Brady 4 Game Suspension Upheld

[pbmax]

This is your opinionated generalization. The only basis for this opinion is two studies that provide alternative theories, no that rely upon various assumptions that are not necessarily true.

That is not the case. The NFLPA had convincing testimony that the statistical methods used to deduce the amount of pressure that would be lost under game conditions were flawed.

From Deadspin: http://deadspin.com/here-is-the-tran...ing-1722113452

Update (9:20 p.m.): After a lunch break, the NFLPA questions one of their expert witnesses Edward Snyder, Dean of the Yale School of Management. His role was to evaluate the findings of Exponent, the company used by Ted Wells’s team for scientific and statistical analysis of the deflation of the footballs. Snyder gets straight to the point, and identifies a number of errors he says Exponent made:

Q. Okay. So let’s go, let’s start with your slide deck. The first slide shows your three key findings. And if you could just sort of walk the Commissioner through each of the three key findings that you made and that we will elaborate on.

A. So first finding is that their analysis of the difference in differences, the analysis of the pressure drops and the difference in the average pressure drops is wrong because Exponent did not include timing and the effects of timing in that analysis.

Secondly, Exponent looked at the variation and the measurements between the Patriots’ balls and the Colts’ balls at halftime. They compared the variances. And despite conceding that there was no statistically significant difference between the two, they went ahead and drew conclusions, but those conclusions are improper.

And, last, and this goes to the issue of alternative assumptions, as well as error, if the logo gauge was used to measure the Patriots’ balls before the game, then given what the framework that Exponent provides us with scientifically, and if the analysis is done correctly, eight of the eleven Patriots’ balls are above the relevant scientific threshold.


OK. So 8 out of 11 meet the expected threshold of pressure loss due to conditions as calculated by Exponent. That still leaves 3 balls were tampering must have occurred, right? Not really, their analysis failed to be internally consistent.

Update (9:30 p.m.): Man, Snyder absolutely lays waste to the report Exponent prepared for the Wells Report. For instance, here he is explaining how quickly the PSI of a football changes when being brought into a warm room after spending a few hours out in the cold, and how Exponent didn’t even bother to account for timing in their report:

Q. So let’s go to our Slide 12. And what is this showing?

A. This takes the earlier Figure 22, and I will refer to that again. It takes the top schedule, what Exponent calls their transient analysis, that’s their scientific framework.

It says, okay, you bring in a Colts’ ball. It was pre-game at 13. It’s brought right into the locker room. It’s going to be 11.87. This is, like, so 2:40 is, like, in locker room terms, it’s minute zero. And then 12 minutes later, it’s warmed up and it’s roughly 1.1 psi greater in 12 minutes.

Q. The same ball?

A. The same ball.

Q. What did Exponent do in its difference in difference analysis to account for time?

A. Nothing.

Q. How do you know?

A. Absolutely nothing. If you look at their difference in difference equation in their appendix and you look at Table A3, where they report their results, they have explanatory variables for their difference in difference analysis and time is not an explanatory variable.

You can read the Exponent report forwards, backwards, upside down. You see time referred to again and again and again and again. However, you have to look at what they actually did, the statistical analysis that they actually did. They left time out of the analysis that they said was the most important.

[mraynrand]

That is not the case. The NFLPA had convincing testimony that the statistical methods used to deduce the amount of pressure that would be lost under game conditions were flawed.

so what PB? Who gives a flying fuck if the pressure changes could be explained naturally? The only thing that matters is whether there was an attempt to deliberately change the pressure. Maybe the ball boy got fired because he didn't let out enough fucking air.

BTW, I am not up to muster on all the little intricate details, and all this fucking obfuscation is just making it worse. Question: was the inflation level of the balls checked at any point after the ball boy disappeared with them into the closet/bathroom whatever? Were they measured later during the game and/or after the game? I just don't recall. (i.e. they were measured at halftime only???)

[pbmax]

Exponent, at this point getting very sloppy, used a master gauge adjustment to reconcile the two different readings the two gauges were giving, so that one set of numbers could be used to consider changes during the first half. Except that they used the adjustment for the halftime PSI readings and not for the pregame readings.

