Brady 4 Game Suspension Upheld

[pbmax]

Pb, you are a more trusting individual than I am. It seems pretty straight-forward to me.

Oh, believe me, I don't don't trust anyone in that organization. Like a NASCAR team, I assume they are all trying to find an edge that skirts the rules and praying people don't find out.

But this isn't about our baseline suspicions, it should be about what can be proven.

But if the NFL and Goodell did not have their heads up their patoots, this would also be about the why. And the answer is that like Rodgers, the Patriots were after the thin line of 12.5 (or 13.5 for Rodgers). But the Patriots wanted to guard against re-inflation by refs during inspection as well (see story of 16 PSI), due to random fluctuation or differences in gauges.

That's what needs to be fixed. A four game suspension is for PR. If game integrity of footballs was truly this important, the competition committee or other teams would have asked for better rules in the first place.

This PFT piece, actually, covers the relevant considerations that should have been covered prior to the freakout, if the inflation of the ball was a paramount importance. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...rop-naturally/

The fact that Vincent (who hopefully never took a physics course at UW-Madison and therefore has an excuse to not know what the Ideal Gas Law is) was unaware of these considerations, shows how monumentally unprepared the League was for this "crisis".

[pbmax]

conduct detrimental versus equipment tampering

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...-brady-vs-nfl/

[Guiness]

What's this about 16psi? Did I miss a story? Did a team of officials turn them into cannonballs at some point?

[pbmax]

What's this about 16psi? Did I miss a story? Did a team of officials turn them into cannonballs at some point?

At some point, I do not remember which season it referred to, Brady claimed the game balls they used were way over-inflated. He mentioned 16 PSI, but whether that was an exaggeration or actual measurement, I don't know. The refs had, for this game anyway, been the last to inspect or prep the footballs, and they went overboard according to Tom.

[Guiness]

At some point, I do not remember which season it referred to, Brady claimed the game balls they used were way over-inflated. He mentioned 16 PSI, but whether that was an exaggeration or actual measurement, I don't know. The refs had, for this game anyway, been the last to inspect or prep the footballs, and they went overboard according to Tom.

He better claim it was an exaggeration for effect - "what are those things, like 16psi?". lol, like anyone would say that.
If he'd checked them, that be tampering. A system's state is altered when measured, if he measured the psi of the balls he tampered with the pressure the referees worked so diligently to attain!

[sharpe1027]

PB, after reading the text messages and in view of the odd behavior before the game, do you think it is more likely that McNally tampered with the balls, or do you think it was more likely that there was no tampering?

[pbmax]

PB, after reading the text messages and in view of the odd behavior before the game, do you think it is more likely that McNally tampered with the balls, or do you think it was more likely that there was no tampering?

The thing I can't work out is the disappearance of the balls before the refs would normally take them out. The Head Ref (Walt Anderson) said he had never seen them disappear early before. If the Patriots regularly did this, you would have had more reports of that because you can bet they asked around.

So disappearing into that closet looks suspicious. But it also doesn't make sense that it was the first time.

I almost want to say they were tampering to get a 12.5 reading after ref inspection, but this wasn't when they did it. This was just a weird deal. I would bet they were leaking air on the sidelines.

[sharpe1027]

So, do you think on that day, it was more likely that McNally tampered with some balls, or that he did not tamper with any?

[pbmax]

So, do you think on that day, it was more likely that McNally tampered with some balls, or that he did not tamper with any?

More likely they did not tamper, based on available evidence, mostly the pressure of the balls.

All the other evidence points to them being ready to tamper if the refs re-inflate them.

[Guiness]

And the NFL just keeps looking worse
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...en-to-players/

It appears that Brady (actually, all NFL players) are not given the copy of the rules that lay out what they can be punished for. A big no-no under labour law.

So, 'conduct detrimental' be dammed, he never should've been charged and put in that position in the first place.

[sharpe1027]

More likely they did not tamper, based on available evidence, mostly the pressure of the balls.

