ARE WE GIVING AROD A FREE PASS ??????????????????

[yetisnowman]

[QUOTE=mraynrand;827275]really? Well, then you need to get deep in the weeds and analyze each play of each game to determine culpability for 'lack of comeback' because in other comeback attempts, Rodgers is either getting planted, guys are dropping passes, or they're running incorrect routes. Either way, you're in trouble because as a casual fan you're gonna have difficulty assigning a missed connection to the QB or WR - see Rodgers to Finley, 2011 Divisional game for example.[/QU

If i felt like dropped passes and receivers running the wrong route were the rule and not the exception I would agree with you.

With a big enough sample size these things tend to even out with qbs. Is Arod the unluckiest qb ever? No. The Packers aren't the only team that struggles in special teams and has drops sometimes. Remember Welker's huge drop in the 2011 super bowl?

[Smidgeon]

You would think then that every QB's "comeback" numbers would be dampened by these types of misfortunes, right, given a large enough sample space? Is Rodgers really the only victim of this?

There are two areas that have been further pursued; one was 538 breaking down late INTs, as an estimate of risk taking late. The other was either Chase Stuart or Scott Kacsmar doing a breakdown of defensive breakdowns after its team (and its QB) had retaken the lead. Guess what? Rodgers was among the leaders in his defense giving up a lead. Both these sets of data are in threads on this site.

Yes. While other QBs are the victim of this and other QBs would benefit from this type of analysis, what we're saying here is due to Sanders/Capers/Slocum/defense/special teams, Rodgers in general hasn't had the other parts of the team bail him out as much as other QBs have. The Bears defenses consistently putting Cutler in a position to win are a great example of this.

I'm not saying that Rodgers can't improve. He can. But this metric--due to our recent bad Q4 defenses--puts him on the other end of the spectrum from Tom Brady and Russel Wilson.

[mraynrand]

You would think then that every QB's "comeback" numbers would be dampened by these types of misfortunes, right, given a large enough sample space? Is Rodgers really the only victim of this?

No, it depends on the relative quality of the receivers and whether they are 'clutch.' So you need deep analysis of all receivers and expert analysis by people familiar with the routes, etc.

And better QBs might be even MORE victimized as eventually their greatness and $$ tend to reduce the quality of available receivers. Making Tom Brady all the more impressive. Even Bert had some great comebacks throwing the ball to a collection of losers, like Kittrick Taylor, Corey Bradford, Jeff Thomason, and David Martin. Fortunately, Favre sucked enough to put himself in position for some awesome comebacks, making him collectively better than Rodgers, who typically refuses to throw early interceptions that put the Packers in a hole from which he can then rescue them.

[Striker]

I know I for one would rather have a clutch QB who maybe is barely .500 in his career than a QB who is only a frontrunner and chokes in one score games despite a sterling regular season record and actual playoff appearances.

[Smidgeon]

I know I for one would rather have a clutch QB who maybe is barely .500 in his career than a QB who is only a frontrunner and chokes in one score games despite a sterling regular season record and actual playoff appearances.

Peyton Manning?

[denverYooper]

Peyton Manning?

Eli.

[woodbuck27]

No, it depends on the relative quality of the receivers and whether they are 'clutch.' So you need deep analysis of all receivers and expert analysis by people familiar with the routes, etc.

And better QBs might be even MORE victimized as eventually their greatness and $$ tend to reduce the quality of available receivers. Making Tom Brady all the more impressive. Even Bert had some great comebacks throwing the ball to a collection of losers, like Kittrick Taylor, Corey Bradford, Jeff Thomason, and David Martin. Fortunately, Favre sucked enough to put himself in position for some awesome comebacks, making him collectively better than Rodgers, who typically refuses to throw early interceptions that put the Packers in a hole from which he can then rescue them.

Good.

[yetisnowman]

I am not being defensive. I am trying to understand what the actual measurements are and how they actually work. It seems like YS method penalizes teams that are offensively explosive or start fast in games and win. I pointed out that our 19 game winning streak, which included a Super Bowl, earned ARod zero on YS rating scale.

Football is such a team game that it is very hard to blame a QB for winning or losing just on the last drive or a "clutch factor" in a game.