Update (9:45 p.m.): One of the issues in the halftime measurement of the footballs’s PSI is that two different pressure gauges were used, and one of them consistently came back with readings .3 to .4 PSI higher than the other. The Exponent report used a “master gauge adjustment” to be able to use readings from both gauges, and found that there was funny business going on with eight of the 11 balls. But Exponent made, according to Snyder, “a very basic mistake.” They used the master gauge adjustment for the halftime PSI readings, but not the pre-game PSI readings. If they had done so, they would’ve had very different findings:

Q. Let’s go to the next slide. And were you able to correct for that inconsistency that you described in Exponent’s master gauge conversion?

A. Yes. Now, the effective starting value is not 12.5, it’s 12.17.

Q. How do you get the 12.17?

A. You apply the master gauge conversion consistently to both halftime measurements, as well as the starting value.

Q. Okay. And let’s go to the next slide. And what is the impact of making that correction on the results?

A. Now eight of the Patriots’ balls are above the critical threshold predicted by Exponent, three are below.

So I have two studies that demonstrate that loss of pressure in this range is quite possible. In the study that purports to show that the loss cannot be due to natural processes, when errors are corrected, 8 of 11 balls meet the threshold.

And this does not account for the timing of measurement between the Patriots balls and the Colts, which might explain the other 3.

The evidence for deflation stinks and its not simply an opinion. If the NFL wants to rule on this matter, it needs better data and procedures.

[sharpe1027]

I didn't realize he was fired.

I read he was fired on the Internet, so it must be true. IDK.

[sharpe1027]

Exponent, at this point getting very sloppy, used a master gauge adjustment to reconcile the two different readings the two gauges were giving, so that one set of numbers could be used to consider changes during the first half. Except that they used the adjustment for the halftime PSI readings and not for the pregame readings.

Update (9:45 p.m.): One of the issues in the halftime measurement of the footballs’s PSI is that two different pressure gauges were used, and one of them consistently came back with readings .3 to .4 PSI higher than the other. The Exponent report used a “master gauge adjustment” to be able to use readings from both gauges, and found that there was funny business going on with eight of the 11 balls. But Exponent made, according to Snyder, “a very basic mistake.” They used the master gauge adjustment for the halftime PSI readings, but not the pre-game PSI readings. If they had done so, they would’ve had very different findings:

Q. Let’s go to the next slide. And were you able to correct for that inconsistency that you described in Exponent’s master gauge conversion?

A. Yes. Now, the effective starting value is not 12.5, it’s 12.17.

Q. How do you get the 12.17?

A. You apply the master gauge conversion consistently to both halftime measurements, as well as the starting value.

Q. Okay. And let’s go to the next slide. And what is the impact of making that correction on the results?

A. Now eight of the Patriots’ balls are above the critical threshold predicted by Exponent, three are below.

So I have two studies that demonstrate that loss of pressure in this range is quite possible. In the study that purports to show that the loss cannot be due to natural processes, when errors are corrected, 8 of 11 balls meet the threshold.

And this does not account for the timing of measurement between the Patriots balls and the Colts, which might explain the other 3.

The evidence for deflation stinks and its not simply an opinion. If the NFL wants to rule on this matter, it needs better data and procedures.

You keep coming back to the PSI data, but it doesn't really matter that much. They can't go back and re-measure the balls to clarify, but they can look at the totality of the evidence and make an informed conclusion.

[pbmax]

WTF kind of bullshit question is this? This is perhaps the worst analogy I've ever seen you make. The 'body' here is a slightly deflated football. (like a subtle attempted murder, perhaps with maybe one very low dose of rat poison).

What kind of evidence do you want? There's plenty of circumstantial evidence for an effort to adjust the inflation of the footballs. It's not well supported (I guess there is a missing phone or something?) but it exists.

Ya know, there was nothing on those 18 minutes of White house tapes and nothing on that server either. "Absence of proof is proof of absence!"

If you are going to punish someone for illegally tampering with football equipment, then evidence of that tampering would be useful.

