), while others do not (getting turf toe won't mean you are likely to tear your meniscus).

I do not know the answer, one way or the other, but it is always discussed as if it was an indisputable fact, if a player has been injured several times, he is likely to be injured again. Should I just accept this as a solid argument, or is there a reason to be skeptical?