The perfect example to me is the Seattle game. If Ha Ha knocks down Wilson's balloon ball prayer two point conversion or instead of jumping to go after the ball tackles the TE after he catched the ball short of the end zone, ARod would be deemed clutch for leading the team down for a FG to win the game. Instead, ARod isn't clutch and gets blamed in this thread.

Again this is not the end all be all of stats, and it is not my scale. I didn't come up with it. It removes some context, I am not disputing that. And "my" scale is referring to when he has had the OPPORTUNITY to lead us on a game winning drive/fourth quarter comeback and failed. It has nothing to do with blowout wins, and of course blowout wins have nothing to do with Aaron's lack of clutchness.

We could go around and around on the Seattle game, yes the 2 point conversion was maddening...among other plays. But I could easily argue that if Aaron is more competent and accurate in the first half we are up 26-7 or 29-7 with 5 minutes left.

[Joemailman]

I know I for one would rather have a clutch QB who maybe is barely .500 in his career than a QB who is only a frontrunner and chokes in one score games despite a sterling regular season record and actual playoff appearances.

Eli.

If he's talking about Eli, I might point out that the Giants scored 21 and 17 points in those games. It was the ability of the Giants defense to shut down Brady that was primarily responsible for the Giants victories.

[pbmax]

You would think then that every QB's "comeback" numbers would be dampened by these types of misfortunes, right, given a large enough sample space? Is Rodgers really the only victim of this?

We have that data:

QB		4QC W	4QC L	Pct.	Rk	LC	Adj. W	Adj. L	Pct.	Rk	Diff.	Rk
Brandon Weeden	1	10	0.091	30	3	4	7	0.364	24	0.273	1
Aaron Rodgers	6	25	0.194	27	8	14	17	0.452	14	0.258	2
Russell Wilson	8	8	0.500	3	4	12	4	0.750	1	0.250	3
Drew Brees	23	42	0.354	12	13	36	29	0.554	6	0.200	4
Cam Newton	6	17	0.261	23	4	10	13	0.435	16	0.174	5
Joe Flacco	12	23	0.343	14	6	18	17	0.514	8	0.171	6
Matt Stafford	10	22	0.313	17	5	15	17	0.469	12	0.156	7
Eli Manning	25	31	0.446	6	7	32	24	0.571	4	0.125	8
Matt Cassel	8	17	0.320	16	3	11	14	0.440	15	0.120	9
Matt Schaub	11	26	0.297	21	4	15	22	0.405	19	0.108	10
Roethlisberger	23	34	0.404	9	6	29	28	0.509	10	0.105	11
Michael Vick	12.5	25.5	0.329	15	4	16.5	21.5	0.434	17	0.105	12
Andy Dalton	6	14	0.300	19	2	8	12	0.400	20	0.100	13
Carson Palmer	17	43	0.283	22	6	23	37	0.383	21	0.100	14
Chris Ponder	1.5	8.5	0.150	29	1	2.5	7.5	0.250	29	0.100	15
Peyton Manning	40	47	0.460	5	7	47	40	0.540	7	0.080	16
Tony Romo	20	30	0.400	10	4	24	26	0.480	11	0.080	17
Matt Ryan	18	23	0.439	7	3	21	20	0.512	9	0.073	18
Tom Brady	31	28	0.525	2	4	35	24	0.593	3	0.068	19
Andrew Luck	8	7	0.533	1	1	9	6	0.600	2	0.067	20
Ryan Tannehill	5	11	0.313	18	1	6	10	0.375	23	0.063	21
Robert G III	4	12	0.250	24	1	5	11	0.313	26	0.063	22
C Kaepernick	4.5	4.5	0.500	4	1	5	4	0.556	5	0.056	23
Jason Campbell	7	29	0.194	25	2	9	27	0.250	27	0.056	24
Fitzpatrick	7	29	0.194	26	2	9	27	0.250	28	0.056	25
Philip Rivers	17	40	0.298	20	3	20	37	0.351	25	0.053	26
Chad Henne	4	18	0.182	28	1	5	17	0.227	30	0.045	27
Alex Smith	11	18	0.379	11	1	12	17	0.414	18	0.034	28
Sam Bradford	5.5	10.5	0.344	13	1	6	10	0.375	22	0.031	29
Jay Cutler	16	21	0.432	8	1	17	20	0.459	13	0.027	30

