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Thread: Defense Spending

  1. #21
    I will say this in the OP's defense. There are more than a handful of posts on this forum at the last contract signing that were bemoaning Rodgers not taking a below market deal like Brady and that it would spell disaster for the rest of the team's payroll.
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  2. #22
    Captain Rat HOFer Smidgeon's Avatar
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    I saw a puff piece on ESPN a month or two back where it ranked the best coordinators of the last decade (two decades?), and Wade Phillips was #1 and Capers was #2.

    It got me thinking: the great D-coordinators (for the most part) appear to either be flashes in the pan or fast tracking to HC. For example, Vic Fangio can't do diddly without his players the 49ers drafted in the Top 10 year after year.

    Finding a DC who is that good means temporary solution (as they'll get the HC gig). But even so, those tend to rise within an organization. So bringing in someone from the outside will far more likely be a flash in the pan that cannot duplicate success. So my next question is: does anyone on the Packers coaching chart have it in them to be the next hot DC?
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  3. #23
    Wade Phillips is hands down the best DC in the NFL in my opinion. Everywhere he goes, the D seems to be pretty great.

    I'm just ready for a change. Even if it's just for the sake of change. At least we'd definitively be able to say it's the players or the coach, then. The D is going to be bad this year due to a Bad O, but I am still just ready. Capers has had plenty of time and hasn't done enough.

  4. #24
    Fact Rat HOFer Patler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mraynrand View Post
    I think people generally underestimate the effect of the loss of Shields.
    It's not just Shields.

    Losing a guy like Collins so early in his career, when he was Pro-Bowl caliber and still ascending, hurt the defense for not only the years he would have played, but also for the missed opportunities with players at other positions as they tried to find his replacement. Would they have still drafted HHCD with Collins and Burnett on their roster? Who might they have drafted instead? Collins could be playing still today. He just turned 34.

    Whether due to injuries or something else, Matthews career as a dominant player lasted just 4, maybe 6 years. Players of the type he was his first 4 years typically dominate for 8-10 years or so and are better than average for a while after that. They often have very long careers, especially when they have the rare combination of size, speed and strength that Matthews has. Only in his 9th year now, it has been a long time since he has worried OCs around the league.

    Collins was the best player on defense when he was lost. Matthews was for a short time, then faded away very young. Shields was or could have been the best on defense, then he, too was lost. As a result there has been no one to build around. No one to rely on year after year. The defense has never established a foundation. Their best players never last for an expected career length. That is why the defense is constantly changing. It has had to.

  5. #25
    Senior Rat HOFer beveaux1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patler View Post
    It's not just Shields.

    Losing a guy like Collins so early in his career, when he was Pro-Bowl caliber and still ascending, hurt the defense for not only the years he would have played, but also for the missed opportunities with players at other positions as they tried to find his replacement. Would they have still drafted HHCD with Collins and Burnett on their roster? Who might they have drafted instead? Collins could be playing still today. He just turned 34.

    Whether due to injuries or something else, Matthews career as a dominant player lasted just 4, maybe 6 years. Players of the type he was his first 4 years typically dominate for 8-10 years or so and are better than average for a while after that. They often have very long careers, especially when they have the rare combination of size, speed and strength that Matthews has. Only in his 9th year now, it has been a long time since he has worried OCs around the league.

    Collins was the best player on defense when he was lost. Matthews was for a short time, then faded away very young. Shields was or could have been the best on defense, then he, too was lost. As a result there has been no one to build around. No one to rely on year after year. The defense has never established a foundation. Their best players never last for an expected career length. That is why the defense is constantly changing. It has had to.
    This is really an excellent post.

  6. #26
    Roadkill Rat HOFer mraynrand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patler View Post
    It's not just Shields.

    Losing a guy like Collins so early in his career, when he was Pro-Bowl caliber and still ascending, hurt the defense for not only the years he would have played, but also for the missed opportunities with players at other positions as they tried to find his replacement. Would they have still drafted HHCD with Collins and Burnett on their roster? Who might they have drafted instead? Collins could be playing still today. He just turned 34.

    Whether due to injuries or something else, Matthews career as a dominant player lasted just 4, maybe 6 years. Players of the type he was his first 4 years typically dominate for 8-10 years or so and are better than average for a while after that. They often have very long careers, especially when they have the rare combination of size, speed and strength that Matthews has. Only in his 9th year now, it has been a long time since he has worried OCs around the league.

    Collins was the best player on defense when he was lost. Matthews was for a short time, then faded away very young. Shields was or could have been the best on defense, then he, too was lost. As a result there has been no one to build around. No one to rely on year after year. The defense has never established a foundation. Their best players never last for an expected career length. That is why the defense is constantly changing. It has had to.

    Right. But Having to replace Shields cost them the ability to perhaps replace Matthews. People are holding out hope for Biegel, but really, it's hard to hit on a pass rushing specialist so late in the draft. TT has had to take chances on young and/or inexperienced guys to hopefully step up. Clark - probably yes. Randall, Rollins, Lowry, Fackrell - probably no. Where does that leave them. They have marginal defensive backs and are hoping for King to progress and House to play like his best at Jacksonville. That's just wishful thinking. And the D-line is a total mess. Counting on Dial and Lowry for pass rushing ability - that's just dreck. Just look at Carolina in comparison - those guys generate pressure on every play. Perry is a decent OLB, who really is a run-stopping DE - so he can manage some push, but he's no PR specialist. Matthews is finished, unless they can turn him into an effective "W" player, but lately you see him just absolutely gassed for no real reason. And to boot, he's protecting himself from getting hurt - you can see plays where he pulls up all the time now.

