Quote Originally Posted by Smidgeon View Post
Correct on the fifth year, not correct on the fourth year.

Jordy Nelson was a D2 and had 300 yard seasons his first two years, a 580 yard season his third, then exploded his fourth year with 51% more catches and 117% more yards versus the prior year (1263 yards on 63 receptions following a 582/45 season).

Donald Driver was a D7 (like Janis) who only had 13 receptions his third year. In his fourth year, he had 70 for 1064 yards, basically an insane turnaround completely unpredictable according to stats.
James Jones' rookie season was pretty good (676 on 47), but he didn't top it again until his fourth year (679 on 50), Cobb's second season was his breakout season, and Greg Jennings started like Jones but then kept improving every year.

Right now, Janis' stats are barely less than Driver's thus far. The difference is Driver entered his fourth season as a starter. Janis is still WR5 or WR6 right now. It is unlikely he makes a big step like that this year. But considering how raw he was, it's possible he's a year or two behind Driver. If he puts up 20ish catches this year, he might still have a shot at a later breakout. If he puts out less than that, statistically it is unlikely he'll ever put out more than 10-15 catches per year.
Yes, but do Nelson, Adams, Cobb really matchup with Jennings, Driver, Jones?

Nelson was in a serious logjam. There have been snaps available to Janis during the long offensive drought and from injuries.

I would argue that we knew Nelson was good by Year 4, even if that was the first sign of the monster to come.