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clu...ounters-week-1

[yetisnowman]

We have that data:

QB		4QC W	4QC L	Pct.	Rk	LC	Adj. W	Adj. L	Pct.	Rk	Diff.	Rk
Brandon Weeden	1	10	0.091	30	3	4	7	0.364	24	0.273	1
Aaron Rodgers	6	25	0.194	27	8	14	17	0.452	14	0.258	2
Russell Wilson	8	8	0.500	3	4	12	4	0.750	1	0.250	3
Drew Brees	23	42	0.354	12	13	36	29	0.554	6	0.200	4
Cam Newton	6	17	0.261	23	4	10	13	0.435	16	0.174	5
Joe Flacco	12	23	0.343	14	6	18	17	0.514	8	0.171	6
Matt Stafford	10	22	0.313	17	5	15	17	0.469	12	0.156	7
Eli Manning	25	31	0.446	6	7	32	24	0.571	4	0.125	8
Matt Cassel	8	17	0.320	16	3	11	14	0.440	15	0.120	9
Matt Schaub	11	26	0.297	21	4	15	22	0.405	19	0.108	10
Roethlisberger	23	34	0.404	9	6	29	28	0.509	10	0.105	11
Michael Vick	12.5	25.5	0.329	15	4	16.5	21.5	0.434	17	0.105	12
Andy Dalton	6	14	0.300	19	2	8	12	0.400	20	0.100	13
Carson Palmer	17	43	0.283	22	6	23	37	0.383	21	0.100	14
Chris Ponder	1.5	8.5	0.150	29	1	2.5	7.5	0.250	29	0.100	15
Peyton Manning	40	47	0.460	5	7	47	40	0.540	7	0.080	16
Tony Romo	20	30	0.400	10	4	24	26	0.480	11	0.080	17
Matt Ryan	18	23	0.439	7	3	21	20	0.512	9	0.073	18
Tom Brady	31	28	0.525	2	4	35	24	0.593	3	0.068	19
Andrew Luck	8	7	0.533	1	1	9	6	0.600	2	0.067	20
Ryan Tannehill	5	11	0.313	18	1	6	10	0.375	23	0.063	21
Robert G III	4	12	0.250	24	1	5	11	0.313	26	0.063	22
C Kaepernick	4.5	4.5	0.500	4	1	5	4	0.556	5	0.056	23
Jason Campbell	7	29	0.194	25	2	9	27	0.250	27	0.056	24
Fitzpatrick	7	29	0.194	26	2	9	27	0.250	28	0.056	25
Philip Rivers	17	40	0.298	20	3	20	37	0.351	25	0.053	26
Chad Henne	4	18	0.182	28	1	5	17	0.227	30	0.045	27
Alex Smith	11	18	0.379	11	1	12	17	0.414	18	0.034	28
Sam Bradford	5.5	10.5	0.344	13	1	6	10	0.375	22	0.031	29
Jay Cutler	16	21	0.432	8	1	17	20	0.459	13	0.027	30

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clu...ounters-week-1

That is interesting. Basically what it concludes is the Packers are one of the worst teams in those situations with Rodgers as their qb. And that their defense and special teams contribute more to these failures than almost any other team. So after a detailed thorough, evaluation how does A-Rod perform in crunch time, with the game on the line................??????

Average.

For a 2 time MVP, and what people like to claim is the best qb to ever play, I still contend that is not good enough. Especially when all the qbs that are statistically better than him in this regard, look to play for teams we will likely have to beat in close games on the way to a title.

[pbmax]

Average.

For a 2 time MVP, and what people like to claim is the best qb to ever play, I still contend that is not good enough. Especially when all the qbs that are statistically better than him in this regard, look to play for teams we will likely have to beat in close games on the way to a title.

That is just with Defense subtracted. They haven't yet dealt with ST or the coach.

[woodbuck27]

I just watched this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blrmdIfXPwI

if I was Mike McCarthy I'd watch this video once a week and fully get a grip on how lucky I am to have Aaron Rodgers as my teams QB !

