Julius Peppers - random thoughts and discussion

[Patler]

Some random thoughts about a unique player, stemming from an article in the GBPG:

http://www.packersnews.com/story/spo...pers/70515716/

First, his basic stats from last year:

- 901 snaps on defense, 73.9% of the teams total plays on defense
- 44 tackles
- 7 sacks
- 4 forced fumbles
- 11 pass deflections
- 2 interceptions (both returned for touchdowns)

Rock solid performance for anyone, let alone a 34 year old playing on a new team in a new scheme.

Now, looking beyond the basics:

- He dropped in pass coverage only 39 times. Maybe the change he was asked to make wasn't that great?
- He missed no practices all year. That's unusual for any player, let alone a player with as much mileage as Peppers.

Several of the Packer pundits "assured" their readers that Peppers would either be released or required to renegotiate his $12 million cap figure for 2015. They appear to have been wrong.

[vince]

His cost this year is $9.5 mil I believe - not $12. I think there were some bonuses that he didn't get. Coming off the year he had, he's worth that I'd say.

He has a lot of mileage but he seems to take pretty good care of himself. He's 35 now, so they'll have to keep a close eye on him this year. Experience can make up for quite a bit but the Packers need him to keep making big plays like he did last year.

I could see his snap count going down a bit this year. I'm hoping Elliot makes a jump.

[Patler]

His cost this year is $9.5 mil I believe - not $12. I think there were some bonuses that he didn't get. Coming off the year he had, he's worth that I'd say.

I think you are mixing two different figures. I mentioned his cap figure for 2015, which I believe still remains at $12 million. His "cost" this year is $9.5 million ($8.5 million salary and $500,000 each for a roster bonus and workout bonus) His cap figure includes $2.5 million of his signing bonus, for a total of $12 million against the 2015 cap.

The cap figure is what some writers found unacceptable.

What he didn't earn in performance last year I believe were true performance bonuses, which would have been taken against the 2014 cap. To count against the 2015 cap they would have had to have been salary escalators. Maybe they were, but I never heard them described in that way.

Whatever the unearned money was, his cost against the 2015 cap is $12 million from everything I have seen.

[vince]

Right. I was confusing cash with cap going from memory. Here's the cap situation by player for 2015.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/

I don't think you can blame Thompson for honoring that after last year's production, but I do think the contract was structured to minimize their risk last year to offset a potential decline. The snap count and practice availability was a good surprise last year. At his age I hope they manage that a bit more this year.

Peppers has such unique athleticism for his size and rare ability to make big plays at big times but also has been accused of disappearing for stretches.

Next year his cap hit is $10.5 mil ($8 mil cash) with $2.5 dead money if he's cut. With another productive year he may play out his whole contract. When he was signed not many would have predicted that.

[Guiness]

Random thoughts my ass. A link to the source material and observations laid out in a bulleted list and a closing statement, lol. Although somehow I believe that is about as 'random' as Patler gets!

Peppers was absolutely worth the money last year and has given no indication that he has started to decline. If you told any GM in the league he's get the numbers you posted for $12M, he'd hit it like Ron Jeremy

[Rutnstrut]

Meh, I could take him or leave him. The plays he takes off or gives up on really bother me, and I have a feeling those plays will become more frequent.

[sharpe1027]

Now they just need to find a consistent pass rusher to play the opposite side.

[Patler]

Random thoughts my ass. A link to the source material and observations laid out in a bulleted list and a closing statement, lol. Although somehow I believe that is about as 'random' as Patler gets!

You know me well!!

[Patler]

Meh, I could take him or leave him. The plays he takes off or gives up on really bother me, and I have a feeling those plays will become more frequent.

Still, his 23 plays of note (sacks, FF, PDef and int.) equaled Matthews in 2014, and exceeded Matthews totals in any other season.

Does he take off plays that matter, or is he conserving himself on plays when he knows he can't make a difference anyway? Do any of us really know the answer to that?

[Fritz]

One more year! One more year!

If Ted drafts for defense like he did in 2011, I hope he does a better job this time!

[Rutnstrut]

Still, his 23 plays of note (sacks, FF, PDef and int.) equaled Matthews in 2014, and exceeded Matthews totals in any other season.

Does he take off plays that matter, or is he conserving himself on plays when he knows he can't make a difference anyway? Do any of us really know the answer to that?

The argument that he's better than Mathews doesn't do much for me, I think Clay is over rated.

[smuggler]

Clay is not a perennial pro-bowler, but he's good at everything and a very good pass-rusher. If we had 11 copies of him, our defense would be stout. Having someone to perform at or near his level is a pretty good thing.

[Patler]

The argument that he's better than Mathews doesn't do much for me, I think Clay is over rated.

I wasn't arguing that he was better than Matthews, just pointing out that he supplied something the Packers don't have a lot of on defense, players who make so-called impact plays on a regular basis. From that respect, he was a significant improvement for the defense, but that is only a small part of a players value to the team.

The real question is, does he really "take plays off" in a manner that is detrimental to the team? I don't know the answer to that question, but it is difficult to believe that he does when he generates more impact plays than anyone else.

[Patler]

Clay is not a perennial pro-bowler, but he's good at everything and a very good pass-rusher. If we had 11 copies of him, our defense would be stout. Having someone to perform at or near his level is a pretty good thing.

But he is a perennial pro-bowler. He has made the pro bowl every year except 2013, when he dealt with the broken thumb.

So then the question is: Should he be??

[smuggler]

Ah, sorry. The answer to that question is yes. I had meant All-Pro. As in... he is not the best OLB in the game, but he's top 5 for sure.

[pbmax]

Matthews doesn't have a single, dominant area. You could say he is phenomenally quick, but that doesn't mean he is the greatest run stopper, pass rusher, coverage backer, etc.

But he does everything extraordinarily well. And with his speed, he can do it all over the field.

[smuggler]

Hell, people called Urlacher a great player, but he was once pancaked by Cory Slesinger 14 times in a single game. A lot of things are give/take.

[Rutnstrut]

When Clay has 3 or 4 seasons in a row without missing a game due to injury, he will be worth his salary. Until then he is overrated/paid, imo.

[Bretsky]

Clearly we should not have paid that for Clay Matthews. We should have let him walk. And Peppers is not as good as Matthews either and is overrated. Let him go as well. Seeing Clay is our best defensive player and Peppers may be our next ....we should let them all go. Guys who can make explosive plays like sacks...and/or force turnovers are way overrated.

[Bretsky]

But he is a perennial pro-bowler. He has made the pro bowl every year except 2013, when he dealt with the broken thumb.

So then the question is: Should he be??

Of course he is; tough to name ten outside LB's better than him as is. If he plays a whole season you'd be hard pressed to find 2 or 3 better. Guys who make big plays carry value. If you have two or three of them they can make a lot of lesser players look better.