Official Patriots vs Packers Prediction Thread

[wist43]

I'm in the Pro Pickem and played my fair share of time at a poker table.

No decent poker player shows his hand unless necessary before or after the hand is completely played unless entirely necessary. I'm not sure as I begin this post if I'll let that slide.

Let's see:

The NE Pats have won by an average of 24 points in their last four games; all wins and three Vs Top Tier Teams (Denver, Indy and Detroit).

Since their Bye Week the Green Bay Packers are 3-0 and also won by an average of 24 points margin of victory. Those wins included one over a Top tier team at home or the Philadelphia Eagles.

I see that the Packers are 3 point favourites which only means to me that the public will bet NE; and taking NE on the road and three points Vs the Packers is a decent bet. Let me check that. Yes 56% of the public is picking the Pats plus three (3) points.

I see there are members of this board that actually get upset if any member analyzes a judgement against the Green Bay Packers. Holy shit ! It is as it is and that will be when it's over.

I'm not sure what the result of this matchup will be today. If there's one member of this board who is otherwise. Please get back to me with your system for predictions. Why? Because your special.

I'll be pleased to offer you my E-mail.

For this particular game there are 2 overriding variables, and the other factors are relatively constant - not perfectly constant of course, but relatively so.

The 2 overriding variables are as I've mentioned previously 1) the weather, and 2) dunderdummy

The relative constants would be 1) the excellent coaching and consistancy of Belichick, and 2) the fact that well coached, fairly stout defenses routinely turn our high powered offense into a pretty average one, i.e. we don't overcome their strength, they overcome ours.

That being the case - I think we can expect that their defense will keep Rodgers and co. in check for the most part... probably within the 24 to 31 pt range.

If that is the case, the question becomes - can dunderdummy and our defense hold their offense under 31 pts?? I seriously doubt it, but that's where the 2 variables come in...

If it is cold weather/poor weather game - that evens the playing field a bit. If we can expect that their defense will stifle Rodgers and co. regardless, poor weather could work against their offense and help close the gap.

The second variable is dunderdummy. We'll know pretty quickly what his gameplan will look like. If his first nickel look is the 2-4, we're sunk and I'd say we stand very little chance; if on the other hand, he comes out and plays a lot of 3-3, plays matchup zones underneath, doubles Gronk, and keeps the 2 ILB/Bartenders off the field - then we have shot.

Baltimore is one of the teams that consistently gives the Patriots a lot of trouble - and they play a shit-ton of 3-3 against them, and scheme exactly as I've described, i.e. matchup zone, and doubling Gronk... I find it amazing that more teams don't play them that way. That said, I surely don't expect Capers to do the right thing - given his druthers, he'll play 2-4 all day long, concede 15 yd passes all day long, and not give a flying shit about stopping the run all day long - that's who he is.

We can play with them if we had a competent defensive coord., but of course we don't... so I think the odds are against us that we win this game.

[woodbuck27]

For this particular game there are 2 overriding variables, and the other factors are relatively constant - not perfectly constant of course, but relatively so.

The 2 overriding variables are as I've mentioned previously 1) the weather, and 2) dunderdummy

The relative constants would be 1) the excellent coaching and consistancy of Belichick, and 2) the fact that well coached, fairly stout defenses routinely turn our high powered offense into a pretty average one, i.e. we don't overcome their strength, they overcome ours.

That being the case - I think we can expect that their defense will keep Rodgers and co. in check for the most part... probably within the 24 to 31 pt range.

If that is the case, the question becomes - can dunderdummy and our defense hold their offense under 31 pts?? I seriously doubt it, but that's where the 2 variables come in...

If it is cold weather/poor weather game - that evens the playing field a bit. If we can expect that their defense will stifle Rodgers and co. regardless, poor weather could work against their offense and help close the gap.

The second variable is dunderdummy. We'll know pretty quickly what his gameplan will look like. If his first nickel look is the 2-4, we're sunk and I'd say we stand very little chance; if on the other hand, he comes out and plays a lot of 3-3, plays matchup zones underneath, doubles Gronk, and keeps the 2 ILB/Bartenders off the field - then we have shot.

Baltimore is one of the teams that consistently gives the Patriots a lot of trouble - and they play a shit-ton of 3-3 against them, and scheme exactly as I've described, i.e. matchup zone, and doubling Gronk... I find it amazing that more teams don't play them that way. That said, I surely don't expect Capers to do the right thing - given his druthers, he'll play 2-4 all day long, concede 15 yd passes all day long, and not give a flying shit about stopping the run all day long - that's who he is.

We can play with them if we had a competent defensive coord., but of course we don't... so I think the odds are against us that we win this game.

Your not wrong wist43.

RE: weather on Sunday 30m Nov. 2014:

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourcei...y+30+Nov.+2014

39 Degrees F; Mostly cloudy; Precipitation 0 %; Humidity 69% and wind 16 MPH

[woodbuck27]

For this particular game there are 2 overriding variables, and the other factors are relatively constant - not perfectly constant of course, but relatively so.

The 2 overriding variables are as I've mentioned previously 1) the weather, and 2) dunderdummy

The relative constants would be 1) the excellent coaching and consistancy of Belichick, and 2) the fact that well coached, fairly stout defenses routinely turn our high powered offense into a pretty average one, i.e. we don't overcome their strength, they overcome ours.

That being the case - I think we can expect that their defense will keep Rodgers and co. in check for the most part... probably within the 24 to 31 pt range.

If that is the case, the question becomes - can dunderdummy and our defense hold their offense under 31 pts?? I seriously doubt it, but that's where the 2 variables come in...

If it is cold weather/poor weather game - that evens the playing field a bit. If we can expect that their defense will stifle Rodgers and co. regardless, poor weather could work against their offense and help close the gap.

The second variable is dunderdummy. We'll know pretty quickly what his gameplan will look like. If his first nickel look is the 2-4, we're sunk and I'd say we stand very little chance; if on the other hand, he comes out and plays a lot of 3-3, plays matchup zones underneath, doubles Gronk, and keeps the 2 ILB/Bartenders off the field - then we have shot.

Baltimore is one of the teams that consistently gives the Patriots a lot of trouble - and they play a shit-ton of 3-3 against them, and scheme exactly as I've described, i.e. matchup zone, and doubling Gronk... I find it amazing that more teams don't play them that way. That said, I surely don't expect Capers to do the right thing - given his druthers, he'll play 2-4 all day long, concede 15 yd passes all day long, and not give a flying shit about stopping the run all day long - that's who he is.

We can play with them if we had a competent defensive coord., but of course we don't... so I think the odds are against us that we win this game.

Your not wrong wist43.

RE: weather on Sunday 30m Nov. 2014:

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourcei...y+30+Nov.+2014

39 Degrees F; Mostly cloudy; Precipitation 0 %; Humidity 69% and wind 16 MPH