I'd guess somewhere around 30% for Crosby. I'd be willing to bet that if they it were possible to know the exact chances and someone told M3 that there was a 1 in 3 chance, he'd still take it. He took a risk on one of his better players making a play and it didn't work out.
At any rate, I doubt punting was ever considered. If they had Rodgers, they would have gone for the 1st down. Hundley was like 6/7 on third down in that game, so maybe they should have gone after it.
We never got a replay of the snap and hold, did we? I thought that was an egregious oversight for such an important play.
No longer the member of any fan clubs. I'm tired of jinxing players out of the league and into obscurity.