Future Value Sticker Shock

[pbmax]

You might be surprised by the first set of numbers, but you will be more surprised by the second set.

Spotrac.com listed their approximation of what each 4th or 5th year vet is going to get for their next contract. Packers have two players on the list, HaHa Clinton Dix and Corey Linsley.

HAHA CLINTON-DIX, FS, GREEN BAY PACKERS
Calculated: 5 years, $55M ($11M AAV; $34M guaranteed)
Likely: 5 year $52.5M ($10.5M AAV; $31M guaranteed)

The 2014 #21 overall selection has posted back to back strong seasons in Green Bay, and has yet to miss a game in his career. Combine that with coverage stats/ratings that are comparable with the top-paid free safeties in the game, and result is a calculated market value of a whopping $11M (3rd to Berry, Mathieu). Dix is set to earn $2.6M in 2017, and $5.6M for his 2018 5th-year option, so the Packers certainly don’t need to rush this extension, but it appears Harrison Smith’s 5 year 51.25M deal in Minnesota will be a target when it happens.

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[pbmax]

COREY LINSLEY, C, GREEN BAY PACKERS
Calculated: 5 years, $34M ($6.9M AAV; $15.5M guaranteed)
Likely: 5 year $37.5M ($7.5M AAV; $17M guaranteed)

The 5th round selection back in 2014 has cemented his role in the middle of the Packers’ offensive line. He’s posted excellent advanced ratings each year, including a Top 15 performance in 2016. He enters his contract year set to earn $1.8M, while carrying a calculated market value of nearly $7M. With 6 centers currently earning more than $8M, it’s likely Linsley’s new deal is in the $8-$9M range.

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[Rutnstrut]

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Ted will let Linsley walk. Although the past has proved otherwise, Ted thinks good centers are a dime a dozen.

[texaspackerbacker]

This shows up on the same day that Compensatory Picks thread is started? Hell yeah, let Linsley go; Maybe even Haha - then pocket a 3rd and 5th round pick or something similar.

[pbmax]

Ted will let Linsley walk. Although the past has proved otherwise, Ted thinks good centers are a dime a dozen.

Prior to acquiring Tretter and Linsley, I would have agreed with you. But Campen has said he made the case for a while that converting people to center was an uphill climb. Both Linsley and Tretter paid good dividends early in their career at Center.

I suspect the position has climbed a little in Ted's mind, however, its also possible it hasn't climbed enough to pay Linsley that much money. I would then not be stunned to see a true center drafted in the middle rounds.

[gbgary]

player salaries are going up in all sports. (does anyone think they're going to go down? lol) there's no reason NOT to pay key guys/positions. it's not like there's not enough money now or in the future with the way the cap keeps going up. letting good players go for a toss of the draft dice will keep us out of the superbowl. look what NE is doing. they're making their team better with veteran signings and trading away draft picks.

[Rutnstrut]

player salaries are going up in all sports. (does anyone think they're going to go down? lol) there's no reason NOT to pay key guys/positions. it's not like there's not enough money now or in the future with the way the cap keeps going up. letting good players go for a toss of the draft dice will keep us out of the superbowl. look what NE is doing. they're making their team better with veteran signings and trading away draft picks.

There is no way NE is making their team better that way. Everyone knows the ONLY way to do that is through draft and develop and comp picks.

[Patler]

Ted will let Linsley walk. Although the past has proved otherwise, Ted thinks good centers are a dime a dozen.

Obviously. The fact that he signed Wells to a 5 year extension in the middle of one season, paying him top 10 money for centers at the time, showed a blatant disdain for the position. So did taking one of his infrequent forays into TRUE free agency (not that fake free agency, like signing Peppers, Guion, House, Kendrick, etc.) and signing a three time All-Pro, six time Pro Bowler to the second highest OL salary on the team for the season.

Clearly, he sees no value in centers.

BTW - in my opinion his decisions to let Wells and EDS (now just "ES") walk were correct ones. Wells was washed up just two seasons later (although he played a third, but reportedly from St Louis very poorly) and was released and out of the league. ES is now a backup guard with 7 starts in the last two seasons. Neither was worth an expensive, long term deal.

[Fritz]

Prior to acquiring Tretter and Linsley, I would have agreed with you. But Campen has said he made the case for a while that converting people to center was an uphill climb. Both Linsley and Tretter paid good dividends early in their career at Center.

