ARE WE GIVING AROD A FREE PASS ??????????????????

[George Cumby]

OK, now do Brady

Then do Manning.

[ThunderDan]

So in conclusion, the Rodgers-led Packers are 10-25 in close (one score) games in which they were behind in the 4th quarter.

Of the 25 losses, 7 are truly and completely the defense's fault.
Therefore, of the 25 losses, the Packers had a reasonable chance to win in 18 of them.

So I'd say that Rodgers' adjusted record in close games is 10-18. This is definitely something I'd like to see him improve.

So we know that Rodgers is 76-38 as a starter. So in non-close games we are 66-20. That should really point to how good our offense has been over the last 7 years with ARod at the helm.

I already see where your stats are wrong. ARod did lead GB back to a tie in the SEA game so he was 3 of 4 this year. So that makes him 11-17? Who knows? How do you grade that one out? Ugh, I don't want to think about that game any more.

[th87]

So we know that Rodgers is 76-38 as a starter. So in non-close games we are 66-20. That should really point to how good our offense has been over the last 7 years with ARod at the helm.

I already see where your stats are wrong. ARod did lead GB back to a tie in the SEA game so he was 3 of 4 this year. So that makes him 11-17? Who knows? How do you grade that one out? Ugh, I don't want to think about that game any more.

That would fall under category 5:

5. Of losses, times lead or tie achieved, but defense gave up lead/tie with no chance to come back:

Losses like this were removed to arrive at the adjustment.

Not wrong.

[th87]

So we know that Rodgers is 76-38 as a starter. So in non-close games we are 66-20. That should really point to how good our offense has been over the last 7 years with ARod at the helm.

This is true, but we are not discussing this.

[ThunderDan]

This is true, but we are not discussing this.

So many reasons why that game was f'cked up on so many levels.
But not many seem to be focusing on Aaron Rodgers
Does he get a free pass due to the calf ?

If you want to be that way about it, I think this is what this thread is really about.

I think thread drift is allowed.

[Joemailman]

Where would this forum be without thread drift? Oh wait, can we discuss thread drift in this thread?

[Smidgeon]

If you want to be that way about it, I think this is what this thread is really about.

I think thread drift is allowed.

I've never heard that expression before, but I like it.

[ThunderDan]

So we know that Rodgers is 76-38 as a starter. So in non-close games we are 66-20. That should really point to how good our offense has been over the last 7 years with ARod at the helm.

I already see where your stats are wrong. ARod did lead GB back to a tie in the SEA game so he was 3 of 4 this year. So that makes him 11-17? Who knows? How do you grade that one out? Ugh, I don't want to think about that game any more.

Then I am wrong here.

ARod is in fact 66-13 in non-close games. So as a starter ARod has won 57.9% of his start by a large margin. I wonder how that compares to other starting QBs with at least 80 starts.

It also points out that in 114 starts GB has only lost a non-close game 13 times or 11.4%. I wonder how that stacks up against other QBs.

[th87]

Then I am wrong here.

ARod is in fact 66-13 in non-close games. So as a starter ARod has won 57.9% of his start by a large margin. I wonder how that compares to other starting QBs with at least 80 starts.

It also points out that in 114 starts GB has only lost a non-close game 13 times or 11.4%. I wonder how that stacks up against other QBs.

My analysis only counts games in which we were tied or behind by one possession in the 4th quarter. It doesn't count games in which we were ahead the whole game and ended up winning narrowly.

In going back, I also noticed a distressing amount of games in which we jumped out to a 2+ possession lead, and ended up winning by only one possession.

[Smidgeon]

My analysis only counts games in which we were tied or behind by one possession in the 4th quarter. It doesn't count games in which we were ahead the whole game and ended up winning narrowly.

In going back, I also noticed a distressing amount of games in which we jumped out to a 2+ possession lead, and ended up winning by only one possession.

To me, that's less a sign of distress and more a sign of managing the clock to guarantee a victory. I'd be more concerned about (if) the games where they had a two possession lead and lost. **cough**

[George Cumby]

I've never heard that expression before, but I like it.

That's because threads don't drift here, they veer madly off course.