    So, maybe Capers is at fault, but the personnel isn't helping. And it seems overpriced.
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  7. #27
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    To get value in the NFL it certainly helps when your veterans earn their paychecks, but the real path to value is in squeezing production from guys on far-below-market rookie contracts. This is where the Packers have suffered most IMO. We hemorrhage high draft picks into a defense where they tend to bust outright or get hurt in ways that hinder development for much of that precious rookie contract. The quintessential case study is Nick Perry. A first round pick who clearly had talent but did nothing production wise until the Packers had to pay fair market value.
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  8. #28
    Fact Rat HOFer Patler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mraynrand View Post
    Right. But Having to replace Shields cost them the ability to perhaps replace Matthews. People are holding out hope for Biegel, but really, it's hard to hit on a pass rushing specialist so late in the draft. TT has had to take chances on young and/or inexperienced guys to hopefully step up. Clark - probably yes. Randall, Rollins, Lowry, Fackrell - probably no. Where does that leave them. They have marginal defensive backs and are hoping for King to progress and House to play like his best at Jacksonville. That's just wishful thinking. And the D-line is a total mess. Counting on Dial and Lowry for pass rushing ability - that's just dreck. Just look at Carolina in comparison - those guys generate pressure on every play. Perry is a decent OLB, who really is a run-stopping DE - so he can manage some push, but he's no PR specialist. Matthews is finished, unless they can turn him into an effective "W" player, but lately you see him just absolutely gassed for no real reason. And to boot, he's protecting himself from getting hurt - you can see plays where he pulls up all the time now.

    So, maybe Capers is at fault, but the personnel isn't helping. And it seems overpriced.
    You have said the same thing I did, but focused only on the effect of the loss of Shields. The same thing happened with Collins and the decline of Matthews. Whenever a team loses a valuable starter earlier than planned, there develops an additional unplanned need. If Matthews had maintained his level of play the longshots at Fakrell, Biegel, etc. may not have been needed. One or the other might have been the next Daniels, Sitton, Lang, Bakhtiari, Trotter or Linsley, instead. For the Packer D, the same story has repeated itself every couple years.

    For improved qb pressure, I think the guys to watch the rest of 2017 are Montravious Adams and Josh Jones.

  9. #29
    Roadkill Rat HOFer mraynrand's Avatar
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    I was just embellishing.

  10. #30
    Senior Rat HOFer Sparkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mraynrand View Post
    have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.
    Jim Leonhard from Wisconsin is a rising talent in the coaching ranks.
    Last edited by Sparkey; 11-06-2017 at 02:28 PM.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Sparkey View Post
    Jim Leonhard from Wisconsin is a rising talent in the coaching ranks.
    Its his second year in the coaching ranks!
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  12. #32
    Senior Rat HOFer Sparkey's Avatar
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    Leonhard played for the Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, and Cleveland Browns.

    2016 DB Coach Wisconsin
    2017 DC & DB Coach Wisconsin

    Some would say moving from position coach to DC in a year was too big a jump. But he has handled it exceedingly well. Everything I have read and heard about him is that he is very intelligent and well spoken, understands schemes and seems have to have the ability to put players in a position to impact games. Heck, Wisconsin does not have any major blue chip talent, have had some significant injuries at LB and DB and yet continue to put players in positions where they can be successful.

    It would seem that he has taken things he has learned along the way and has been able to implement them with minimal communication errors.

    With Capers and his 20+ years of experience, I continuously see the same communication miscues game after game ?

    I guess the question is how much of the communications issues is the players and how much is the coaching ?

  13. #33
    Senior Rat HOFer Carolina_Packer's Avatar
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    I'm not defending Capers, but hypothetically, if you brought in your choice of DC's last off-season, and they had this cast of defensive players to work with, do you think they would need better players or could someone else make hay with what we've got on the roster? As a special added bonus, none of the defensive players get injured during TC or the season to date in this hypothetical.
    "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." -Daniel Patrick Moynihan

  14. #34
    I like Jimmy Leonhard as much as the next guy but c'mon, he's not going to be an NFL DC next year

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Carolina_Packer View Post
    I'm not defending Capers, but hypothetically, if you brought in your choice of DC's last off-season, and they had this cast of defensive players to work with, do you think they would need better players or could someone else make hay with what we've got on the roster? As a special added bonus, none of the defensive players get injured during TC or the season to date in this hypothetical.
    I expect the overall numbers would be better because of a lack of film.

    I don't know what happens after that. There is coaching talent on the D side of the ball, but its not exactly in high demand. But Perry and Trgovac have been held in high regard in the past. And I think Whitt can coach a CB, though I don't know who is responsible for the communication problems.

    I think that is Dom->Perry->Younger safeties
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  16. #36
    Indenial Rat HOFer bobblehead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by call_me_ishmael View Post
    Wade Phillips is hands down the best DC in the NFL in my opinion. Everywhere he goes, the D seems to be pretty great.

    I'm just ready for a change. Even if it's just for the sake of change. At least we'd definitively be able to say it's the players or the coach, then. The D is going to be bad this year due to a Bad O, but I am still just ready. Capers has had plenty of time and hasn't done enough.
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