All the other evidence points to them being ready to tamper if the refs re-inflate them.

Fair enough, I would come down on the other side here.

The scientific evidence makes the drop in pressure unlikely, but within the realm of possibility. It doesn't sway me too much in either direction, but I think that there is enough evidence that it is more likely that some air was let out. The text messages are pretty bad. While I agree with you that they were jokes, they read like jokes about what they were already doing and planning to do in the future. If all McNally was doing was setting the balls to 12.5 lbs, he would not be under pressure, expecting a huge signing day or cash, or joking about going to ESPN. The manner in which the balls were taken and the missing time on the cameras really clinches the deal.

We have clear motive.
We have them (arguably) discussing the act.
We have opportunity.
We have evidence of tampering (arguably).
We have destruction of evidence after-the-fact.
We have a growing history of misconduct with this particular organization.

It's enough to shift the needle of probability for me. While I can understand that others don't think the evidence is there, there is no requirement to convince everyone. It is just a few individuals making the decision. There will always be people that disagree on any outcome. On the extreme end, people still deny the moon landing.

[sharpe1027]

And the NFL just keeps looking worse
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...en-to-players/

It appears that Brady (actually, all NFL players) are not given the copy of the rules that lay out what they can be punished for. A big no-no under labour law.

So, 'conduct detrimental' be dammed, he never should've been charged and put in that position in the first place.

Oops. They need a better HR department.

It's gotta be tough, however, to sit there and say with a straight face that you didn't now messing with equipment was a no-no.

[pbmax]

Well, that is one set of rules the team and owners agree to, that includes the integrity of the game clause. The players do get other rules.

It can get quite esoteric, which is why the judge wants a settlement, because the ruling can come down under equipment, failure to cooperate, or conduct detrimental.

For Sharpe, did any of their discussions indicate tampering after approval? Wasn't most of it Brady being mad if things weren't right? Couldn't a reasonable person infer that they were trying to get inflation levels correct for his approval prior to handover?

[sharpe1027]

For Sharpe, did any of their discussions indicate tampering after approval? Wasn't most of it Brady being mad if things weren't right? Couldn't a reasonable person infer that they were trying to get inflation levels correct for his approval prior to handover?

You could infer that, but that's not what I saw. I think the inference is pretty strong the other way, but again, we can disagree.

If all they were doing is prior to handover, it was as simple as setting them all to 12.5 prior to hand over. Moreover, they expressly told the refs they wanted them at 12.5 and the refs agreed. It was probably as simple as that in each case.

Why would McNally expect anything from Brady for setting the balls at the proscribed 12.5 minimum? How is that any different than setting them at 13, or 13.5?

Why would Brady think McNally was under a lot of pressure for simply setting the balls at 12.5?

Why would they refer to their jobs as "deflation" and providing a "needle" (also joking about a pump not being attached) when all they had to do was inflate to the correct amount in the first instance?

Why would a guy who isn't even in charge of equipment go into the equipment room and take the balls while the referees were absent?

Why would an equipment manager in charge of ball care defer the duties to a part-time guy?

Why would Brady turn over two phones to a forensic examiner, but hold back a third?

Why would Brady destroy the third phone on the same day he is interviewed, knowing they wanted the texts from that phone and he did not turn it over previously?

[pbmax]

Because the refs are under orders to correct balls that are outside the parameters of 12.5 to 13.5. Even before the new rules, they were expected to fix the situation if they found something out of spec. You talk to the refs to ask them, if they need to fix one, please make it 12.5 not 13.2.

So there is pressure to have the balls be low, but not low enough to risk the refs inflating them on their own. There is enough room for fluctuation here that I am sure the 16 PSI ball wasn't the only time Brady was mad. In fact, Brady might be more interested in feel than pressure levels. In this way, haphazard draining air from a ball seems like a bad solution.