The evidence, based on pre-game and halftime measurements, does nothing to bolster the case that the balls were tampered with. Without even accouningt for the time delay in measuring the Colts four balls at halftime, 8 of 11 of the Patriots balls were within suspected tolerances. And halftime is a natural experiment, because no one is accusing the Colts of tampering. Weather and use had the same effect on each team.

The League's own expert says the single most important factor here is time. And we do not have any records when the balls were measured, meaning the three remaining outside tolerance could be explained simply by the order in which each was examined.

They have the body. The medical examiner cannot determine cause of death.

[mraynrand]

PB have you ever answered this question (with a yes or no):

"Given all the evidence, do you think the Patriots team and/or players deliberately deflated the footballs?"

[pbmax]

so what PB? Who gives a flying fuck if the pressure changes could be explained naturally? The only thing that matters is whether there was an attempt to deliberately change the pressure. Maybe the ball boy got fired because he didn't let out enough fucking air.

BTW, I am not up to muster on all the little intricate details, and all this fucking obfuscation is just making it worse. Question: was the inflation level of the balls checked at any point after the ball boy disappeared with them into the closet/bathroom whatever? Were they measured later during the game and/or after the game? I just don't recall. (i.e. they were measured at halftime only???)

Balls were measure pre game and halftime. Not sure if they are numbered, so not sure of you can compare each measurement and be sure you are talking about the same ball.

11 Patriot balls were examined at the half. I presume the 12th was the Colts intercepted ball and no one wanted to count that among the evidence, though that doesn't explain why it couldn't be re-inflated. 4 Colts footballs were examined at halftime.

Natural occurrence matters because there is no other evidence of tampering. The Patriot employee in the bathroom/closet (was this ever resolved?) could have done something, but its far from clear he did. He did violate the rules by which the balls are to be delivered to the field. And he was fired.

[mraynrand]

If you are going to punish someone for illegally tampering with football equipment, then evidence of that tampering would be useful.

The evidence, based on pre-game and halftime measurements, does nothing to bolster the case that the balls were tampered with. Without even accouningt for the time delay in measuring the Colts four balls at halftime, 8 of 11 of the Patriots balls were within suspected tolerances. And halftime is a natural experiment, because no one is accusing the Colts of tampering. Weather and use had the same effect on each team.

The League's own expert says the single most important factor here is time. And we do not have any records when the balls were measured, meaning the three remaining outside tolerance could be explained simply by the order in which each was examined.

They have the body. The medical examiner cannot determine cause of death.

No, no no. The "ME" knows the balls are deflated; he can't say how. For example, the old man died from injuries sustained tumbling down the stairs. The ME CANNOT determined whether his wife pushed him or he misstepped. So they have to look on the old bag's cell phone to see whether she texed someone that she can't stand the old bastard one more day. Ooops, the cell phone/server/tapes are missing!

[pbmax]

PB have you ever answered this question (with a yes or no):

"Given all the evidence, do you think the Patriots team and/or players deliberately deflated the footballs?"

Yes I have. I do not think they did in the Colts game.

[mraynrand]

Natural occurrence matters because there is no other evidence of tampering. The Patriot employee in the bathroom/closet (was this ever resolved?) could have done something, but its far from clear he did. He did violate the rules by which the balls are to be delivered to the field. And he was fired.

did you really just write this? amazing.

[sharpe1027]

If you are going to punish someone for illegally tampering with football equipment, then evidence of that tampering would be useful.

The evidence, based on pre-game and halftime measurements, does nothing to bolster the case that the balls were tampered with. Without even accouningt for the time delay in measuring the Colts four balls at halftime, 8 of 11 of the Patriots balls were within suspected tolerances. And halftime is a natural experiment, because no one is accusing the Colts of tampering. Weather and use had the same effect on each team.

The League's own expert says the single most important factor here is time. And we do not have any records when the balls were measured, meaning the three remaining outside tolerance could be explained simply by the order in which each was examined.

They have the body. The medical examiner cannot determine cause of death.

PB, they have evidence of tampering. We've been through 100 times this but you keep going back to the well. Just assume the evidence on PSI is inconclusive so we can move on, and not have to rehash again.

The guy basically stole the balls from the refs and took them directly into the bathroom (and he is not even in charge of the balls). When they investigated his text messages, and they were ridiculously damning. Brady destroyed a phone that might have further damning text messages. I say hang 'em high.

