I think there are kind of two parts to unpack about those running plays. 1) Making the high percentage fieldgoal and favorable clock rundown plan A at the expense of a high percentage first down. 2) the specific play call given the stated goal of a plan A fieldgoal+clock rundown.

I wonder which McCarthy regrets more. 1 seems more defensible/falsifiable because as the game gets shorter and shorter the probabilities more useful. I think its clear that giving the ball to Rodgers is your best shot at a first down but that comes with downsides. I don't know (after accounting for the extent and likelyhood of the possible bad outcomes) whether a pair of incomplete passes that stop the clock or a pair of bad runs that eat clock but leave an even lower percentage field goal is the right move.