...we're reasonably lucky with injuries and the defense improves.

Might sound crazy to look at the defense but I'm not convinced 2015 was all that representative of their ability. The defense seemed to improve last year but I think this is obfuscated by a greater league-wide trend in 2015 where rules or coaching innovations or the football gods just seemed to give NFL defenses the upper hand in general. Kind of the opposite of 2011 where a handful of guys all put up MVP-worthy numbers on offense. The 2015 Packers offense was good for the Packers but relative to the rest of the league it was nothing special. I do think there's reason to expect improvement.

On offense the 2015 level of futility and injury seems too unlikely to warrant much concern.