[Fritz]

This whole thread is very deflating.

But do I blame the Patriots? I'm not sure.

[pbmax]

No, no no. The "ME" knows the balls are deflated; he can't say how. For example, the old man died from injuries sustained tumbling down the stairs. The ME CANNOT determined whether his wife pushed him or he misstepped. So they have to look on the old bag's cell phone to see whether she texed someone that she can't stand the old bastard one more day. Ooops, the cell phone/server/tapes are missing!

No, that doesn't work either because we (in ME case) know the method of the injury. Better to say kidney failure? Maybe blunt force trauma that could have multiple causes?

And the texts are not all missing. They have the employees texts to Brady and the complete phone/text records from AT&T. If Roger wanted Brady's copies of those other messages, he could retrieve them from the 28 NFL related people he conversed with. The evidence did not disappear like Nixon on tape. No one has bothered to retrieve the backup copy in Haldeman's safe.

[sharpe1027]

No, that doesn't work either because we know the method of the injury. Better to say kidney failure? Maybe blunt force trauma that could have multiple causes?

And the texts are not all missing. They have the employees texts to Brady and the complete phone/text records from AT&T. If Roger wanted Brady's copies of those other messages, he could retrieve them from the 28 NFL related people he conversed with. The evidence did not disappear like Nixon on tape. No one has bothered to retrieve the backup copy in Haldeman's safe.

They don't need the texts to make a case. Is it a winner? IDK, but it is a hell of a lot more convincing that you are stating.

[mraynrand]

No, that doesn't work either because we know the method of the injury.

I don't follow you here at all. The balls were deflated. That's the result. That could have happened 'naturally/acidental' (cooling environment, old man loses equilibrium) or 'unnaturally/deliberately' (needle, old lady pushes)

And the texts are not all missing. They have the employees texts to Brady and the complete phone/text records from AT&T. If Roger wanted Brady's copies of those other messages, he could retrieve them from the 28 NFL related people he conversed with. The evidence did not disappear like Nixon on tape. No one has bothered to retrieve the backup copy in Haldeman's safe.

yes, not all the tapes were missing; not all the server contents are missing. Not all the cell phone chatter is missing. What remains isn't helpful to the argument that deflation wasn't deliberate. But your observation begs the question: what about the missing chatter?

Given my awful experiences with AT&T, would not be surprising if they couldn't retrieve a cold beer from a fridge, let alone 'missing' texts.

[pbmax]

They don't need the texts to make a case. Is it a winner? IDK, but it is a hell of a lot more convincing that you are stating.

Could be. But the lack of texts from Brady is now being cited as one of the two charges against him (the other being clear and convincing/more probable than not knowledge of a scheme).

Knowledge of the scheme, by the way, is a new rule. See Jay Feely.

[pbmax]

I don't follow you here at all. The balls were deflated. That's the result. That could have happened 'naturally/acidental' (cooling environment, old man loses equilibrium) or 'unnaturally/deliberately' (needle, old lady pushes)

You know the fall and the stairs (+ gravity) caused the injury. The method of football pressure loss is still being debated. In the former, the location and method of injury is known. In the latter both are unknown.

[sharpe1027]

Could be. But the lack of texts from Brady is now being cited as one of the two charges against him (the other being clear and convincing/more probable than not knowledge of a scheme).

Knowledge of the scheme, by the way, is a new rule. See Jay Feely.

What's wrong with that charge exactly? Is it the NFL's duty to seek out the data that Brady made difficult, if not impossible, to retrieve? Does it matter to the issue of what Brady did that there might be an alternative way of getting the data?

[mraynrand]

You know the fall and the stairs (+ gravity) caused the injury. The method of football pressure loss is still being debated. In the former, the location and method of injury is known. In the latter the method of pressure loss is unknown.

really PB?

loss of pressure = fall/injury. There are various possible explanations for the loss of pressure as for the fall. The point being that the result on it's own is insufficient to determine cause.

The point in this case is that the loss of pressure isn't definitive, so it can't rule in or out claims either way. Have to look elsewhere.