If I was Mike McCarthy I'd take all that was 2011-15 and rip it up and begin a new scrap book.

On the cover I'd write 2015 and ....New Beginning.

I'd come to full terms with my failures and needs to revise/change. I'd look for any input from anyone who might offer advice:

Coachs and players to the fella that cleans out my waste paper basket....all have a respected say in 'The New Beginning'.

I'd ensure a brand new Green Bay Packers that over the course of next season looks like the NO. 1 Team in the NFL. I'd coach my team every day and in every game for every minute to better ensure VICTORY ! I'd call plays to win every game big. I wouldn't call plays not to lose.

[yetisnowman]

That is just with Defense subtracted. They haven't yet dealt with ST or the coach.

Sigh....Jesus. I really don't think our special teams and coaching contribute to last minute losses much more than the average team. You think McCarthy is questionable, I live in Atlanta. Mike Smith made objectively horrible decisions with clock management that cost them 3 games this season alone.
I'm not even sure how you would adjust wins for coaching, but anyway I would doubt even with wins adjusted that would bump A-rod more than a spot or two.

[pbmax]

Sigh....Jesus. I really don't think our special teams and coaching contribute to last minute losses much more than the average team. You think McCarthy is questionable, I live in Atlanta. Mike Smith made objectively horrible decisions with clock management that cost them 3 games this season alone.
I'm not even sure how you would adjust wins for coaching, but anyway I would doubt even with wins adjusted that would bump A-rod more than a spot or two.

You might think that, but remember that the Head Coach's plan in tight games with a tight lead is to take the ball out of his Quarterback's hands.

Also, from your earlier comment, I don't think I have seen any commenters on this site claim Rodgers is the best ever. Best currently playing? Yes. Best INT rate? Yes. Best Passer Rating ever? Yes. But not greatest of all time.

[Striker]

If he's talking about Eli, I might point out that the Giants scored 21 and 17 points in those games. It was the ability of the Giants defense to shut down Brady that was primarily responsible for the Giants victories.

Really I'm talking about the earlier references to 4th quarter comebacks from the likes of Cutler or Stafford. Though Eli is another good choice. It's a team sport, and the big deal being made about Rodgers "clutch-ness" is a bit of baloney. Yes, he can play better, but it is a team game as well. It's basically rehashing earlier arguments that went on during the early years when he was constantly being compared to Favre and his many comebacks.

[yetisnowman]

You might think that, but remember that the Head Coach's plan in tight games with a tight lead is to take the ball out of his Quarterback's hands.

Also, from your earlier comment, I don't think I have seen any commenters on this site claim Rodgers is the best ever. Best currently playing? Yes. Best INT rate? Yes. Best Passer Rating ever? Yes. But not greatest of all time.

Ok agree to disagree. I think that if all the numbers were hashed out and analyzed that his performance in late game situations with the game on the line, needing a drive or a score or a key couple of first downs....we would find that that is likely the weakest part of his all around game. Compared especially to how great he is in all other areas.

[woodbuck27]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/fo...icle-1.2080583

Limping to the Finish Line: Packers' Aaron Rodgers is just latest injured quarterback trying to get to Super Bowl

Several quarterbacks have played with significant playoff injuries, and two — the Bears’ Jim McMahon and the Cowboys’ Troy Aikman — have won the Super Bowl. No one, however, has made an entire run through the postseason while playing hurt, as Rodgers is hoping to do.

[Rutnstrut]

I will say in AR's defense that the shitty defense the last few years has not helped him. Just as some of those shitty defenses years ago put Favre in the position that he had to do it all. The difference being that Rodgers won't take the same chances to win. I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but I can see at times where people would think he is stat whoring.

[Delbert Shims]

You people really need to lay off Aaron. He's the best QB the Packers have had since Bart Starr.
Watching Brett Favre play, was always a sphincter muscle clinch so tight, you could not have pulled
a needle out of it with one of those Interstate Wreckers, that pulls a Semi Tractor and its trailer,
off it;s side and once again upright, like it was a Tonka Toy, on that Weather Channel. Reality Show.
I love the Weather Channel. Never had much use for "No Risk No Reward" from Missisippiss.
Where the local fly is the size of an adult sparrow.

Del