[th87]

To me, that's less a sign of distress and more a sign of managing the clock to guarantee a victory. I'd be more concerned about (if) the games where they had a two possession lead and lost. **cough**

I just don't like that approach. Dance with the girl who brought you there. There have been too many situations where we've had to rely on a final stop to seal the victory. Finally bit us in the ass.

[th87]

Based on the "4th Quarter Comeback" game analysis for a Rodgers-led offense, here are the numbers I've come up with:

1. Total opportunities to tie or go ahead:

2008: 8
2009: 6
2010: 5
2011: 1
2012: 7
2013: 4
2014: 4
Total: 35

2. Wins:

2008: 0/8
2009: 2/6
2010: 1/5
2011: 1/1
2012: 3/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 2/4
Total: 10/35

3. Of losses, times tied with a chance to add:

2008: 2/8
2009: 1/6
2010: 2/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 0/7
2013: 0/4
2014: 0/4
Total: 5/35

4. Of losses, times lead taken, lead given up by defense, but still time to win:

2008: 2/8
2009: 0/6
2010: 0/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 1/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 0/4
Total: 4/35

5. Of losses, times lead or tie achieved, but defense gave up lead/tie with no chance to come back:

2008: 0/8
2009: 1/6
2010: 2/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 2/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 1/4
Total: 7/35

6. Times unsuccessful in achieving tie or go-ahead score:

2008: 4/8 (2 missed FGs)
2009: 2/6
2010: 0/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 1/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 1/4
Total: 9/35

I've decided to break "Wins" into the following categories for further context:

1. Wins where an opponent drive was impossible after Packers score (too little time remaining, e.g <1:00):

2008: 0/8
2009: 0/6
2010: 0/5
2011: 1/1
2012: 0/7
2013: 1/4
2014: 1/4
Total: 3/35

2. Wins where only 1 defensive stop preserved the victory after a Packers go-ahead score:

2008: 0/8
2009: 1/6
2010: 0/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 2/7
2013: 0/4
2014: 1/4
Total: 4/35

3. Wins where more than one defensive stop preserved the victory after a Packers go-ahead score:

2008: 0/8
2009: 1/6
2010: 1/5
2011: 0/1
2012: 1/7
2013: 0/4
2014: 0/4
Total: 3/35

[woodbuck27]

My analysis only counts games in which we were tied or behind by one possession in the 4th quarter. It doesn't count games in which we were ahead the whole game and ended up winning narrowly.

In going back, I also noticed a distressing amount of games in which we jumped out to a 2+ possession lead, and ended up winning by only one possession.

I'm imagining:

" I'll take responsibility for that. I like to keep it fun." Mike McCarthy (satire)

[th87]

Brady's 4th Quarter comeback opportunities:

2009:

BUF: Down 24-13 with 5:38 remaining, Patriots score a TD with 2:10 remaining (conversion fails). 24-19. Buffalo fumbles ensuing kickoff at own 31, and Brady throws a TD with 0:55 left (conversion fails). 25-24.
@NYJ: Down 16-9 in the 4th, the Patriots are unable to score, despite multiple drives.
@DEN: Tied 17-17, 4 consecutive drives by the Patriots and Broncos stall, and in OT, Denver gets the ball and scores.
@IND: Colts score go-ahead TD with 0:16 remaining to take 35-34 lead.
@MIA: Dolphins kick go-ahead FG with 1:07 remaining. Brady is intercepted with 0:42 remaining.
@HOU: Tied at 27, Brady throws an interception and gets knocked out of the game. Texans score go ahead TD with 2:00 left.

2010:

@NYJ: Down 21-14 in the 4th, Brady throws an interception, followed by a Patriots stop, then a failed Patriots drive, then a Jets TD with 6:16 left, and another failed Patriots drive to end the game.
BAL: Down 20-17, Patriots kick a tying FG with 1:54 to go. Patriots get a stop with 0:59 left, but Brady throws an interception at the end of regulation. In OT, the Ravens get the ball, but are stopped. There are 4 more stops, and the Patriots finally get the winning FG on the following drive.
GB: Down 27-24 with 9:38 remaining, Brady throws a TD with 7:19 to go. Packers are stopped twice more to preserve the lead.

