Not starring the Packers and M3, but the Colts and Chuck Pagano. This nugget should get you going:
Sharp Football has provided some stats that push back hard on my favorite theories for McCarthy's late game struggles. But those same play call level details show how the Colts managed to screw up a bunch of late leads.The 2017 Colts are the ONLY team in the last 20 years to hold a lead entering the 4th quarter in at least 9 games, but win no more than 4 games.
My first read is this:
1. Substituting likelier to fail play calls for one's that are more successful is a bad idea if the only return is to service a second order effect (running versus a loaded box to drain the clock). You are in essence, handing the other team what they need (multiple possessions) when they need it. It may make sense very late, but not before. And doing it will less than a 2 score lead is probably dumb before 2 minutes.
2. You want to drain clock? Stay inbounds and muddle huddle on every down you can waiting to snap until late in game clock. You can do that at any time.
3. Slowing things down and managing a lead versus a good opponent is just a bad idea in general. At some point, they will figure you out and adjust and score.
http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com...the-2017-colts