I think Jones made a bad decision here. He's likely played his last playoff game.
I think Jones made a bad decision here. He's likely played his last playoff game.
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
I'm not going to stop the wheel. I'm going to break the wheel.
Long term I agree. I think Jacobs is tough and can be on the field all three downs. He's 220 pounds and will be a problem to tackle in December at Lambeau.
Aaron Jones is going to be beloved by his Vikings teammates quickly. He's genuinely a good dude and I wish him the best of luck (minus 2 games). If they run him like they tried to run Cook or Mattison on that field he's going to have a knee injury by Game 6 though.
For MIN, I don't know what they are doing. Are they rebuilding? I assume they are going to chase a QB in Round 1 (McCarthy? Nix? Penix?) in the second tier below Caleb/Maye/Daniels. Do the GM or HC have some kind of grace period? That team is not going to be expected to threaten for the NFCN crown; maybe they think they can squeak to a 7 seed but I think that's very optimistic. Aside from Cousins, there wasn't much on the market for QBs, especially after Baker and Russell signed. Are they tanking? I can't figure it out yet, after the draft it will make more sense what they are doing.
Also - if they trade for Justin Fields they are insane.
A HC usually gets one chance to hitch his wagon to a QB, a GM might get two chances. I'll be very curious to see what MIN (and CHI) do.
Back to Aaron Jones -- I would've thought he'd go to HOU or DAL instead. Maybe even JAX. He definitely wanted to stay close and stick it to Gute. I don't blame him, in a way. He already did one big pay cut, why take another when he did everything he could to prove his value?
Not gonna hate on him, he's a Packer HOF'er. All the same, I suspect he will regret his decision. He'd have been an awesome RB2 to pair with Jacobs.
Jones missed a lot of time this year, which could be a foreshadowing of the future for an aging back, but in the previous four years he missed only four games in total. That's very good for the position.
With the way he performed at the end of the season, it is hard to see him go.
Last edited by Patler; 03-12-2024 at 01:50 PM.
Jacobs did not perform particularly well in 2023. Is he one of those RBs who plays very well, but for a very short time? Remains to be seen. He didn't have a lot of carries in college, unlike some who flame out early in the NFL.
Ever since John Brockington, I don't count on backs for more than a few years.
There was a lot going on last year. He was coming off a 2022 season where he had almost 400 touches. That might have taken something out of him. The Raiders put the franchise tag on him and he didn't report until late August when they agreed to a contract. The Raiders offense was horrible last year, especially once Garoppolo went out with an injury.
I believe the Packers will be better about not overusing him. Don't think you'll see him with any more 400 touch seasons.
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
All true, but..... It just seems that often when backs go through a year like that, after a number of highly productive years, they just lose something, and never again approach what they once were.
GB is going from a 5yds/carry rb to a 4yds/carry rb. Jones never averaged less then 4.6/carry over a season. Jacobs has twice been under 4.0/carry (3.9 in 2020, 3.5 last year).
What I hope is that Jacobs becomes the workhorse, consistent running back that Dillon always teased at being but never really was, and that GB finds a quick, fast and elusive runner and receiver to replace what Jones was, even if for fewer touches per game than Jones was.
GB is only half done rebuilding their backfield.
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget your perfect offering
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
A lot of people are saying that they don't see much difference between Jones and Jacobs, but this is a significant one right there. I think a lot of fans still don't quite seem to get how special Jones was and sorta still is.
Aaron Jones has an extraordinary YPC average - eye-poppingly impressive. His YPC is 5.0. In the entire history of the NFL, of all running backs with 850+ carries, only 3 averaged more than Jones, and 2 of those 3 are named either Jim Brown or Mercury Morris.
He's one of only 3 players who have gained 5.25 YPC in 4 separate seasons, and the other 2 are 50's legends Brown and Joe Perry. For the sake of reference, Ahman Green and Jim Taylor each managed that only once for Green Bay. Marshall Faulk and Barry Sanders each did it 3 times, OJ Simpson did it twice, and Ladainian Tomlinson did it once.
That's the company that Aaron Jones is in. For several years now, I've just been baffled by how many Packer fans (and the league as a whole) do not seem to grasp what a very, very rare player Aaron Jones is. It's going to be a damned long time before we ever see another running back in Green Bay like we've enjoyed the last few years.
I suspect Jacobs' YPC is going to trend sharply upwards very soon, but as it stands right now, it's hard to deny that we gave up one of the most purely productive running backs in the history of not only the Green Bay Packers but the entire NFL and replaced him with someone who statistically seems very unlikely to ever hit the mark left by Jones. But, odds are, Jones is unlikely to clear that bar himself going forward over the next couple of years.
Jacobs may never be the RB Jones was, and in fact, almost certainly will not be. Statistically, it's very unlikely, because Jones truly was a historically great running back - I mean, truly great. Our chances of scooping up another consecutive player who is one of the most productive RBs of all time is like expecting to have 2 all-time great quarterbacks in a row, let alone 3 - and who in their right mind could ever believe something like that can, happen, right?
Totally agree. I just hope the second piece of the puzzle is a rookie, rather than another FA, but I'd be shocked if he signed another UFA for the position when we have so many Day Two picks in a year with so many Day Two RBs.