I suspect the position has climbed a little in Ted's mind, however, its also possible it hasn't climbed enough to pay Linsley that much money. I would then not be stunned to see a true center drafted in the middle rounds.

There it is. He'll re-sign Clinton-Dix, but Linsley's injury history will mean he'll end up signing in Chicago or Minnesota for a mega-deal, while Thompson will draft a fourth round center and plug him in.

[Patler]

Prior to acquiring Tretter and Linsley, I would have agreed with you. But Campen has said he made the case for a while that converting people to center was an uphill climb. Both Linsley and Tretter paid good dividends early in their career at Center.

I suspect the position has climbed a little in Ted's mind, however, its also possible it hasn't climbed enough to pay Linsley that much money. I would then not be stunned to see a true center drafted in the middle rounds.

I intended to ask about this before. I don't understand your point about Tretter and Linsley. If anything, it proves that either way works, in spite of what Campen may have argued. Linsley was an experienced center, but Tretter was a two- year tight end who was converted to a tackle for two years, with no experience at center in college.

I don't think there is any reason to think TT under-values the position. While MM wasn't enamored with Wells and tried to replace him with the larger Spitz, that was the coaches' opinions. It doesn't really indicate much, if anything about TT. When Wells proved himself, TT resigned him midseason to a long, well-paying contract. Historically, TT has signed a few, but not a lot of players to early extensions. It speaks highly of his opinion of Wells.

What TT does devalue are players who haven't been reliable physically, regardless of position. He will resign them, but on terms that protect the salary cap. If the players can do better somewhere else, he lets them walk. There have been many examples, and mostly the Packers have been correct in letting them go. Wells fell into that category the second time. Tretter did this year. With Tretter it was an easy decision for them, because they have Linsley.

As for EDS, I don't think they regarded him as having the starting ability they wanted, and they seem to have been correct in that as well. He started one season for TB, and has been a reserve guard since then. When he was allowed to leave, there were comments about their decisions generally in FA that year being to force themselves to get better, and not being satisfied with the status quo. Tretter was expected to be the guy, with Linsley as their fallback. It worked with the combination for three years.

[pbmax]

I intended to ask about this before. I don't understand your point about Tretter and Linsley. If anything, it proves that either way works, in spite of what Campen may have argued. Linsley was an experienced center, but Tretter was a two- year tight end who was converted to a tackle for two years, with no experience at center in college.

Thompson drafted Linsley and all concurrent reporting and scouting had him pegged for Center. Tretter was slightly different but immediately after the draft, the Packers plan was not to cross train him, but stick him at Center.

That was not the usual plan of attack. He had kept and paid Wells, signed FA Saturday and shuffled cross trained guys over to center before (both UDFAs-Barclay- and more permanent drafted fixtures-Sitton and Lang).

But he had not drafted people destined for Center before. And Campen reported the benefits were obvious.

Is this actually evidence of Thompson changing him mind? Probably not. But it was evidence that drafting a player and fitting him into Center was a viable and worthy strategy. I actually think Ted would prefer to draft Tretter again rather than a one position player like Linsley, but both worked out.

[Patler]

Thompson drafted Linsley and all concurrent reporting and scouting had him pegged for Center. Tretter was slightly different but immediately after the draft, the Packers plan was not to cross train him, but stick him at Center.

That was not the usual plan of attack. He had kept and paid Wells, signed FA Saturday and shuffled cross trained guys over to center before (both UDFAs-Barclay- and more permanent drafted fixtures-Sitton and Lang).

But he had not drafted people destined for Center before. And Campen reported the benefits were obvious.

Is this actually evidence of Thompson changing him mind? Probably not. But it was evidence that drafting a player and fitting him into Center was a viable and worthy strategy. I actually think Ted would prefer to draft Tretter again rather than a one position player like Linsley, but both worked out.

As far as that goes, when they drafted Spitz they said he would end up at center, but they needed him at guard at first. I think he was there some already his second season, like Tretter. I suspect Tretter would have been "cross trained" his rookie year too, but he was injured in his first OTA and missed the season, except for a couple practices late. Letting EDS walk rushed his development for year 2 at center, but he was soon their super-sub and did some practicing elsewhere too.

Linsley may be a lost cause anywhere but center.

There is talk now that Amichia could end up at center, too. It will be interesting to see where all he practices.