However, I do agree, though am not convinced the evidence proves this, that the level of concern seems to indicate a desire to "correct" anything the refs do to the team approved balls. In fact, I find a 90 second trip to the closet more likely indicative of checking than deflating. While testers found it possible to deflate 12 in that time, checking twelve seems more likely. Still have doubts on this one though as they League could not come up with another single instance of the balls moving before ref's walked them out to the field. Just as likely the guy was stealing away for a gulp from his flask.

So as I said earlier, it makes more sense for this to happen on the sideline when the QB is warming up and can comment on them.

As for turning over evidence, he turned over two phones to his examiner after he was punished and failure to cooperate was part of the suspension. Since Wells never asked for physical possession of the phone, the date is less glaring to me. He wasn't going to produce records until that lack of cooperation cost him 4 games, so destruction anytime before the edict was handed down seems to me small potatoes. A better question is why one phone and not the other.

[sharpe1027]

Deflation on the sidelines would be in the presence of a lot of people. It would be possible, but I am not so sure it is the option that makes the most sense. It is the first time I have heard that theory, so I would again suggest that how you might approach the situation may not be how most others would approach it.

The same goes for your theory on measuring vs deflating. Also, there are clear references to a needle and deflation in the text messages.

As to the phones, it seems to me that Brady submitted the old phone in the hopes that the NFL would not realize that there was a missing phone. I think the timeline is such that he only owned up to the missing phone (and excuse) after he was caught because the examiner discovered the time gap.

[pbmax]

Deflation on the sidelines would be in the presence of a lot of people. It would be possible, but I am not so sure it is the option that makes the most sense. It is the first time I have heard that theory, so I would again suggest that how you might approach the situation may not be how most others would approach it.

The same goes for your theory on measuring vs deflating. Also, there are clear references to a needle and deflation in the text messages.

As to the phones, it seems to me that Brady submitted the old phone in the hopes that the NFL would not realize that there was a missing phone. I think the timeline is such that he only owned up to the missing phone (and excuse) after he was caught because the examiner discovered the time gap.

He didn't submit the phone. His lawyers gave the phones to their own forensic examiners. But he wasn't going to do that, to avoid a precedent setting issue, until the ruling came down. That is why I look less critically at the possible date of the destruction.

[sharpe1027]

He didn't submit the phone. His lawyers gave the phones to their own forensic examiners. But he wasn't going to do that, to avoid a precedent setting issue, until the ruling came down. That is why I look less critically at the possible date of the destruction.

He submitted it to forensic examiners. He new damn well that the relevant time period was on the phone he didn't submit. I don't see the relevance of your distinction on who actually looked at the phones.

[pbmax]

He submitted it to forensic examiners. He new damn well that the relevant time period was on the phone he didn't submit. I don't see the relevance of your distinction on who actually looked at the phones.

The question relates to what he feared by turning over evidence.

If he knew Wells wasn't going to demand possession of the phone, then destruction of phone is completely unnecessary. Even to withhold evidence. If he destroys it during this time frame, its possibly benign.

However, after he learns that the absence of phone records is part of what is costing him 4 games (remember Favre withheld his phone records and was fined), he then turned over what was left - which were calling and texting records that would have required reconstruction from the other end.

So the destruction of the phone gains him little, except that, as part of the pissing match, neither side is willing to do the reconstruction.

The only scenario this doesn't possibly hold true for is the missing texts. PFT has detailed there are three texts on Brady's phone records that they are not in possession of from the Patriot phones.

[red]

this is a battle of 2 things i hate

i hate goodell and wish he would die in a fiery car crash because i think he's a douchebag and is trying his best to make the game look like a joke. plus he makes like twice as much as any of the guys, that you know, actually play the game and make it great.

on the other hand, i really hate brady and the patriots. they are IMO a bunch of cheats willing to do whatever it takes to win (even if it is cheating) plus brady seems like a massive frat boy dickhead.

best case for me, would be to have the two sides duel, with each, shooting the other in the stomach and suffering horrible deaths