Kacsmar is trying to say that the Packers don't do well in shootouts (Packer D allowing more than 26 points) when underdogs.

More generally, Packers are 16-38-1 when allowing 26+ points. Falcons are 17-40.

http://pfref.com/tiny/n2Up4

Kacsmar wants you to believe the Packers won't fare well as underdogs. I think that may the wrong question. As these numbers guys say, sometimes splits happen.

I don't think 5 fewer wins as underdogs in this scenario means much given the overwhelming chance of losing such a game (need to score 4 TDs just to be competitive). Since BOTH teams are in this boat, I don't think underdog comes into it much UNLESS its proven the Falcons are clearly a superior team.

I think the earlier game this year disabuses that notion. I think the Packer D will be more effective than people think.