2011:

@BUF: Down 31-24 because of a Brady pick-6 with 10:32 to go, the Patriots drive to tie the game with 3:33 remaining. Bills drive and kick winning FG with 0:03 left.
DAL: Down 16-13 with 2:31 to go, the Patriots drive, capped off by a Brady TD pass 0:27 remaining.
@PIT: Steelers are up 23-17 and give the ball back to the Patriots with 0:28 to go. Brady suffers a safety.
NYG: Down 17-13 with 3:07 remaining, the Patriots drive and throw a TD with 1:40 to go. Giants then come back and score a TD with 0:19 left.

Playoffs:
BAL: Down 20-16, the Patriots score a TD with 11:33 to go. The Patriots make 3 stops (lucky ones with Lee Evans and the Cundiff miss).
NYG: Giants score to grab a 21-17 lead with 1:04 remaining. The Patriots run out of time.

2012:

AZ: Up 20-18, Cardinals fumble at own 30 with 1:10 to go. Patriots miss FG with time running out.
@SEA: Down 24-23 with 1:14 to go, the Patriots turn it over on downs.
NYJ: Down 26-23 with 1:32 to go, the Patriots tie with 0:05 to go, kick another FG on the first possession in OT, and stop the Jets.
SF: Patriots manage to tie at 31, with 6:45 to go. 49ers score TD on next drive, Patriots punt, 49ers punt, Patriots punt, 49ers kick a FG, Patriots kick a FG, and time runs out.

Playoffs:

BAL: Ravens take a 20-13 lead at the beginning of the 4th. Patriots are forced to punt on the following drive, and the Ravens score another TD in response. The Patriots next 3 drives are unsuccessful.

2013:

@BUF: Down 21-20 with 4:31 to go, the Patriots drive to kick the winning FG with 0:09 remaining.
@CIN: Down 13-6 with 3:26 remaining, the Patriots fail to score on two drives.
@NO: Down 27-23 with 1:13 to go, Brady throws a TD with 0:10 to go.
@NYJ: Down 27-24 with 2:10 to go, the Patriots kick a FG with 0:19 remaining to force OT. Patriots forced to punt in OT, and the Jets drive and kick the game winner.
@CAR: Down 17-10, the Patriots tie with 12:37, and take the lead with 6:36. Carolina then scores TD with 1:09 left, and Brady throws interception with 0:03 to go.
DEN: Down 24-21, the Patriots score a TD with 13:21 to go, adding a FG with 7:41 to go. Broncos tie with 3:10 to go. The following 5 Patriots and Broncos drives stall (3 in OT), and then Patriots score winning FG.
@HOU: Down 31-28, Patriots tie with 7:21 left, get a stop, and kick another FG with 3:15 to go. Patriots get another stop to end the game.
CLE: After scoring a TD to cut lead to 26-21, Patriots win onside kick with 1:04 remaining, and score a TD with 0:35 to go.
@MIA: Down 17-13, Patriots score TD with 4:14 to go. Dolphins score TD with 1:21. Brady throws interception at Dolphins 14 with 0:07 left.

2014:

@MIA: Down 23-20 in the 4th quarter, two Patriot drives stall, allowing the Dolphins to score again, putting the game out of reach.
@GB: Down 26-21, the Patriots are stopped.
@SD: Down 14-13, the Patriots kick a FG with 10:34 left. After a defensive stop, the Patriots add a TD with 8:53 to go. Patriots get two more stops to preserve the win.
@NYJ: Down 13-10, the Patriots score a TD with 13:56 to go. Jets kick a FG to cut it to 17-16. Brady throws an INT, and the Patriots block the ensuing FG. Patriots run out the clock.

Playoffs:
BAL: Down 31-28 with 10:10 to go, the Patriots score a TD with 5:21 left. Patriots get a stop and another on a Hail Mary.
SEA: Down 24-14 with 12:10 remaining, the Patriots score a TD with 8:00 to go, get a stop with 6:52 left, and score another TD with 2:06 to go. Patriots defense gets one last stop.

Analysis to follow.

[mraynrand]

trouble sleeping?

[th87]

trouble sleeping?

Haha yes, I had to know. Good thing it's Saturday.